Report from 16 U.S. Intelligence Agencies on Iran's Behavior Outlook in 2019

A recent assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies, published on Tuesday, February 9, indicates that Iran is "currently not pursuing key activities related to the development of nuclear weapons," but still considers Iran's missile program a threat to the Middle East in 2019. Dan Coats, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, stated in a Senate Intelligence Committee meeting that Iran continues to support terrorism in Europe and the Middle East and backs Houthi militants in Yemen and Shiites in Iraq. He also mentioned that he believes Iranian hardliners will continue to confront moderates within the country. The report, prepared by 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, is based on Iran's performance in 2018 and a forecast of the future behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Gina Haspel, the CIA Director, and several other officials from the 16 security and intelligence agencies accompanied Mr. Coats during the report's presentation. Coats referred to the assessment that Iran is "currently not pursuing key activities necessary for building a nuclear bomb." However, he emphasized that Iranian officials have "openly threatened" that if Tehran does not benefit from the JCPOA, they may not fulfill some commitments of the agreement and may resume those nuclear activities that are restricted under the JCPOA. Iran and six world powers reached a comprehensive agreement in July 2015 to resolve Tehran's nuclear program, under which Iran agreed to suspend many of its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions against it. The Trump administration withdrew from this agreement on May 8 of this year and reinstated the lifted sanctions. Nevertheless, the three European countries, Britain, France, and Germany, along with Russia and China, have stated that as long as Iran adheres to the JCPOA, they will also try to keep trade with Iran open. Dan Coats noted that Iran's adherence to the JCPOA has increased the time required to produce materials needed to build a nuclear weapon from several months to about a year. Gina Haspel also stated that despite the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran has adhered to its commitments under it. She said, "From a technical standpoint, they [Iran] have been compliant with the JCPOA." Haspel added, "I think most recent reports indicate that the Iranians intend to take steps that reflect less compliance with the JCPOA to use it as leverage against Europe to benefit from the investment and trade that Iran hopes to gain from this agreement." The CIA Director stated, "They have laid some groundwork to have the option if they decide to go in that direction." Haspel pointed out, "But we are witnessing this discussion among them [officials] that they have failed to benefit from the economic advantages of the JCPOA." Continuing Iranian Missile Threat U.S. intelligence agencies in their assessment of the threat from Tehran stated that Iran's ballistic missile programs, which have the largest stockpiles in the region, remain a threat to countries across the Middle East in 2019. Dan Coats added that Tehran possesses the "largest ballistic missile force" in the Middle East and is capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometers from Iran's borders. The U.S. cited Iran's missile activities as one of the reasons for its withdrawal from the JCPOA, and European officials, including French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, have warned Tehran that if talks regarding Iran's ballistic missile program are unsuccessful, Paris is prepared to impose new sanctions on Tehran. The UN Security Council, under Resolution 2231, has called on Iran to refrain from developing ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. However, Iran has rejected the request for talks regarding its missile program, stating that these missiles are not capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Domestic hardliners in the regime [Islamic Republic] will become bolder to challenge their moderate rivals by undermining their internal reform efforts and will pursue a more confrontational stance towards the United States and its allies. The report from U.S. intelligence agencies also states that Tehran does not intend to increase the range of its missiles. Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic of Iran has "no scientific or operational constraints" on increasing the range of its missiles, but "simply based on its defensive doctrine, it has no intention to enhance the range" of its missiles. Continuing Political Factional Conflicts in Iran Another part of the U.S. intelligence agencies' report focuses on the conflicts among political factions within the Iranian government, which, according to this report, will continue in 2019. The report states: "Domestic hardliners in the regime [Islamic Republic] will become bolder to challenge their moderate rivals by undermining their internal reform efforts and will pursue a more confrontational stance towards the United States and its allies." U.S. intelligence agencies add: "Hassan Rouhani's ability to implement economic reforms will remain limited, and with deep corruption, a weak banking sector, and a business environment, foreign investment and trade will remain elusive." The assessment emphasizes that with military modernization, Iran will continue to develop its military capabilities that threaten U.S. forces and its allies in the region. This situation may also increase harassment of U.S. and allied military and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. "Iran and Israel will not engage in conflict in Syria" The report regarding Iran's regional activities states that the Islamic Republic will continue to seek to stabilize its military presence in Syria but at the same time will avoid entering into a major military conflict with Israel. The report indicates that Iran's desire to have permanent military bases in Syria and through economic agreements in Syria remains unchanged. The report also raises the possibility that despite numerous Israeli attacks on Iranian-affiliated targets in Syria, Tehran may wish to maintain its network of allied Shiite fighters in Syria. The report from U.S. intelligence agencies refers to Israeli attacks on "30 Iranian targets" in Syria, which apparently relates to attacks in 2018. Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, and General Gadi Eisenkot, who was the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army until two weeks ago, recently stated that their country has conducted "hundreds" and "thousands" of attacks on Iranian targets in Syria. An Israeli military spokesperson said last week that their country is at war with the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria. However, the assessment from U.S. intelligence agencies indicates that Iran will refrain from entering into a major military conflict with Israel in Syria. This assessment also adds that Israeli attacks, which have increased Iranian casualties, make a "conventional" Iranian response more likely, considering its behavior in the May 2018 attack on Israel. Iranian Activities in Yemen The assessment of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's activities related to Yemen throughout 2018 also indicates that Tehran's support for the Houthis, including the provision of ballistic missiles, has continued. Based on this assessment, Iran's behavior towards Yemen has exacerbated the risks arising from the intensification of the war in Yemen and has turned it into a serious threat to U.S. partners and its interests in the region. Saudi Arabia, leading the coalition forces, is America's most important ally in the four-year war in Yemen. The assessment from U.S. intelligence agencies emphasizes that Iran's support has enabled the Houthis to attack Bab al-Mandab and targets deep within Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; some of these attacks have been carried out with missiles and others with drones. Since the beginning of the Yemeni civil war, Iran has been accused of providing military assistance to the Yemenis, and the latest detailed report from the United Nations, spanning over 80 pages, emphasized that Iran has financially supported the Houthis by smuggling fuel. Criticism of Iran's Satellite Launch Vehicle Program The report from U.S. intelligence agencies also addresses Iran's long-range missile program, stating that Iran continues to work on its satellite launch vehicles, including the "Simorgh" rocket. This assessment indicates that Iran's focus on enhancing its satellite launch vehicles will allow it to access intercontinental missiles in the near future, as the technologies for both types of missiles are similar. Iran's recent attempt to launch the "Payam" satellite with the "Simorgh" rocket was unsuccessful, but the head of Iran's Space Organization has emphasized that this testing will continue with the "Safir" and "Simorgh" satellite launch vehicles in the near future. The assessment from the U.S. National Intelligence Agency also determines that Iran did not comply with its obligations under the global treaty to refrain from the proliferation of chemical weapons in 2018, and therefore, the U.S. remains "concerned" about Iran's plans to acquire offensive capabilities, and Tehran did not disclose all its conventional weapon programs when it became a member of the Chemical Weapons Convention. While Iran claims to be the "largest victim of terrorism," the latest report from the U.S. National Intelligence Agency provides the assessment that Iran will "certainly continue to expand and maintain its terrorist capabilities as a deterrent or retaliatory option against its enemies."