Recent Polls in Israel: Gantz Leads, but Netanyahu Remains the Likely Next Prime Minister

Two new polls indicate that although the "Blue and White" coalition led by Benny Gantz may gain more seats, the strengthening of the right-wing and religious factions makes it more likely that Benjamin Netanyahu will win the elections and form the next government. If elections were held today, according to a joint poll by Israel Hayom newspaper and i24 network, Gantz's coalition would secure 33 seats, Likud 26 seats, the leftist Meretz party 8 seats, and various other parties would receive fewer of the 120 Knesset seats. This poll suggests that the right-wing and religious bloc, including Likud with 66 seats, compared to 54 seats for Gantz's supporters, reassures Netanyahu that he remains the next prime minister. A separate poll by Channel 12 states that Gantz's coalition would win 31 seats and Likud 28 seats, but this poll also emphasizes that the Blue and White coalition has weakened compared to last month, while the right-wing and religious factions have strengthened. According to Channel 12's poll, Likud and its supporters would hold 64 seats, 4 more than the half needed to form the next government. Two weeks after the Israeli Attorney General's announcement regarding the possibility of an indictment against Netanyahu in three cases involving bribery and breach of trust, Netanyahu has regained strength in public opinion. 40% in Channel 12's poll chose Netanyahu as the most qualified politician to lead the country, while last month, during the first week of Gantz's party formation, he was supported by 34% of respondents, neck and neck with Netanyahu. Recently, Netanyahu achieved another victory; the Attorney General announced that the submission of evidence in the prime minister's criminal cases would be postponed until after the elections, and his legal "hearing" process would take place at least four months after the elections. The delay in releasing case documents and the hearing process allows Netanyahu to focus his time and energy on winning the elections on April 8 and then negotiating with parties to form his fifth government, aiming to have his tenure surpass that of David Ben-Gurion, the founder of Israel. Meanwhile, a day after Israeli media reported that the country's internal security agency informed Benny Gantz, one of the two main candidates in the upcoming elections, that Iranian security agencies had "hacked" his personal phone, Gantz responded on March 15, stating that his phone did not contain any sexual relationship videos. The Khedashot media agency, the main news source for Channel 12, reported on March 14 that five weeks ago, when the former chief of staff of the Israeli army announced his entry into politics by forming a new party and identified himself as Netanyahu's main rival in the April 8 elections, two senior officials from the internal security agency told Gantz that Iran had "hacked" his mobile phone. The report added that Shin Bet officials warned Gantz that if his phone contained any materials that could be exploited against him if he reached a government position, it would be detrimental. Gantz's coalition initially responded briefly, questioning the media's publication of this news. In some social media posts in Israel over the past day, it was claimed that Gantz's phone apparently contained videos of sexual relations. However, according to Haaretz, Gantz stated in his first personal response to this matter that his phone contained ordinary materials and did not have any sexual videos. Gantz emphasized that his phone did not contain any security materials or anything else that could lead to blackmail against him; someone is misleading the nation here; the phone issue is gossip and prying; the real problem is a grave and painful matter; our struggle is for the homeland and for democracy and decisive leadership. General Gantz, who has a wife and four daughters, had previously stated at the beginning of his political campaign, referring to the corruption allegations against Netanyahu, that the government he would form would bring honest people to power. General Gantz, who served as chief of staff from 2011 to 2015 during Netanyahu's government, referred to the recent attack of two long-range rockets from Gaza on Tel Aviv's vicinity, which the Israeli army stated had "surprised" the country. Gantz said, "Israel's deterrent power has diminished in recent days, and those who set the agenda are the Gaza factions (armed Palestinians)." Gantz accused Netanyahu of lacking a consistent policy and being hesitant in his actions. Netanyahu, who is also the defense minister, ordered the army to target a hundred "assassination targets" in Gaza following the rocket attacks on Tel Aviv's vicinity, which did not result in casualties or damage. Iran has not responded to the allegations made by Shin Bet regarding the hacking of General Gantz's phone; Iran's silence on this matter could inadvertently enhance Tehran's cyber authority against Israel.