Potential Objectives of an Israeli Attack on Iran; From Nuclear and Oil Facilities to IRGC Centers

Israel claims that the Islamic Republic of Iran made a "big mistake" with the wave of missile attacks on the country on October 1st and will "pay the price" for it. This was the second direct military attack by Iran on Israel in 45 years of hostility between the two countries, ending with only one casualty, a Palestinian worker originally from Gaza but residing in the West Bank. An American official told Reuters two days after the wave of attacks that Washington believes Israel has not yet reached a final decision on how to respond to Iran. Israeli media also reported that their country is coordinating with the U.S. regarding Israel's response to Iran. NBC mentioned a timeframe of "the next few days" for Israeli operations against Iran. Reuters, NBC, and Israeli media have discussed the options that Benjamin Netanyahu's government has for responding to Iran's missile attack. NBC wrote that Israel, if it chooses, can attack a wide range of targets in Iran with its "far superior" air force against Iran's "relatively weak" air defenses; from military and intelligence sites to senior commanders, oil terminals, refineries, or even Iran's nuclear sites. CNN has also published a map of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) centers across Iran that could be among the potential targets of an Israeli attack. Speculation about potential targets in Iran that Israel might attack includes: military facilities. Some analysts believe Israel is likely to target Iran's military facilities, especially those from which the ballistic missiles used in the attack on October 1st were launched. Iran's air defense systems and missile launch platforms could also be on the target list. Iran used long-range ballistic missiles in its attack on Israel, but analysts told Reuters that if Israel targets Iran's short-range ballistic missiles, which Tehran has been accused of supplying to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, it would be considered an "unprecedented" response. NBC also noted that striking intelligence centers, which are often located at Iranian military bases, air defense systems, and Iranian drone movement sites would be good options. According to American experts, Washington considers an Israeli attack on Iranian military targets a "proportional" response, especially since the risk of civilian casualties is low. IRGC centers across the country. CNN has listed the IRGC military centers that could be targeted; conventional military bases that house missile silos, launch platforms, and command and control centers. These include the Tabriz missile base, the Kermanshah missile base, the Imam Ali missile base in Khorramabad, which is an underground missile shelter, the Arak missile base, Iran's space research center in Tehran province, Iran's space organization in Tehran province, the IRGC Aerospace Command headquarters in Tehran province, the IRGC command and control center in Tehran province, the IRGC Research and Self-Sufficiency Jihad Organization in Tehran province, the Army Ground Forces Research and Self-Sufficiency Organization in Tehran province, the Aerospace Industries Organization in Tehran province, the Fajr Industries Group in Tehran province, the Shahrud Space Center in Semnan province, which is an IRGC missile launch site, the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Semnan, which is Iran's missile and satellite launch center, the Isfahan missile complex where missiles are produced, the missile production site in Shiraz, the Hajiabad missile base in Hormozgan province, which is considered a deployment site for solid-fuel missiles and is reportedly underground. Among these targets, missiles were launched toward Israel from the Imam Ali base in Khorramabad and Arak. Nuclear sites. An attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has the potential to delay Tehran's programs in this area for some time. Iran's nuclear program sites are scattered across many parts of the country, and a few of them, such as the uranium enrichment facilities in Fordow and Natanz, operate deep underground, beneath heavy layers of rock and concrete. U.S. assessments indicate that the only effective way to strike these underground nuclear facilities is by using large American bombers carrying massive bombs, which Israel currently lacks. Israeli F-35 fighters might be able to attack some of Iran's nuclear sites without relying on the U.S., but that would not yield the desired result. A targeted attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, which could have serious consequences, has already faced open opposition from the U.S. President. Richard Hooker, a former officer on the National Security Council at the White House, stated that while Israel might be able to attack these facilities, it would put the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran in a position where they would have to respond with an even stronger reaction. Oil and gas infrastructure. In recent days, Israeli media analysts have identified Iran's oil and gas industries as one of the options for a potential Israeli attack. Some specifically mentioned the "Star of the Persian Gulf" facilities and Khark Island, refineries, and oil sites in Bandar Abbas, similar to the two recent Israeli attacks on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen. Israeli security experts say that striking Iran's oil and gas industry would hit the economy of a government that spends its budget not on the welfare of its people but on equipping and arming its proxy forces, which have targeted Israel in repeated attacks from Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, the West Bank, and Iran itself over the past year, engaging the country in "seven fronts of war." NBC also mentioned the potential strikes on gasoline production refineries in the country, whose consumption is primarily within Iran, and the impact on the global economy would be limited. The network did not rule out a broader attack on Iran's oil and gas facilities in a wide area, such as oil transport terminals for export, in which case the Khark oil terminal, which carries more than 90% of Iran's oil exports, would be at risk. Petrochemical plants and power plants were also mentioned in this context. Joe Biden, the U.S. President, stated on the evening of October 4th that the U.S. is "discussing" the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities. However, he did not say whether his administration supports this approach or not. Just those few words from him were enough to cause oil prices in global markets to rise by five percent. NBC News wrote that the repercussions of an attack on Iran's oil facilities in the global economy are not the only "punishment"; as Iran might also "mine" the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, according to Reuters, a potential attack on Iran's oil facilities carries the risk that it might push Tehran to attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries; a matter that would further increase fuel prices, especially a month before the U.S. presidential election, where gasoline prices are always a key issue for American voters. With this in mind, David Des Roches, a former U.S. Defense Department official, believes that concerns about the consequences of rising oil prices globally will not deter Israel from its potential decision to attack Iran's oil facilities. Increased sanctions on Iran and cyber attacks. In recent days, Israel has called on its Western allies to impose further sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran and designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Joe Biden has spoken about his administration's readiness to impose new sanctions on Iran. Analysts believe that Israel also has the option to utilize its high capabilities in the cyber warfare arena. Recent attacks attributed to Israel involved the explosion of thousands of pagers and radios used by Hezbollah forces, drawing attention to Unit 8200 in the Israeli military intelligence organization. Western security sources said that the design of those explosions was the work of this specialized cyber warfare and intelligence unit of the Israeli army. Some former Israeli security officials stated that any country behind those explosions has been engaged in complex design and operations for years. Commando attacks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Tuesday night about Iran's "big mistake" and the "price" that Tehran's leaders will pay, with the head of Mossad sitting beside him; a less common occurrence. Netanyahu mentioned Hassan Nasrallah, Mohsen (Fouad Shakir), Yahya Sinwar, and Mohammad Deif, who "did not understand Israel's firm resolve to defend itself." The three names he mentioned have been killed in various Israeli attacks recently, and there has been no news about the fate of Yahya Sinwar, the hidden leader of Hamas in Gaza's tunnels, for over a year. It is suggested that Netanyahu meant that if the leadership and military officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran do not understand Israel's "firm resolve" in "self-defense," they may face a fate similar to that of their proxy group leaders. Iran attributed the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the former head of Hamas's political bureau, on July 31 during his stay at the IRGC's residence in northern Tehran to Israel; Israel remained silent on this matter, but Netanyahu stated last year that he had ordered his country's security agencies to eliminate Hamas leaders wherever they are found. The list of those eliminated in Israeli operations has significantly lengthened in the past three weeks, even including Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah.