Reformists and Ebrahim Raisi; From 'Ayatollah Execution' to 'Well-Dressed Cleric'

The welcome of some reformists towards the potential presidency of Ebrahim Raisi over the judiciary of the Islamic Republic has raised voices from the 'Javan' newspaper close to the Revolutionary Guards and Mustafa Tajzadeh, a member of the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization. Ebrahim Raisi will be the first head of the judiciary who has lost in a nationwide election, and his appointment could be seen as a sign of 'stubbornness' from Ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, against Hassan Rouhani and his supporters. However, some reformists have expressed hope for 'positive changes' during his presidency. Some have said he will be the first head of the judiciary with prior experience in this position, while others are hopeful about the new appointments he may make, which could lead to the empowerment of figures like Mostafa Pourmohammadi and the weakening of Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei. Shahab Tabatabai, a relative of Mohammad Khatami and a reformist candidate in the third city council, has praised Ebrahim Raisi, leading to a reaction from the 'Javan' newspaper. In the March 8 issue of 'Shargh', Tabatabai wrote that Raisi has 'the most work experience in the judiciary.' He stated, 'Some analyze Raisi's future approach based on his discourse in the presidential election, while others have a different view and portray a more optimistic image based on his previous responsibilities in the judiciary.' This political activist published part of an interview with Abbas Maroufi, a writer, indicating that Raisi, as Tehran's prosecutor, issued a ruling of incompetence regarding the Revolutionary Court's handling of the 'Gordon' magazine case, which was tried and acquitted in court with the presence of a jury. The 'Javan' newspaper described this article in 'Shargh' as 'entirely praise for Raisi,' even emphasizing the good looks of the young cleric from the 1990s. This newspaper, close to the Revolutionary Guards, also labeled the article as 'suspicious,' questioning, 'Is this the same Raisi you introduced as hardline, violent, and a supporter of executions and torture in the 96 elections?!' However, some reformists believe this article may not be a reformist stance but rather an independent action by a reformist newspaper, similar to an article published by the 'Etemad' newspaper during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's mayoralty praising his activities. The welcoming of reformist figures towards Raisi's presidency has not been limited to 'Shargh.' Hussein Mousavi Tabrizi, Secretary-General of the Society of Researchers and Teachers and former prosecutor of Iran, told 'Ensaaf News' that 'I have not seen anything bad from Mr. Raisi so far. His behavior was mild with the people at that time and he did not have a rough spirit at all.' According to 'Shargh,' Tabrizi and Ali Younesi, Minister of Intelligence in Khatami's government, have predicted that 'the situation of the judiciary during Ebrahim Raisi's presidency will likely improve.' Mohammad Reza Khabaz, a member of the National Trust Party, whose founder has been under house arrest for over eight years, also stated, 'All branches of the country should utilize the valuable presence of Hojjatoleslam Raisi in the new period by assisting the judiciary.' These reactions from figures like Khabaz were perhaps predictable. Meanwhile, Mahmoud Sadeghi, a representative from Tehran, has also welcomed Ebrahim Raisi's presidency and expressed optimism about his appointments in a tweet. However, Sadeghi's tweet has received a lot of negative reactions. On the other hand, none of the reformist figures have reacted against this appointment, perhaps believing that their reactions would have no impact and only incur costs for them. Although some of their supporters believe that this reaction could at least have a small impact in today's stagnant political atmosphere. Some reformists may also believe that by welcoming Ebrahim Raisi's presidency over the judiciary, they can soften him towards reformists. Ahmad Zeidabadi, a journalist and national-religious activist, has analyzed this welcome from a different angle. He wrote, 'Raisi... in the debates (presidential election) did not show himself to be familiar with political tricks like people such as Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and even Hassan Rouhani, and appeared as a straightforward individual. Some people even interpreted his meeting with Amir Tataloo in this context and did not withdraw from voting for him. In fact, the secret of Raisi's 40 percent vote in the elections was largely this, and not as the principlists attribute it to a 40 percent base that is actually not even 10 percent.' He added, 'I believe this issue has unconsciously influenced some figures to consider Raisi more suitable for the presidency of the judiciary than his predecessors. How much this assumption can be true? It is better to wait for his performance in this specific area instead of making predictions.' The optimism expressed by some reformists has prompted a reaction from Mustafa Tajzadeh, a member of the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization, who wrote on his Twitter page: 'Anyone who believes that Hashemi Shahroudi was able to restore the judicial ruins inherited from Mohammad Yazdi and that Sadegh Larijani could also meet the needs of society, should hope that Raisi will modernize and make the judiciary efficient. Iran needs an independent, impartial, and accountable judiciary.' The difference between welcoming Raisi and Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi is that Shahroudi had not been tested in any position in the Islamic Republic before his appointment as head of the judiciary and had no negative or positive history. Therefore, some had hoped for this student of Ayatollah Sadr. On the other hand, Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi was appointed in an atmosphere where, after the arrest and trial of Gholamhossein Karbaschi, the mayor of Tehran, and the suspension of the 'Zan' newspaper, groups such as the Office for Strengthening Unity had been calling for the dismissal of Mohammad Yazdi, the head of the judiciary, every few months, and during the first anniversary ceremony of the second of Khordad, students shouted 'Death to Yazdi' in the presence of Mohammad Khatami. Therefore, some might have seen Shahroudi's appointment as a sign of retreat by Ayatollah Khamenei. Shahroudi's initial remarks about inheriting a 'ruin' provided good propaganda material for reformists for a while. However, this honeymoon period was short-lived, and some reformists raised his Iraqi citizenship in response to events during Shahroudi's presidency, and Hossein Laghmani, a representative from Hamadan, told him, 'You made the ruin more ruined.' During Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi's management, in addition to the Revolutionary Guards' intelligence, the judiciary's protection intelligence also gained more power, and dealing with political activists was carried out through these parallel intelligence agencies, including the arrest of national-religious and Freedom Movement forces. Widespread newspaper suspensions also occurred during his presidency. Sadegh Larijani's presidency over the judiciary, however, took place after the protests of 2009, and reformists were in an atmosphere where, given the large volume of events of those days, this appointment might not change the political equations significantly. Now, however, Ebrahim Raisi's appointment has a different meaning for reformists and political forces. For the first time, political forces within the country are searching for signs about the future leadership in Ayatollah Khamenei's appointments, although some of this sign-seeking may be mere speculation. Therefore, some political forces may interpret Ebrahim Raisi's appointment as a sign of competition between him and Sadegh Larijani for the future leadership position and feel that with his new appointment, he may gain an upper hand in this competition. Some reformists may try to avoid confrontation with him based on this analysis. Successfully navigating this game, however, requires a complex delicacy that reformists have had little success with in the past.