Reactions in Russia and Ukraine to Iran's Missile Attacks on Israel

The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel has provided Russian officials with an opportunity to accuse the United States of "wrong policies" in the international arena, particularly in the Middle East. On October 1, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles at Israel, claiming that Israeli military bases were the targets of these attacks. Israel has warned of a "heavy price" for these attacks. Analysts believe that Russia, still embroiled in the war in Ukraine and unprecedented tensions with the West, will limit its response to merely "condemning the violence" and "emphasizing the need for diplomacy" regarding the escalating crisis in the Middle East. Some experts believe that Moscow may even benefit from this crisis. Moments after Iran's missile attack on Israel, Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, announced on her Telegram channel the "absolute failure of the Biden administration's policies in the Middle East." According to her, "a bloody tragedy with tens of thousands of casualties is unfolding, and the vague statements from the White House indicate America's complete helplessness regarding this crisis." In her view, "the efforts of her American counterparts have reached a dead end." Meanwhile, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, responded to reporters' questions about whether the West had deceived Iran by requesting no reaction to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, stating: "We believe the roots of the Middle East tragedy lie in the unilateral, exploitative, and irresponsible policies of the United States." On Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned Israel's ground operations in Lebanon, which began after the assassination of Hezbollah leaders, stating that these actions would lead to an increase in violence in the Middle East. Hezbollah is a militia group and also a political party that controls a large part of southern Lebanon and is on the U.S. terrorist list. In its statement, Russia expressed support for the government and people of Lebanon, referred to as a "friendly country to Russia," and urged Israel to "immediately cease any military movements and seek real ways to peacefully resolve the Middle East crisis." In recent days, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated: "Israel wants the U.S. to become involved in a war in the Middle East, but Iran is acting with utmost responsibility, and this approach should be welcomed." Meanwhile, the Kremlin spokesperson focused on maintaining neutrality. In response to reporters' direct questions about what steps Russia, which has strategic relations with Iran, would take in the event of a war between Iran and Israel, he simply stated: "We call on both sides to exercise restraint and end the violence." Dmitry Peskov said Moscow is in contact with all parties to "prevent civilian casualties and further escalation of violence." He acknowledged that developments in the Middle East are unfolding according to a "worrisome scenario." For years, Russia has been trying to define its policy in the Middle East in a way that regional tensions do not affect Moscow's approach. Russian diplomats have always boasted that Russia's relations with Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel, are "completely balanced" and "at a friendly level"; however, if this effort to "sit on two chairs" was not feasible, Moscow often sided with Israel while simultaneously promising friendship and support to Iran. Even at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine, the Kremlin tried to continue this approach, but Iran's assistance to Russia in circumventing Western sanctions and particularly Iran's military support for the Russian army in the war against Ukraine has led Moscow to lean towards Tehran. Since Hamas's attack on Israel last fall, tensions between Russia and Israel have become increasingly apparent. Moscow has repeatedly condemned Israeli military attacks on Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon and the killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. At the same time, Russia's interactions with Iran and its regional allies have significantly increased. Russia and Iran are set to sign a strategic cooperation agreement soon. During the Russian Prime Minister's visit to Tehran on October 1, his deputy stated: "Russia has shown the world that during a time of change and transformation of all previous equations in the international arena, Russia stands with Iran." Russian analysts' views on the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East suggest that domestic Russian media describe Israel's military operations in Gaza and Lebanon and Iran's missile attacks as "aggressive and illegitimate" while characterizing Iran's actions as "legal and justifiable." Additionally, Russian analysts believe that "Iran is not seeking war, and Israel does not dare to respond in a way that would lead to a full-scale war with Iran." Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the "Council on Foreign and Defense Policy," an informal body that advises the Russian government on international policies, wrote in an article published hours after Iran's missile attack on Israel in the state newspaper "Rossiyskaya Gazeta": "The new crisis in the Middle East has new characteristics, the most important of which are Israel's disregard for the opinions of its Western allies, the rise of Iran's power, and America's unwillingness to intervene in this crisis." Following the missile attack, Israelis began assessing the damage on October 4. This analyst believes that "regional countries will focus more on the lack of impact of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel on their own security, and European countries will focus on preventing an increase in the wave of migration from the Middle East." He wrote about Russia: "Russia currently has other priorities for specific reasons, but it will likely propose initiatives for diplomacy. The problem is that no power in this region desires this diplomacy, but they behave in a way to prevent a full-scale war." According to this Russian analyst, "so far, we have seen a lot of skill in this area, but any next step could lead to a precipice." Some "Z reporters," pro-war Russian journalists who will be financially supported by the Kremlin under the new government budget, are focusing on the potential consequences of the Middle East crisis for Russia, believing that a full-scale war would be "troublesome" for Russia, partly because "Iran, which has supported Russia militarily, will likely seek military support from Russia, but military factories in Russia are working at full capacity to meet the needs of the Russian army in Ukraine." Before Iran's missile attack on Israel, reports emerged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had asked Vladimir Putin to request Tehran not to attack Israel. On the other hand, it seems Iran had previously informed Russia of its intention to launch a missile attack on Israel. These reports have not been officially confirmed. Additionally, it has been reported that an official delegation led by Dmitry Chernyshenko, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, which was en route to Qatar, had to return immediately to Russia due to Iran's missile attack. The Russian aviation authority has instructed the country's airlines to suspend all flights to the Middle East, especially to Iran and Israel. In Ukraine, the city of Uman, which houses important Orthodox Jewish shrines, is preparing to host its annual ceremony, with thousands of Jews traveling there despite the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Jewish Association, of the approximately 50,000 people intending to travel to Uman, 15,000 could not reach the city due to Iran's attack on Israel and the cancellation of flights to the city. Ukrainian analysts believe that Russia could benefit from the escalation of the Middle East crisis for at least two reasons: due to the increase in global oil prices and the international focus shifting to this region while reducing attention to Russia's war against Ukraine and international support for Kyiv. Some believe that "in the event of a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, Iran will become the biggest issue for the West, not Russia; moreover, the West will focus on supporting Israel, and Ukraine will be placed at a lower priority."