Quiet Progress in Missile Technology at Shahroud Site

The New York Times reported on Wednesday, May 23, that activities continue at a missile site in Iran near the city of Shahroud, in Semnan province. This detailed report is based on the findings and opinions of 'five independent experts' who, by examining structures and 'ground signs' in satellite images, say the signs 'strongly indicate' that long-range missile technology is being worked on at this location. However, The New York Times emphasizes that analyzing these signs does not 'prove' this and that Iran may only be working on medium-range missiles. According to the report, researchers from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California discovered ongoing work at the Shahroud site, located 35 kilometers southeast of the city, while reviewing Iranian television programs about Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam. They found clues indicating that Tehrani Moghaddam 'was overseeing the construction of a secret site in a remote desert just before his death, which remains active today.' Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam (right); the word 'Shahroud' can be read on the cardboard box on the left. Following an explosion in November 2011 at an ammunition depot of the IRGC in Bidganeh, near the city of Malard, 20 kilometers from Tehran, in addition to Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, 16 other IRGC forces were killed. At that time, Tehrani Moghaddam was identified as the head of the IRGC's Self-Sufficiency and Industrial Research Organization and the founder of the IRGC's 'Artillery and Missile Unit' during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war. The state-run Iran newspaper stated in November 2011 that he was also one of the 'founders of the missile unit of Hezbollah Lebanon.' According to Tehrani Moghaddam's brother, the Malard explosion occurred while he was testing 'an intercontinental ballistic missile.' He later retracted his statement. Middlebury researchers, after 'weeks' of examining satellite images, found that work at the Shahroud site 'is focused on advanced rocket engines and rocket fuel, and work is often done at night.' Additionally, based on images taken over several months and years, the number of structures at this site has increased. Alireza Miryousefi, the spokesperson at Iran's UN office, responded to the researchers' findings in an email to The New York Times, stating, 'We do not comment on military matters.' The New York Times explains that the existence of this missile site and its continued activity does not, in itself, violate any international and formal agreements. However, if Iran's activity in long-range missiles is proven, it could be assumed that tensions between Tehran and Washington would escalate. This report comes just days after the U.S. Secretary of State recently intensified pressure on the Islamic Republic in his first speech in this position, announcing the imposition of 'the toughest sanctions in history' against Tehran. Mr. Pompeo, on Monday, May 20, outlined 12 conditions for reaching a new nuclear agreement with Iran in his speech at the Heritage Foundation, which faced a negative response from Tehran. One of these conditions states: 'Iran must end its ballistic missile program and production, as well as any testing and development of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.' Earlier, in November 2017, the Commander of the IRGC had stated that 'Americans should be assured that the more sanctions and pressures increase, the volume, range, and production of Iran's missiles will accelerate.' While examining satellite images, Middlebury researchers also noticed the existence of an underground tunnel with 'heavy traffic in and out of it.' However, according to The New York Times, what has drawn the most attention from these experts is 'the absence of tanks or refueling stations' at the Shahroud site. This could mean that the Shahroud site is a place for manufacturing engines for missiles that 'use solid fuel.' Producing solid fuel is much more dangerous and difficult than liquid, but it has numerous military applications in addition to civilian programs. According to missile expert David Wright, the focus of the Shahroud site on 'solid fuel engines indicates that if a space program is also established there, the goal is to work on missile technology.' According to Mr. Wright, using solid fuel 'is an easy way to build intercontinental ballistic missile technology.' The issue of ballistic missile production and testing in Iran is one of the issues emphasized by the Trump administration in the U.S., which has repeatedly stated that testing such missiles, even if it does not violate the text of the nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA, violates the 'spirit of the JCPOA.' Resolution 2231, which was adopted by the UN Security Council after the signing of the agreement in July 2015 in Vienna between Iran and six world powers to resolve the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, prohibits Tehran from testing any missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Iran claims that 'the tested missiles are not designed to carry nuclear warheads,' and therefore its missile tests do not contradict the nuclear agreement, the JCPOA.