Primakov Center: Iran's Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons Would Be Detrimental to Russia

The "Primakov Center" has compiled a report on the current state of relations between Russia and Iran, presented during a meeting in Moscow, which states that Iran's potential turn to nuclear weapons under Israeli threats "would be detrimental to Russia." Yevgeny Primakov, who was once Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, and Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia, passed away in 2015, and that same year the "Center for International Cooperation Research" was established in his honor. As he was considered an expert on the Middle East, Middle Eastern studies are one of the main areas of this research center, and its experts are often advisors to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The new report on Russia-Iran relations was prepared under the supervision of Alexander Mariasov, who has worked in the Russian Foreign Ministry since the 1970s and served as Russia's ambassador to Iran from 2001 to 2005. According to this report, sanctions, international isolation, and the deterioration of relations with the West have intertwined the interests of Russia and Iran, and the two countries are moving towards a "strategic alliance" while expanding trade and technical-military cooperation. It is expected that a strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries will be signed by the Presidents of Russia and Iran in the near future. Based on the report from the "Primakov Center," the war in Ukraine on one hand and the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA on the other have created a greater convergence between Moscow and Tehran. "The wave of sanctions and increasing pressure from the West, which seeks to increase the isolation of Russia and Iran, has put these two countries in the same boat." According to this report, Iran and Russia are "record holders of sanctions"; Iran is at the top of the blacklist in terms of "the duration of sanctions" and Russia, which has been sanctioned three times more than Iran, is also at the top. At the same time, the two countries, which actively cooperate in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, have "bypassed sanctions with the help of their friends" and reduced the harmful effects of these restrictions. Furthermore, cooperation between Moscow and Tehran with non-Western countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS is expanding. The report adds that Iran has become a member of these organizations "with Moscow's support" and has also signed a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union. Meanwhile, the authors claim that Russia and Iran are "constantly under pressure" from the U.S. and its allies, and for this purpose, "the U.S. uses Ukraine against Russia and Israel against Iran." The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, "the President who prioritized expanding relations with Russia," has created a "pause" in the preparations for signing the strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran. However, since "relations with Russia are a priority for the Islamic Republic and are fully supported by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, no issue will hinder the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran." According to the authors, the strategic cooperation agreement "strengthens Iran's position as an influential regional player and brings a strong ally to Russia in the Middle East." The report from the "Primakov Center" traces the regional cooperation between Russia and Iran back to joint diplomatic efforts to end the Tajikistan war and extends to cooperation in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad. Relations with the Taliban government and efforts to alleviate the crisis in Afghanistan are other common points mentioned. Experts from the "Primakov Center" cautiously refer to the differences in the positions of the two countries on regional issues. Among other things, while emphasizing "alignment in strongly condemning Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon," it is noted that Moscow seeks the establishment of an independent Israeli and Palestinian state, while Tehran seeks the destruction of Israel and "while Russia is trying to resolve this crisis through diplomatic means, Tehran aims for the military liberation of Palestinian territories, including by supporting proxy forces and forming a resistance axis." The report states that a potential change in Tehran's position and a turn towards nuclear weapons under Israeli threats "would be detrimental to Russia," "for this reason, Moscow strives to stabilize the situation in the Middle East." The report does not mention Moscow's withdrawal from confronting Israeli attacks against Iranian targets in Syria or other disagreements between Russia and Iran in Syria, but instead links the escalation of tensions in the Middle East to "Washington's misguided policies" and the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. Furthermore, experts from this Russian research center claim that Moscow has always been a supporter of the Western nuclear agreement with Iran, while it is said that Russia's request for "reviewing the agreements reached" in the spring of 2022 effectively drove the final nail into the coffin of the JCPOA. The "Primakov Center" report downplays the differences between Russia and Iran in the Caucasus and claims that the disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh and U.S. and European intervention in this region have created "difficulties" in Russia-Iran cooperation. It is also emphasized that Russia and Iran are jointly concerned about the influence of Israel and Turkey in the Caucasus and "take joint steps to neutralize the presence of Western countries in this region." The authors refer to Moscow and Tehran's emphasis on the absence of third countries in the Caspian Sea; a clause that was added to the legal convention of this sea at the initiative of Moscow and Tehran. The report does not mention Russia's support for the Zangezur corridor, which Iran considers contrary to its national interests. At the beginning of this section, experts from the "Primakov Center" express confidence that "although Iran certainly cannot compensate for the losses caused by Russia's inability to access the Western market, its rich experience in circumventing sanctions can be very beneficial for the Russian economy." The closure of trade routes to the West has increased Iran's importance as a major transportation hub. For this reason, according to this report, the North-South corridor project, which has remained on paper for 20 years, has been initiated, and "it is expected that the cargo transported on this route will reach 100 million tons per year in the not-too-distant future." Meanwhile, according to the latest data from the Eurasian Bank, in the first eight months of 2024, about one million tons of cargo were transported from the eastern route (Russia-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran-India) and half a million tons from the western route (Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran); this data includes rail and maritime transport but does not account for road transport. Interestingly, despite mentioning technical-military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran in the title of this section, there is no mention of this cooperation, while many experts have repeatedly pointed out that Iran's military support for Russia's war against Ukraine has elevated the relations between the two countries to an unprecedented level and has prevented Russia from looking down on Iran.