Possible Moves of Democrats on the Chessboard of the House of Representatives

Two years after Donald Trump took actions and made decisions as President of the United States that were in many cases completely contrary to the paths taken by previous American presidents, on Tuesday, the House of Representatives once again fell into the hands of the Democrats, the party opposing Mr. Trump. In this context, U.S. foreign policy has also not been immune to Mr. Trump's innovations: he has shown through his stances against Russia, Mexico, other Latin American countries, China, and most importantly the European Union, that he can easily disregard his country's long-standing relations with America's allies. Now, with the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 6, and their current dominance over the House of Representatives, many eyes from outside the U.S. are likely fixed on Washington to see what the Democrats will do with Trump's policies. Although the structure of the political system in the U.S. is such that foreign policy is largely in the hands of the executive branch and the White House, where the President and his advisors make decisions, there is one area where House Democrats can indirectly influence the White House's policy. That area is the budget: waging war, pursuing diplomacy, and conducting intelligence operations outside the United States, all of which fall under foreign policy, require funding. This is where House Democrats can assert themselves, push their positions onto the White House, or at least influence the positions of the President and his advisors. Now, Democrats can determine which bills are brought to the floor in the House and play a larger role in the national budgeting process and legislation. This brings U.S. foreign policy into play. The Democrats' greater leeway in the legislative process may lead to a tougher and more severe stance against, for example, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Mike Eckel, a reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in Washington, has examined four areas of foreign policy that have been of particular importance to the Trump administration: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and finally the special counsel investigation by Robert Mueller, which is also indirectly related to Russia. Donald Trump withdrew his country from the nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA in May of this year, an agreement that some analysts consider Barack Obama's greatest achievement in foreign policy. In recent months, the Trump administration has tightened the noose around the Islamic Republic day by day, a trend that peaked recently with the latest round of sanctions against Tehran. Since the decision-making power regarding various sanctions, including economic sanctions, lies with the White House in Mr. Trump's hands, it cannot be expected that Democrats will adopt a policy that ultimately benefits the Islamic Republic. However, House Democrats have the power to summon Mr. Trump's ministers and advisors to testify before Congress to explain, for example, the government's rationale for further sanctions on Iran. It should also be noted that after the midterm elections, the Senate is still in Republican hands, and some senators, including Tom Cotton, are seeking even tougher sanctions and penalties against the Islamic Republic. Conversely, among these Republicans are senators like Rand Paul and Mike Lee, who are staunchly opposed to any allocation of funds and budgets for war, even with Tehran. Saudi Arabia is America's closest Muslim ally in the Middle East and has over $100 billion in arms purchase contracts with Washington, a fact that Donald Trump even referenced in the case of the death of the critical journalist Jamal Khashoggi. However, this billions of dollars and close relationship seemingly cannot erase the issue of Mr. Khashoggi's death from memory, although like much of U.S. foreign policy in recent years, the Trump administration has kept relations with Riyadh under scrutiny and made decisions about it. Now, it can be expected that Democrats in the House of Representatives will pressure the White House on the Khashoggi case and scrutinize the actions of Jared Kushner, who has been in charge of much of the Middle Eastern issues over the past two years and reports indicate he has a close relationship with Saudi leaders, especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In this context, the ongoing civil war in Yemen should not be overlooked. For several months, several human rights organizations, along with the United Nations, have reported a 'humanitarian catastrophe' in Yemen, an issue that several members of Congress in the U.S., including Eliot Engel, have addressed and called for oversight of Saudi-led operations in Yemen. Mr. Engel, who is a serious critic of the Kremlin and an advocate for human rights activists in Russia, is likely to chair the Foreign Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives. Eliot Engel will also play an important role in U.S.-Russia relations due to his history regarding this country; Engel, alongside Adam Smith, another serious critic of Vladimir Putin's regime among Democrats, is said to likely chair the Military Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives. However, it should be noted that regarding Russia and its incursions into Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, both Democrats and Republicans have been almost unanimous in their support for increasing pressure on Moscow even before the midterm elections on Tuesday. Thus, no significant change can be expected in this area. However, the name Russia has now been connected to internal U.S. affairs since Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election. U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia intervened with the aim of ensuring Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Moscow has denied this accusation, and Trump has also rejected the allegations of collusion with Russia and obstruction of justice. Robert Mueller, the special counsel in this case, is set to answer the question of whether Russia truly interfered in the U.S. elections or not. This is an area that many experts believe will be immediately transformed with the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives. Unlike the Republicans and Donald Trump, who have increasingly pressured Mueller, Democrats will now seek more extensive and thorough investigations, led by Adam Schiff, who is likely to chair the Intelligence Committee in the House; he now has the freedom to seek more evidence and documents and formally subpoena individuals to testify in committee. With the Democrats' victory in the House of Representatives, there is now a risk for Trump that if he exerts more pressure on Mueller or even fires him, he will face the wrath of the Democrats, who have the power to initiate his impeachment process.