Realizing the Hopes of Iranians is Likely the Most Difficult Challenge Facing Rouhani

Tehran (Associated Press) - For Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, winning the election was likely the easiest challenge. His decisive victory over a hardline rival indicates that the majority of Iranian voters prefer Rouhani's promises for greater freedoms at home and for expanding and deepening Iran's relations with the international community. His victory is a source of hope for urban reformists and the youth of Iran, who seek to distance themselves from the authoritarian image of their country and hostility towards the West. This was clearly observable in the dancing, cheering, and singing of Rouhani's supporters during his victory celebrations. Ramin Mirzaei, a 21-year-old student from Tehran, says, "I hope we have more freedom and security in the next four years." Farnoush Kazemi, a drafting technician, says, "I hope Rouhani ends the house arrest of reformist leaders. He should cooperate with neighbors and other foreign countries to improve our country's atmosphere. We need more investment." However, fulfilling these demands will not be easy. One of Hassan Rouhani's most difficult challenges will be changing Iran's economic situation. His hardline critics in Parliament and other institutions have severely pressured Rouhani's government over the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, claiming that it gave away many concessions to the West in exchange for few benefits. Since the implementation of this agreement in 2016, Iran's economic situation has improved. However, for many ordinary citizens in Iran, the hardliners' arguments seem reasonable. Although Rouhani's government secured several important concessions in the nuclear deal, including major contracts for purchasing civilian aircraft, Iran's economy remains unstable due to severe government control and interference, the continued decline in global oil prices, and ongoing U.S. sanctions unrelated to the nuclear issue. The unemployment rate is in double digits, and about one-third of the country's young workforce is unemployed. Major international banks, concerned about the continuation of U.S. sanctions, still do not trust transferring currency for Iran, let alone investing or lending to Iranian companies. Shahabuddin Yasemi, the CEO of an active mining company in Iran, says, "Today's conditions are like conditional sanctions relief. If the borders were truly open, foreign investors would dare to come and start work here." During the election campaign, Rouhani broke some taboos with unprecedented attacks on the hardline faction. In one televised debate, he criticized the Revolutionary Guard for testing a ballistic missile inscribed with the phrase "Israel must be wiped out," describing it as an act aimed at undermining the nuclear negotiations. The Revolutionary Guard has become a very powerful security and economic entity over the decades, controlling many sensitive centers and facilities in the country, including airports. At the same time, it leads a network of economic activities that may be harmed by reforms aimed at improving the country's economic situation. The Revolutionary Guard can undermine and embarrass the President through its power and resources, with actions such as missile tests or threats to the U.S. naval fleet in the Persian Gulf. The Revolutionary Guard does not shy away from such actions and recently announced the opening of a new underground ballistic missile facility. Rouhani, undoubtedly aware of the Revolutionary Guard's power, attempted to praise the Guard and the Basij in a press conference following his recent election victory. He stated, "The people said no to reducing the leader of the system, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Basij and the armed forces of the country because they belong to all the people of Iran." He also tried to avoid confrontation with another power center of the hardline faction, the judiciary. Rouhani has no control over the Iranian judiciary, just as he does not over the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij. This powerlessness of the President is particularly evident regarding the arrest and trial of dual nationals, which is one of the factors creating tension in relations with the West. A prominent case was the arrest and trial of Jason Rezaian, a Washington Post reporter, in 2014 by the judiciary, while Mohammad Javad Zarif described Rezaian as a fair journalist and expressed hope for his swift release. Nevertheless, Rezaian was convicted by one of Iran's most hardline judges in a closed court on charges including espionage for the U.S. He was eventually freed in early 2016 during a prisoner swap between Iran and the U.S. The power and influence of the judiciary could make it impossible to fulfill another demand of Rouhani's supporters, which is to lift the house arrest of the Green Movement leaders. Rouhani's supporters have repeatedly chanted in recent gatherings in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi. After his victory, Rouhani stated that he is concerned and sensitive about the fate of detainees. However, he also acknowledged his limitations, stating that the executive, legislative, and judicial branches "must each act within their own authority." Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, who oversees all institutions, is likely to be the most important authority controlling Rouhani's behavior and policies. Khamenei is not inclined towards implementing deep and extensive reforms. Cliff Kupchan, an Iran expert and head of Eurasia, wrote after Rouhani's victory: "Khamenei and the conservatives in his office, who direct the main affairs of the country, are still close to the power holders and the main interests of the country, making deep reforms difficult." Donald Trump's policy of intensifying Iran's isolation may also make reforms in the country difficult and strengthen the hardline faction. It seems that Rouhani is well aware of this threat. In his recent press conference, he spoke of expanding understanding and international contacts "based on mutual respect and common interests," and at times attacked Donald Trump, likely aiming to take the weapon away from the hardliners within the country. He stated, "U.S. leaders must know that whenever we need to conduct a missile test, we will do so. We will not wait for their permission." Regarding the Trump administration, he said, "Before making a definitive statement, we will wait for the Trump administration's thoughts to stabilize."