Production in the Absence of Inputs

The industry has completed its eleventh month of stagnation; simultaneously, the cost of securing raw materials has reached a seven-year high, intensifying pressure on manufacturing enterprises. The September report from the Shahmkh index indicates that the approach of production and new orders to a neutral threshold does not yet signify the industry's exit from recession. The inventory of raw materials is low, exports are on a contraction path, and rising costs will soon be reflected in product prices. On the other hand, weak demand limits the full transfer of these costs to consumers, putting pressure on profit margins and liquidity for businesses. The decline in production expectations also reflects ongoing concerns. Overcoming this situation requires the easing of trade restrictions, facilitation of financial and currency exchanges, reduction of obstacles to goods transfer, and resolution of international challenges. Without improved trade relations and sustainable access to raw materials and export markets, the industry's return to a growth path will be difficult.