Raisi's Entry Will Quickly Polarize the Elections

Sadegh Zibakalam wrote in the editorial of Shargh newspaper: "Mr. Raisi's entry will quickly polarize the elections, similar to the second Khordad of 76. If the result is not to the liking of the principlists, it will not be like the failure of principlists (such as) Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf or Jalili, but the consequences will be different" and "the subsequent consequences of a possible failure will affect his long-term future plans." The editorialist points out that "if the custodian of the Astan Quds does not run in the elections, the situation will be somewhat clear. Hassan Rouhani has a suitable capacity for victory in the elections." However, if Ebrahim Raisi enters the electoral arena, Hassan Rouhani's victory "will not be that simple; apart from the fact that for Raisi's supporters, the issue will be very significant, they will mobilize all their resources from state media to their own press and other affiliated media in favor of Mr. Raisi. On the other hand, organizations like the Combatant Clergy and the Society of Teachers of Qom Seminary, along with many clerics, will support him. Additionally, attacks on the eleventh government and the president and reformists will intensify, and finally, the principlists' campaign will be in a position to discredit the actions of the past four years." However, the important point is that "from a political sociology perspective, Mr. Raisi's candidacy will not significantly affect the principlists' vote basket." According to Sadegh Zibakalam, Ebrahim Raisi's presence in the elections will create "a serious wave and movement among the reformist vote base and the silent and even non-religious votes. The concern over the possibility of a principlist victory may lead many who currently do not intend to participate in the elections to vote against their wishes to prevent the success of the principlists, and naturally, their choice will be Hassan Rouhani." The Aftab Yazd newspaper dedicated its front page to the meeting of Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi with Ebrahim Raisi, titled "Raisi, Mesbah's Selected Candidate," stating that Mesbah Yazdi, "a staunch supporter of Ahmadinejad in 84 and 88 and also a supporter of Baqeri Lankarani before his disqualification and then Saeed Jalili in 92, has now backed Ebrahim Raisi in 96 and has brought his candidate out from behind the scenes." This newspaper emphasized that "although it is said that Ebrahim Raisi appears moderate and separate from extremism, the truth is that all evidence shows he is the candidate introduced by Ayatollah Mesbah and the steadfastness group, which the principlist faction, amidst its current disarray and disorder, has no choice but to support this candidate and reach a consensus around Raisi." The Khorasan newspaper, in its front page on Thursday, reported on the damages caused by a 6.0 magnitude earthquake in Mashhad and several counties in Razavi Khorasan, stating that the earthquake left at least two dead and seventeen injured. According to this newspaper, "Following the earthquake that occurred at 10:39:10 AM on Wednesday at a depth of 10 kilometers, many citizens rushed out of their homes in panic and gathered in open spaces. The intensity of this earthquake, which according to some reports has been unprecedented in recent years in this region and was felt in many cities of Razavi Khorasan, was such that several homes in some villages were reported to be up to 100% destroyed." Khorasan reported that this earthquake "caused extensive damage to some buildings in the cities of Fariman and the villages of Alghur, Kargash, Kamzar, Khanqah, Sarcheshmeh, and especially the village of Doqaleye Barashak, which is said to be the epicenter of the earthquake." A field reporter from this newspaper wrote from the village of Doqaleye Barashak that police officers at the entrance to this village "set up a checkpoint to maintain order and security and prevent unnecessary vehicles from entering the area, and in an open area along the main street of the village, a large number of villagers gathered together, while some other villagers, despite their homes being destroyed, refused to leave them." He noted that "most of the destroyed houses were made of adobe and had little strength." Khorasan also quoted Ali Rostami, the governor of Torbat Jam, stating: "Following the earthquake and reports received from other sections of the county, no casualties or injuries occurred, and damages of about 30 to 50 percent were reported in 315 residential units to the crisis management, with most of the damage occurring in the central sections, Nasrabad, and Salehabad, including the villages of Bagh Kashmir, Mousaabad, Chahmazar Sofla and Olya, Kamarchah Olya, Qaleh Sorkh Mousaabad, Gorband, Yakhk, Bidak, Kalateh Ghazi, Galarcheh, Shah Tut, and Mamizab." The Shahrvand newspaper also dedicated its front page to the Fariman earthquake, stating: "The 6.0 magnitude earthquake shook Razavi Khorasan for 30 seconds on Wednesday morning, after which several villages were destroyed. Following this severe earthquake, the earthquake-affected areas experienced 78 aftershocks by 5 PM yesterday, with the largest aftershock being 4.9 magnitude. In these tremors, four villages, Chalatemanar, Chalat Haji Kar, Khazarzar, and Chahmarzar, were between 40 to 100 percent destroyed." This newspaper also published statements from several citizens of Mashhad about "30 seconds of terror in Mashhad," quoting them as saying: "Following the earthquake and multiple aftershocks, many families have taken blankets and tents and plan to spend the night outside their homes in parks and green spaces," and "with the onset of these aftershocks, Mashhad residents fled their homes again. Fear has gripped all the residents of the area." Bahram Akasheh, the father of seismology in Iran, told Shahrvand that "there are 21 faults in Razavi Khorasan, including Khoshkrud, Torbat Jam, Binalud, Sabzevar, Dasht Bayaz, and Sarayan and Nishapur or Kopeh Dagh and Daruneh. Therefore, the existence of these faults indicated a major earthquake was expected. Thus, it was not surprising that such an earthquake occurred in this region," and even if aftershocks continue, "it would still not be surprising." According to Bahram Akasheh, "In the past 10 years, 127 earthquakes above 3.5 magnitude have shaken Razavi Khorasan and caused many deaths, with six of these earthquakes being above 5 magnitude, shaking the counties