Reformists' Conference and the Chances of Victory in Upcoming Elections

The nationwide conference of the reformist faction of the Islamic Republic of Iran, organized by a group called the "Coordination Council of the Reform Front," made headlines last week. The conference began with a message from Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Council. The final statement of the conference provided a historical definition of the reformist faction and its identity, supporting Hassan Rouhani's government and its moderate approach, emphasizing the necessity of fully implementing the Constitution and recognizing the rights of religious, ethnic minorities, and women. It called on the government and judiciary to address what it termed the "source of corruption" and to maintain respect for the leaders and social assets of reformism, noting that the Constitution and the leader explicitly emphasize the right to critique and public oversight. The statement also expressed surprise that representatives in the parliament could not exercise their legal right to present their views. Prior to this statement, Tehran representative Ali Motahari faced protests and insults from a group of representatives when he mentioned the illegality of the house arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard, leaders of the 2009 protests, leading to a temporary suspension of the parliament session. What political consequences could the holding of this nationwide conference of the reformist faction have? What are the chances of the reformist faction winning in the upcoming elections for the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, and what do they depend on? This is the main question posed to three guests on this week's program. Taghi Rahmani, a political analyst and national-religious activist in Paris, Bijan Hakmat, a member of the Solidarity for Secular Republic and Human Rights, and Mehdi Mahdavi Azad, a political analyst in Bonn, Germany. The political consequences of the "Reformists' Conference" from the perspective of Taghi Rahmani, Bijan Hakmat, and Mehdi Mahdavi Azad were discussed on Radio Farda. Mr. Rahmani, what does the holding of the nationwide reformists' conference indicate about the red lines of the regime and the current weight of this faction after the 2013 elections? The statement of the "Nationwide Reformists' Conference" was essentially a revised or edited version of Hashemi Rafsanjani's message with a couple of additional points, which I believe makes the issue somewhat significant. Taghi Rahmani -- Political activist of the national-religious spectrum (Paris) Taghi Rahmani: There were moderate reformists who could hold a conference, and naturally, they were given red lines under security pressures. However, this conference was a manifestation of the presence of two figures: one was Hashemi Rafsanjani's prominent presence with his message that echoed general slogans close to Mousavi's but remained ambiguous. The other was that all speakers referred to the house arrest and the confrontation with Mr. Motahari. This conference had a moderate reformist appearance, but the spirit of the session was monopolized by two currents: the house arrest and Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani. Meanwhile, the opposing faction, particularly the extreme right, has two red lines leading up to the next elections: one is polarizing Hashemi and Khamenei, and the second is defining the boundaries of the correct confrontation with the sedition. Yet, we see that in this conference, both principles were somehow violated. Especially if you pay attention to Hashemi's message, the conference statement was essentially a revised or edited version of Hashemi's message with a couple of additional points, which I believe makes the issue somewhat significant. Another important issue was that the bureaucratic government did not attempt to engage in this conference, which I believe had a conservative reason on one hand, but perhaps also indicates a distancing between the spirit of reformism within the government and the bureaucrats. Because the bureaucratic government did not even engage in this conference. These were noteworthy points from this conference. Mr. Hakmat, in the statement of the Coordination Council of the Reform Front regarding the nationwide reformists' conference, there is an emphasis on the necessity of maximum public participation, guaranteeing free, lawful, and competitive elections, considering votes as a public trust, and strengthening public trust, with a request for the Ministry of Interior to address concerns in this regard. Does the reformist faction currently have enough weight and influence to achieve some or all of these demands? The approach taken by this conference will certainly not be able to mobilize its social base to advance specific demands. Unfortunately, contrary to Mr. Rahmani's optimism, I believe this conference presented the most conservative and not the most moderate policies. Bijan Hakmat -- From the Solidarity for Secular Republic (Paris) Bijan Hakmat: If you consider the entire group of reformists, which includes the Green Movement, it certainly has such power. However, this conference and the approach it took will certainly not be able to mobilize its social base to advance specific demands. Unfortunately, contrary to Mr. Rahmani's optimism, I believe this conference presented the most conservative and not the most moderate policies. The final resolution of this conference resembles more of a political manifesto. It is very general, and anyone can say it under any circumstances. However, there are no conditions set like those that Mr. Khatami had before the presidential elections. Nowadays, Mr. Motahari or Ahmad Montazeri speak much more clearly and explicitly about the house arrest of Mousavi, Karroubi, and Rahnavard. Regarding the freedom of parties, yes, Mr. Hashemi gave a good message. But this message needed to be detailed and turned into specific political demands. For instance, when parties are mentioned, the final resolution of this conference did not even call for the freedom of reformist parties like Participation or the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution. The lifting of house arrest was not mentioned in the final statement. Therefore, I do not believe that reformists can mobilize a social base for themselves, and in the future, if some of them are rejected by the Guardian Council, they will not be able to gain many votes in the parliament. Because people will ultimately compare. Nowadays, after Mr. Motahari's speech, this discussion is constantly raised: if reformists are to be like today's reformists in the parliament, what good are they, and what impact can they have on the country's political process? Mr. Mahdavi Azad, in Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's message, which both Mr. Rahmani and Mr. Hakmat referred to, there is an emphasis on party organization and a strong structure, the complete implementation of the Constitution, especially its third section, defending reform and moderation, the rights of religious and ethnic minorities and women, condemning violence and terrorism, and the necessity of maintaining respect for the positions of religious and political leaders