"Regime Prone to Collapse" Working on Progress Vision Document

The call by Ali Khamenei on October 14 for the formulation of an "Islamic-Iranian Model of Progress" by the year 1444 in the Iranian calendar comes at a time when, according to the assessment of the "Fund for Peace" research institute, the status of the Islamic Republic of Iran is listed among the "failed states" and is categorized in the "orange to red" range on the Fragile States Index. The forecast for its position next year is expected to be more critical than this year: closer to an "irreversible" state and doomed to collapse. The list of fragile and at-risk countries not only reflects the pressures that the people endure but also indicates the position and proximity of countries to the state of collapse. In the latest assessment by the Fund for Peace, Iran is ranked approximately 34 in the orange group, close to the red line countries. The red group consists of countries in a critical state and on the brink of collapse, while the orange group includes countries in a dangerous situation. The studies and assessments of the Fund for Peace are conducted in four separate sections: public cohesion and stability, economic charts, political charts, and social charts. In the public stability and cohesion section, factors such as the role of security institutions, class deprivation, and the superior position of elites and rent-seekers in society are examined. In the economic section, the decline of the national economy, the expansion of poverty, income imbalance, uneven development, and brain drain are among the factors considered. In the political group, the legitimacy of the ruling regime and its reliance on the votes and support of the people, the state of public services in the country, the status of political freedoms, the extent of human rights compliance, and the rule of law are scrutinized. In the social section, the demographic composition and the position of ethnic groups, the status of refugees, and the impact of external factors, in addition to dozens of other factors, are taken into account in compiling the lists and preparing the charts. In this year's assessment by the Fund for Peace, Iran ranks among the 50 countries most prone to collapse in the world, following Cambodia and preceding Papua New Guinea. Considering the assessments by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which predict a further economic decline for Iran next year, its outlook among the collapsing countries will undoubtedly become darker. The criteria for determining the economic ranking of a country in the annual list of failures include the trend of economic decline and the overall collapse of society, per capita income reduction, gross national product decline, rising unemployment, inflation growth, production status, and poverty line conditions. A decrease in foreign investors' interest in investing in the target country, reduced investment profitability, the collapse of the national currency value, increased class inequalities, the trade of smuggled goods, drug trafficking, capital flight, the level of administrative corruption growth, money laundering, bribery, and nepotism are among other factors considered in determining the ranking of failed regimes and the collapse of countries. In conducting assessments, in addition to expert opinions, the views of local people regarding their country's economic situation and future outlook are also taken into account. Until 2012, fifteen countries: Somalia, Burundi, Yemen, Uganda, Afghanistan, Malawi, Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Niger, Pakistan, Chad, Haiti, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh were on the red list of collapsing countries. From 2012 to 2018, South Sudan, Syria, Zimbabwe, and Iraq moved into the top 15 collapsing countries, pushing other countries back. Despite having the largest total reserves of oil and natural gas in the world, being among the top 10 countries holding 10 valuable underground materials, including iron ore and copper, and having a young and educated population with a consumer market of 85 million, Iran is very close to the front line of collapsing countries. Without a structural transformation in the political foundations and macro management of the country, it could find itself among the top 10 collapsing countries in the world within just a few years. The term "failed regime" defines a disintegrated political structure where the government has failed to fulfill basic commitments and responsibilities, losing control over the affairs, while its legitimacy and capabilities are challenged by smaller governments within the state and the people. Currently, two poor countries, Nicaragua and Bolivia, are ranked significantly better and higher than Iran in the Fund for Peace index, and the negative ranking and distance of Iran from war-torn and impoverished Afghanistan is not very large. The vulnerability index of countries and the software produced based on conducted studies are used by economic institutions, investors, and foreign countries to assess the political-economic risks of investing in a country, receiving early warnings to leave or stay in that country. External factors in turn influence the improvement or exacerbation of the situation in crisis-ridden countries. For instance, between 2005 and 2009, despite Iran's political freedoms and human rights status being in the red and unfree region of the world, the free sale of oil and ease of foreign exchanges improved Iran's general ranking on the fragility list. One of the factors exacerbating Iran's chronic economic crisis this year and predicting a more critical situation next year is the return of American sanctions, which will officially take effect on November 4. Despite being aware of the intensifying crisis, the government is either unable or unwilling to make decisions to neutralize external pressures. Unfortunately, from the perspective of the residents of countries under the tutelage of failed regimes, if the current political situation continues, the nation will also weaken in line with the government due to the continuous reduction in living standards, and the risk of collapse will threaten not only the government but also their existence, cohesion, and stability. The call by the leader of the Islamic Republic to formulate a plan to position Iran among the seven powerful countries in the world over the next 50 years, in addition to implying a semblance of long-term permanence for the regime and denying the chronic and 40-year crisis that has led to a continuous decline in the people's living standards over the past four decades, is a bitter warning about a new ploy to tie the fate of the government to the integrity of the country and the cohesion of the people.