of Khaf with 5.4 magnitude in 1391, Nishapur with 5.5 magnitude in 1390, and Torbat Heydarieh with 5.7 magnitude in 1389," and the earthquake on Wednesday morning was "predictable due to the hazardous nature of this area." Several Iranian newspapers also dedicated their main headlines to the latest electoral developments. The Shargh newspaper, while publishing a cartoon of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hamid Baghaei on its front page titled "Facing the Camera, Back to Reality," wrote: "An interesting point about this meeting was the absence of principlist media; they coordinatedly refrained from covering Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's press conference in their media. In the absence of principlist media, 90% of the questions from domestic and foreign media focused on criticizing and questioning Ahmadinejad's past performance," and "the atmosphere of the former president's press conference was at times very tense and heated." Additionally, the Sharq newspaper wrote in its front page, "Rezaei and Qalibaf are going, Raisi's arrival is strengthening." This newspaper noted that "Wednesday was one of the news-heavy days in the principlist movement, as the fate of serious candidates for the elections became somewhat clear," stating that "Raisi's arrival and Qalibaf's absence are among the matters that have become clear in the principlist faction, and one of the definitive signs of his confirmed presence, which circulated widely on social media yesterday, was Raisi's meeting on the third of Farvardin with one of the high-ranking officials of the system." According to Shargh, "It was also heard that Raisi resigned from the Central Supervisory Board for the elections. Fars and Tasnim published this news, but ISNA wrote in another explanation that the meeting of the Supervisory Board for the twelfth presidential election will be held on Friday, and the spokesman for the Guardian Council also said that any news in this regard will be announced in today's meeting." Kayhan, in its front page titled "43 Days Until the Elections, Who is the President of the Twelfth Government?" named Ebrahim Raisi, Mehrdad Bazrpash, Saeed Jalili, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and Parviz Fattah as candidates for the principlist presidential election, but wrote: "The chain newspapers have expressed their concerns about Raisi's presence in the elections with severe attacks, and many reports against Raisi have been published in these newspapers." The Javan newspaper dedicated its front page to Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and published his electoral statement, quoting him as saying: "I have not personally requested candidacy, but I will help change this inefficient government." This newspaper, close to the Revolutionary Guards, simultaneously in its front page titled "Electoral Pause of US Sanctions," implicitly introduced Hassan Rouhani as the candidate supported by the US and Europe, writing: "American senators have said they do not want the review of the sanctions against Iran to lead to the defeat of Hassan Rouhani and the moderate faction in the Iranian elections; the president who, according to them, despite widespread internal criticism, is the architect of the nuclear agreement with the US, three European countries, China, and Russia." The Javan newspaper also wrote: "It is still unclear who suggested to the US Congress to halt this proposal ahead of the elections, especially since Iranian diplomatic officials have previously denied any unofficial contacts with the Trump administration. However, it can be speculated that European partners advised the US to stop the review of sanctions." The Etemad newspaper reported that Mohammad Jafar Montazeri, the Attorney General of the Islamic Republic's judiciary, on Wednesday during an interview with the state media announced "the release of several detained managers of Telegram channels in the coming days." However, regarding the reason for "the arrest of 12 managers of Telegram networks in the last days of 1395," he stated that "the channels that were closed and the individuals arrested in this regard were determined by the judge of the case to have committed acts against national security that were criminal acts." This newspaper referred to the question posed by five members of the tenth parliament, Ali Motahari, Mostafa Kaveh Kabi, Gholamreza Heydari, Mahmoud Sadeghi, and Alireza Rahimi, regarding these arrests from the ministers of justice, intelligence, interior, and culture, noting that Mahmoud Alavi, the Minister of Intelligence, said on Wednesday: "The government's position has been from the beginning to oppose these arrests. The government's view is that this issue should be resolved peacefully, and the channel managers should be released." The Jahanshanas newspaper reported on "the illegal increase of dairy prices," stating that "the autonomy of dairy industries" is the reason for these increases. This newspaper wrote, "While the Organization for Protection issued a notice to production, distribution, and supply units warning them not to increase prices without coordination and obtaining legal permits, the price of each cream, which was 2,500 tomans, has increased by about 17 percent to 3,000 tomans, and it is unclear under what authorization and from what time this price increase has been implemented." The Iran newspaper, close to the government, noted that "the special committee for the national report on the Plasco building incident" presented its report to Hassan Rouhani in a meeting, stating that according to this report, "the responsibility for the major maintenance of the Plasco building lay with the owner, namely the Foundation of the Oppressed, but despite warnings about the building's insecurity, the owner did not take effective action." It also stated that "the municipality was not sensitive about implementing Article 22 of the national building regulations to determine safe and secure maintenance and operation methods for existing buildings, while the implementation of the legal duties of the owner and the municipality to ensure the safety of the building did not require closing the building or preventing the continuation of business in the Plasco building, and safety measures were feasible." According to the Iran newspaper, this report also emphasized that "technical safety inspections of workshops located in the Plasco building were the legal duty of the Ministry of Cooperatives, which has neglected this matter."