and the pioneers of the revolution. What is the purpose of these reminders to the reformist faction? The holding of this meeting is, of course, a significant sign of the gradual opening of the political space in the country. When we say gradual opening of the political space, we do not mean a return to 2005 when Mr. Ahmadinejad took power. We mean a return to 1996, before the second Khordad elections. Mehdi Mahdavi Azad -- Political analyst (Bonn, Germany) Mehdi Mahdavi Azad: First, I would like to express my view on the Coordination Council of the Reform Front meeting. The holding of this meeting is, of course, a significant sign of the gradual opening of the political space in the country. When we say gradual opening of the political space, we do not mean a return to 2005 when Mr. Ahmadinejad took power. We mean a return to 1996, before the second Khordad elections. However, this meeting is a process of the transformation of reformists both in terms of parties and content. What I am saying does not mean questioning the current reformists and activists. It signifies a change that the ruling power has imposed, and the reformists have accepted it. Previously, the reforms we knew as the second Khordad front had decision-makers from parties like Participation, Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, Kargozaran, the Assembly of Clerics, and the Office for Consolidation of Unity among students, along with some national-religious forces in the intellectual sphere. Now, the national-religious forces have been completely sidelined. Participation and Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution have been officially dissolved by the authoritarian forces. The Assembly of Clerics has become ineffective after the split caused by Mr. Karroubi forming the National Trust Party, and with Mr. Khatami's travel ban, it has almost no influence. The Office for Consolidation of Unity has been practically destroyed by security conservatives, and nothing remains of it, and the Kargozaran Party has no desire to continue the previous trend. Here we see that what is known as Mr. Hadi Khamenei's organization, the Assembly of Imam Line Forces, takes the lead and effectively transforms itself into the main active force in this arena under the name of the Reform Front. Therefore, both in terms of parties, where the main parties have been completely eliminated, and in terms of content, the slogans have changed. The slogans are not only not the radical and serious slogans of 1997 to 1999, but they are not even the moderate slogans that Mr. Rouhani presented during the elections. They are not even the slogans of Mousavi and Karroubi. This change is the result of the unintended convergence of four main factions in the country: first, the hardline security military conservatives of the regime, who fully agree with this transformation because they have serious problems with the original and principled generation and want them eliminated. Mr. Rouhani's government also agrees with this because it can present this conference as a sign of its success in opening the political space. Progressive reformists also agree to some extent, although they hold this conference in silence, as they may see such activities as a window for improving conditions. The sidelined and conservative reformists strongly defend it because they gain an opportunity to emerge and enter the core of real politics and reformism. From this perspective, what was announced in the final statement of the meeting and even in Mr. Hashemi's message and Mr. Khatami's message is significantly lower than the demands that the Reform Front and its popular base have. I believe that alongside this transformation, there is an effort to change the phase and look towards the parliamentary elections, hoping for some relief after next year's elections. Mr. Rahmani, Mr. Hakmat said he is not as optimistic as you regarding this gathering of the reformist faction or at least part of it. What is your opinion and response to his assessment? The discussion is not about optimism. It is about our position. With my understanding of the reformists who are not present today, they were also generalists. However, confronting the demands of the social base accelerated the process. Taghi Rahmani: You see, the discussion is not about optimism. It is about our position. With my understanding of the reformists who are not present today, they were also generalists. However, confronting the demands of the social base accelerated the process. Perhaps, in my opinion, Participation and Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution were very radical in general, but when it came to their interests and positions, they were extremely conservative. This is the record of these parties, and we had a close relationship with these individuals, both in prison and outside. But my point is that society has demands. Elections are a platform. Reformism is also a process. When they enter this game, you will see in the parliamentary elections. The same slogans must be repeated. The issue is management. In my opinion, civil society in Iran was somewhat gelatinous in 1996, which also caused a split at the top of the ruling power during the fifth parliamentary elections. A government that does not allow different parties to form will lead to various conflicts through independent forces, and there are interests involved. If you look at the issue this way, we need to get the rusty and slow cart back on track. When it gets on the rails, then the slogans will change, and a vitality will return to society, where people will look at these slogans. Mr. Mousavi's insistence on the uncompromising implementation of the Constitution is also significant. Mr. Mousavi says he is not an overthrowist. However, Mr. Mousavi has changed significantly before and after the Green Movement, although not fundamentally. But he has made a significant difference. I look at social transformations both as a political analyst and as a political activist. If this issue connects to another issue, where will it lead? For example, elections are a platform for society to enter, and the demands of the people will create representatives. Media will become more hopeful. Media will gain more courage, and the water in this pot will heat up again. The right and the extreme right and the leader's office have turned down the flame of this pot or lowered it significantly. Who can gradually heat this pot? And when the pot heats up, many issues will change. I can say from personal experience that many reformists, including Mr. Khatami, reached a series of viewpoints during this time. It was not like this. People are very democratic in philosophical discussions. We must see how much they are willing to pay for democracy in social action. We must also pay attention to this point. Therefore, the social and popular audience that gets excited and the opportunities that arise for expressing truths and secrets of achievements afterward make us realistic rather than optimistic about how far this conference can go in this path. In the conference, the names of Mousavi and Karroubi are constantly mentioned, and if they are freed and become civil political figures in confrontation with the ruling power, many things will change.