"Proxy Wars" and the Threat to Iran's National Security

Recent ambiguous statements by Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, indicating that "foolish officials in the region are trying to bring proxy wars to Iran's borders" can be seen as the beginning of a sensitive and potentially dangerous transformation in Iran's national security variables. Khamenei's remarks, in light of four seemingly different events, reveal the sensitivity of hidden developments affecting Iran's foreign conditions and security situation. The first event was the widespread opposition from military officials and Khamenei himself to the visit of representatives from the International Atomic Energy Agency to military sites in Iran, alongside the announcement of their refusal to allow questioning of nuclear scientists in Western media, particularly American outlets. The second event was a threat from Yahya Rahim Safavi, former commander of the Revolutionary Guard and current military advisor to Khamenei, stating that "Zionists and Americans are aware of Iran's power and Hezbollah and know that over 80,000 missiles are ready to be fired at Tel Aviv and Haifa to destroy them." The third development was the reception of a Taliban delegation led by Tayyib Agha, a well-known Taliban figure, in Tehran, along with the expression of ignorance by Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, the Iranian government's spokesperson, regarding this visit. The fourth development was the consolidation of ISIS positions in Ramadi, the center of Anbar, the largest province in Iraq, and the connection of ISIS-controlled territories from Iraq to northern and eastern Syria. Within a week of ISIS taking control of the Anbar provincial center, Iraqi Shiites, reportedly equipped and guided by Iran, alongside the Iraqi army, began operations to push ISIS forces back from Ramadi. According to reports confirmed by the Iraqi government, nearly 30,000 Shiite soldiers supported by Iran are currently stationed near Anbar, but their progress towards Ramadi has been very slow; this mirrors what was experienced during the month-long siege of Tikrit, which continued until the start of U.S. airstrikes against ISIS positions in Salah al-Din province. Over the past five years, since the so-called Arab Spring changes took shape in the region, Iran's borders have enjoyed relative calm. The initiation of nuclear negotiations between the Islamic Republic and the U.S. promised to create greater balance in foreign relations and stability in Iran's national security equations. However, recent developments related to Iran, occurring rapidly and simultaneously, alongside an increase in the Islamic Republic's military interventions abroad, particularly in Yemen and Iraq, will inevitably place the country in a complicated situation and lead it down an unmarked path; this is what Khamenei has warned about by mentioning the possibility of proxy wars spilling over into Iran's borders without referring to the main underlying causes. If "proxy wars" are drawn to Iran's borders, the efforts of Rouhani's government in conducting nuclear negotiations and their outcomes could also be at risk of being neutralized. The spokesperson's expression of ignorance regarding the Taliban delegation's visit to Tehran is not a sign of his lack of knowledge about the meeting, but rather an indication of the government's dissatisfaction with parallel and provocative actions within the ruling body—apparently, the responsibility for issuing visas and controlling borders (airports) still lies with the government, and the spokesperson cannot remain unaware of a foreign delegation's visit to the country. Undoubtedly, Khamenei's ambiguous statements regarding proxy wars are directed towards Iran's western borders (Iraq) and not the shared borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The capture of the Anbar provincial center by ISIS has made the Islamic Republic concerned about the threat to Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus and somewhat worried about increasing pressure on Haider al-Abadi's government in Baghdad. Should Assad fall, the situation for Shiites supported by Iran in Lebanon would change drastically. The apparent pressure on the areas of influence of the Islamic Republic in Syria and Iraq, along with increased aggressive actions by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, has alarmed the Islamic Republic and prompted military and security officials to move pieces in Iran's eastern borders. In this context, the invitation and reception of the Taliban in Tehran can be seen as a threat of proxy war against the U.S. and the two countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan, with which the Islamic Republic claims to have friendly relations. Although there has not yet been an official reaction from the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan or Washington regarding the Taliban delegation's visit to Tehran in the media, it is expected that this event has been shared with the Islamic Republic's officials by official sources. In recent weeks, while continuing the nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and the 1+5 group, the tone of military officials and the leader of the Islamic Republic, particularly regarding foreign issues, has become much harsher than before. A part of the Islamic Republic's governance, especially military and security elements, does not agree with the ongoing nuclear negotiations. This part of the governance, due to its control over policymaking in military and security matters, is able to bypass the government in taking actions that can have a negative impact on Iran's national security. The policies and actions of this group, particularly regarding Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, have faced localized failures in recent months. The return of an Iranian aid-carrying plane from Yemen's borders and the unloading of the Iranian ship 'Najat' in Djibouti are examples of these failures. If uncalculated new movements are designed in Iran's eastern borders in retaliation for being pushed back in other positions, maintaining security in the country's western borders will become more difficult than before. This is a danger that the leader of the Islamic Republic warns about, but he refrains from mentioning the main driving factors and underlying conditions of the danger.