Reasons for the New Wave of Tension Between Russia and Ukraine

Following Russia's claims about Ukraine's attempts for armed operations in Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, tensions in the relations between the two countries suddenly escalated. AFP recalls that the Ukrainian government has strongly denied Russia's accusations, but the escalation of verbal warfare between the two sides has raised concerns that armed clashes in two eastern regions of Ukraine bordering Russia may once again expand. Details regarding the incident that Russia describes as Ukraine's attempt for military operations in Crimea are still unclear, and mutual accusations between the two countries continue. An analysis of the details of the new wave of tension in Russia-Ukraine relations: Claims from both sides. The Federal Security Service of Russia stated on Wednesday that it had thwarted a "terrorist attack" in the Crimea region that had been carried out a few days earlier by the security section of the Ukrainian armed forces, and that they had defeated their armed attack. This agency added that during the armed clashes to capture the attackers, one of its officers was killed, and in subsequent clashes, one Russian soldier was also killed. Vladimir Putin angrily accused Ukraine of "resorting to terrorism" and promised to punish those responsible for the deaths of Russian personnel. In response, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko denied Russia's claims, describing them as "fantasy and an excuse for future military threats against Ukraine." He simultaneously ordered the Ukrainian armed forces to be put on heightened alert. Russian state television aired footage of explosives and an individual named Yevgeny Panov, who is claimed to be an operative of the Ukrainian armed forces' security section. Moscow claims to have arrested this individual, who allegedly confessed to planning and plotting an attack. However, the Ukrainian government states that Russian forces kidnapped Yevgeny Panov and even claims that drunken Russian soldiers were responsible for the incident. Regardless of the truth of this incident, analysts believe that the way both sides handle this matter reveals important points. What gains can Russia achieve? Vladimir Putin's angry reaction has raised concerns that Russia may exploit this incident to initiate a broader war against Ukraine. The Russian government has always been accused of seeking to seize part of Ukraine's territory to obtain a land corridor between Crimea and Russian territory. However, Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, recently wrote that any action to escalate the war with Ukraine would contradict the recent policies of the Russian government, which aim to reduce tensions with the West regarding the Ukraine crisis and encourage Europe to lift economic sanctions against it. According to this analyst, Russia's goal is to use this incident to gain concessions in future peace talks with Ukraine regarding the eastern regions of that country. Vladimir Putin stated that in light of this incident, the next round of peace negotiations scheduled for next month would be "meaningless" and described Ukraine as an unreliable ally for the West. Alexander Baunov adds in his analysis published on Friday, "Russia will clearly use the Crimea incident to emphasize the irrationality of the Ukrainian government more seriously in discussions with the West." The Federal Security Service of Russia has stated that Ukraine's aim is to destabilize the Crimea region ahead of the upcoming nationwide elections in Russia next month. Some others believe that one of Moscow's goals in emphasizing this issue is to heighten patriotic sentiment within the country and divert public attention from the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia. What gains can Ukraine achieve? The Ukrainian government knows well that it cannot militarily reclaim the Crimea peninsula from Russia. Therefore, any analysis or speculation that describes this incident as part of broader Ukrainian plans to reclaim Crimea is not close to reality. The Russian government has stated that Ukraine's goal may be to disrupt the tourist season in the Crimea region, and Vladimir Putin accused the Ukrainian government of intending to distract its people from their domestic problems with this action. Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian analyst at the Penta Institute in Kyiv, told AFP that escalating tensions with Russia and the possibility of an all-out war with that country would bring no benefit to Ukraine. He added, "For the first time in two years, people in Ukraine are once again talking about the possibility of war." However, Alexander Baunov from the Carnegie Moscow Center says that given that the West has so far focused only on the eastern regions of Ukraine in Donbas regarding the Ukraine crisis, the Ukrainian government may try to make the issue of sovereignty in Crimea a central topic in its relations with Russia. He wrote in part of his analysis: "The Russian government was able to quickly separate the issues of Crimea and the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. The possibility of linking these two issues may be lost forever." In this context, Ukraine has put its forces on heightened alert due to increased tensions with Russia. Putin accused Ukraine of planning a terrorist attack in Crimea.