Relative Stability of Food Prices in Shahrivar

An examination of the statistics released on the inflation rate for Shahrivar 1394 (September 2015) in reports from the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank of Iran indicates a continued trend of relative decrease in the growth rate of this index. Among the main commodity and service groups in these statistical reports, the analysis of food inflation holds particular significance due to households' daily use of food and beverages and the relatively high share of food and beverage expenses in the total household expenditure basket. Furthermore, the public's perception of inflation rate changes is generally derived from price fluctuations in this group of goods. The report from the Statistical Center of Iran on changes in the price index of goods and services consumed by urban households in Iran in the last month of summer this year states that the index for the major group 'food, beverages, and tobacco' experienced a growth of 9.4% compared to Shahrivar 1393 (September 2014). The percentage change in the price index for this group in the twelve months leading up to Shahrivar 1394 compared to the same period the previous year, which is referred to as the average inflation for this group of goods, was 10.8%, showing no change compared to the average inflation of Mordad 1394 (August 2015). In the report from the Statistical Center of Iran, the price index for the group 'food and beverages', which excludes price changes in the tobacco group, increased by 9.5% in Shahrivar 1394 compared to the same month last year, which is interpreted as point-to-point inflation for this group. However, the monthly growth rate of the price index for this group is negative by 0.2%. The average inflation rate for the food and beverage commodity group in the report from the Statistical Center of Iran for the changes in the inflation index in the last month of summer this year was recorded at 12.3%. The Central Bank's report on changes in the price index of goods and services in Shahrivar 1394 also shows that in the month reported, the price index for the main group 'food and beverages' recorded a growth of 10% compared to Shahrivar 1393. The monthly inflation rate for this group's price index in the Central Bank's report is negative by 0.2%, which aligns with the Statistical Center of Iran's report on changes in this group's price index in Shahrivar 1394. However, what changes were recorded in the monthly price changes of 10 selected items in the Radio Farda selected basket in Shahrivar this year? This commodity basket, which focuses on the changes in 10 commonly used items by Iranian households, has shown relative stability or slight decreases in recent months, similar to changes in the general price level. A comparison of the price changes of these selected items in Shahrivar this year compared to the previous month indicates that, on average, the price of this basket increased by 0.3 percentage points, which can be referred to as relative stability and price stabilization. The highest price increase among the items listed in the Radio Farda selected basket pertains to chicken meat, which experienced an increase of over 7% (7.63%) from Mordad to Shahrivar this year. As can be seen in Table 1, the highest price decrease was recorded for tomatoes, which saw a decrease of about 10% (9.86%). Details of price changes for other items in this basket during the period from Mordad to Shahrivar 1394 can be found in Table 1. Changing the basis for comparing price changes of this 10-item basket to Shahrivar last year yields similar results. Overall, the average price of this basket in Shahrivar this year compared to the same month last year saw a price increase of 1.3 percentage points, which may indicate stabilization and price stability for these ten items during these two time periods. The highest price increase among these items in Shahrivar this year compared to the same month last year was attributed to tomatoes, which increased by more than 28% (28.4%) during these two time periods. The highest price decrease during these two time periods among the components of the Radio Farda selected basket was recorded for potatoes, which saw a price decrease of over 16% (negative 16.47%) from Shahrivar last year to Shahrivar 1394. Details of price changes for the components of the Radio Farda selected basket in the two time periods of Shahrivar 1393 and Shahrivar 1394 can be tracked in Table 2. However, with the end of Shahrivar 1394, changes and developments in the prices of these 10 items can be reviewed in two periods of summer 1393 and 1394, and the file of these changes can be archived in the second month of this year. The highest increase among these 10 items during these two periods was attributed to first-grade domestic rice, which experienced a price increase of about 11% (10.76%) from summer 1393 to summer 1394. In contrast, potatoes, with a price decrease of 26%, were the record holders for price reduction among these 10 food items during the two periods of summer this year compared to the same season last year. A comparison of price changes for the items present in the Radio Farda selected basket in the two periods of summer this year and the same season last year shows that, ultimately, the average price of this commodity basket decreased by more than two percent (negative 2.1%) during these two time periods. Given the decrease in the producer price index in Shahrivar this year, one can hope that price reductions or at least price stabilization will continue in the coming months, although the main concern in today's Iranian economy, namely recession, will continue to cast a shadow over the Iranian economic landscape.