Price Stability in the Food Market of Mehr Month

In recent days, both centers for the production and dissemination of economic statistics in Iran have confirmed through their reports on inflation index changes in Mehr month that the inflation rate in Iran's economy continues to decrease. According to the Central Bank's report on the inflation rate for Mehr month of 1394 (2015), the average inflation rate for the reported month reached 14.8 percent. This rate was reported as 13.3 percent in the statistical report from the Statistical Center of Iran. In the report from the Statistical Center regarding Mehr month inflation, the average price index for the 'food and beverages' group, which has a weight of 25.1 percent in the inflation calculation, increased by 11 percent, which is less than the average changes in the general price level. The point-to-point inflation rate for the 'food and beverages' index in Mehr month of 1394 compared to the same month last year saw an increase of 8.4 percent. According to the Statistical Center's report, the price index for this group in Mehr month of 1394 decreased by 0.8 percent compared to Shahrivar month. The Central Bank's report on inflation index changes also shows that the price index for the main 'food and beverages' group in Mehr 1394 experienced a growth of 7.1 percent compared to Mehr of the previous year, while this price index decreased by 0.4 percent compared to Shahrivar month. An examination of the changes in the selected commodity basket by Radio Farda in Mehr month shows slight differences. The ten items whose price changes are monitored in Radio Farda's selected basket are considered to be commonly consumed items in Iranian households' food baskets. The average price changes for this commodity basket in Mehr month of 1394 compared to the previous month, Shahrivar 1394, showed a slight decrease of 0.1 percent, which can be interpreted as price stability for these items over the two months. The highest price increase during this two-month period was recorded for onions, which experienced a price increase of over 4 percent. The most significant price decrease was for tomatoes, which recorded a decrease of approximately 15 percent from Shahrivar to Mehr this year. Details of price changes for other items in Radio Farda's selected basket during the two time periods of Shahrivar and Mehr 1394 can be seen in Table 1. Changing the basis for comparing price changes from Shahrivar 1394 to Mehr 1393 yields different results, although the range of this difference is not extensive and noteworthy. The average price of Radio Farda's selected commodity basket in Mehr month this year compared to Mehr last year saw an increase of 0.8 percent, which, if we overlook this increase of less than one percent, can be assessed as a stable and consolidated market for these ten items over the year from last Mehr to this Mehr. During this one-year period, the highest price increase was for domestic first-grade rice, which faced a price growth of over 7 percent, while the most significant price drop was recorded for eggs, which saw a decrease of more than 9 percent for a 30-egg carton from Mehr 1393 to Mehr 1394. Details of price changes for other items in the selected commodity basket during the two time periods of Mehr 1393 and Mehr 1394 can be seen in Table 2. Meanwhile, the average producer inflation rate remaining in single digits in Mehr 1394 could indicate that the path of decreasing inflation may continue in the coming months. However, the implementation of the government's anti-recession policy package, which is accompanied by expansionary policies, is considered a deterrent factor against the reduction of inflation momentum. The government's shift in monetary policies over the past two years is the main concern of critics of the anti-recession policy package, who believe that implementing this package could undermine the government's achievement in controlling inflation momentum. The remaining months of 1394 and the early months of 1395 will be a testing ground for various forces affecting the inflation index to determine whether the final outcome of these forces will favor the continuation of inflation control or whether the inflation index will once again take an upward trajectory. In this context, the relative stability of food prices in Shahrivar, the decrease in the inflation rate; Statistical Center: 13.6 percent, Central Bank: 14.8 percent, the anti-recession package could be 'inflationary', the head of Danesh: demand shortage due to the poverty of the masses, unveiling of the 'anti-recession package' of Rouhani's government aimed at stimulating demand.