Report on the Sixth Conference of the Iranian Republican Alliance

From December 7 to 9, the sixth conference of the Iranian Republican Alliance was held in Berlin. This political organization was established in 2003 based on a charter that was endorsed by over a thousand individuals, and its first conference was also held in Berlin. The Iranian Republican Alliance pursues a republican and democratic transformation in Iran through peaceful means according to its initial charter. The first day of the recent conference was dedicated to a political roundtable focusing on analyzing the political situation in Iran. Several republican political activists and analysts discussed issues such as the extension of nuclear negotiations, continued economic sanctions, regional crises, the issue of ISIS, the upcoming parliamentary elections, and the position of the republican opposition. Participants in this roundtable included: Goudarz Eghtedari, Mehran Barati, Behrouz Bayat, Taghi Rahmani, Hossein Alavi, Maliheh Mohammadi, and Ali Akbar Mousavi Khoeini. Regarding the outlook of the nuclear negotiations, Behrouz Bayat, a nuclear issues expert, stated that "this is naturally not in favor of the Iranian people because sanctions will continue, which has adverse effects on the economy and the lives of the Iranian people. However, the fact that negotiations have not been cut off and have not failed leaves some hope. I believe that the differences between the two sides on technical issues are intertwined with political issues. As agreed, in this seven-month period, the first four months will focus on political issues to establish the political framework of the agreement, and in the next three months, they will address technical details. The hope is that after seven months, they will reach a conclusion because both the Obama administration and Rouhani's government are determined to reach an agreement. Of course, there are internal oppositions on both sides, and given the changes in the U.S. Congress, the situation will not become easier, but there is hope for an agreement." Continuing the political discussion in this roundtable, Goudarz Eghtedari, a political activist, spoke about the impact of the U.S. midterm elections on Iran's nuclear negotiations, saying: "These elections have created changes in the power mechanism in this country that affect the policies of Mr. Obama's administration. We have witnessed the impact of this issue in the past week or two, for example, the nuclear negotiations with Iran have reached a kind of 'soft deadlock.' Another issue is the resignation of Chuck Hagel, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, who strongly resisted military influence in the Middle East, and the pressure from Congress and Senator McCain reached a point where Mr. Obama had to ask Chuck Hagel to resign. This indicates that we may witness changes in the two years remaining of Mr. Obama's presidency. However, I believe that in the composition of the U.S. Senate, which is the main influencer in foreign relations and defense issues, the shift of power between Democrats and Republicans is not significant enough to cancel Mr. Obama's wishes, and he still has the opportunity to advance some policies he desires, even if he does not fully control the Senate." Hossein Alavi, a journalist and political analyst, commented on the impact of the nuclear negotiations on politics in Iran, stating: "The importance of the negotiations with the West, especially the U.S., is not less than achieving the nuclear agreement itself. Because if these negotiations turn into a continuous process of political interaction between Iran and the West, it could help Iran exit isolation, normalize relations with the U.S., and join the global community. Of course, the extension of the negotiation deadline was predictable due to the large volume of remaining political and technical issues and the psychological barriers within the Iranian government that view acceptance of trust-building conditions with the West as a failure for its ambitious and costly nuclear program. However, if the Islamic Republic can overcome this psychological barrier and reconcile with its past mistakes, achieving a comprehensive nuclear agreement and lifting sanctions could lead to economic growth and provide a new order for political competition and internal interaction among all factions of the government, which in turn will positively affect the opening of the political space in the country. Because the experience of the third wave of democracy in the world, which encompasses about two-thirds of democracies and includes Iran, shows that regulated and lasting competition among trends within a non-democratic government can be the beginning of opening political space and democratic transformations in the country." Regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections and the role of civil society, Ali Akbar Mousavi Khoeini, a former parliament representative and political activist, stated: "I believe that the previous presidential election was primarily the result of the Green Movement, meaning the result of the imprisonments and the struggles that people endured is reflected here. That is, we witnessed a reconsideration at various levels of the country, especially among the leadership and their approach and perspective towards the elections at least in that election. Following that, the activities that Mr. Rouhani and the reformists are continuing will, in my opinion, lead to results in both international and domestic arenas, and we will see this in the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will likely show a broader coalition that this time, in addition to reformists and moderates, will include moderate conservatives, and the composition of this parliament will likely resemble the fifth parliament, which I think will be a significant advancement." In the political roundtable discussion and the position of the opposition, Taghi Rahmani, a national-religious activist, discussed the role of civil society in political transformations in Iran, stating: "In today's societies, governments have become very complex, and there is no longer that ideal government that can single-handedly save society. Even parties cannot play this role due to issues like our society. However, if civil society engages consciously, because it cares about its fate, considering that the society and regional conditions are very complex, civil society must act in the struggle within the framework of the Iranian government between the military and bureaucrats, without thinking that this established government is a savior, to ensure that the military retreats to its rightful place and bureaucrats gain space for democrats to become actors. In my opinion, if Iranian civil society appropriately engages with the upcoming elections in the next two years and remains alive and present and takes a more active stance, like the reaction to acid attacks and even participation in the funeral of Pashayi, which shows that Iranian society sometimes has timely presence, if these presences increase, we can be hopeful for the future of Iran. Because the reality is that we are in a very bad regional situation, and society will not reach anywhere in the struggle between the military and bureaucrats without the support of civil society, and the military will have the upper hand, leading Iranian society towards an undesirable fate." Regarding the role of the opposition in future transformations, Mehran Barati, a political analyst, stated about the impact of the opposition abroad on events in Iran: "The opposition will play a role in the transformations in Iran when it has a physical presence and its message reaches the people, and the people react to the opposition's views, for example, through voting or participating in demonstrations and gatherings. Currently, none of these are possible, and the only existing opposition is the opposition within the system, which are the reformists. They at least manage to voice their opinions to the world and society. However, the opposition abroad currently uses unauthorized information channels, namely Persian-language media outside the country, but has no presence in Iran, and the people currently do not show a willingness to see any opposition as their reference and address, and this will not be possible until sufficient instability occurs within the pillars of the Islamic Republic, and non-Islamic opposition will have no chance." Maliheh Mohammadi, a political analyst, discussed how the relationship between the opposition abroad and reformists should be established, stating: "The opposition abroad must be able to create a communication space in which the opposition inside is not forced to pay exorbitant costs due to proximity and communication with it. The inside opposition is working to have the upcoming parliamentary elections predominantly in their favor. Therefore, they are forced to fight within the framework of the existing Iranian constitution, even to criticize the constitution itself. It is important that our struggle does not negate their struggle. If our struggle is much more radical than the internal struggle, they will inevitably have to sever their connection with us to avoid paying costs. It is very important that we can complement them and support their actions abroad and cover the platforms that are still costly and impossible to open inside. However, we must note that we cannot defend them and assume that they cannot say certain things while presenting ideas that are much more radical than theirs, which would inevitably distance them from us. We should not assume that they want to say something but cannot; the issue is the type of path they have chosen, which I believe is absolutely the discourse of reformism in the context of more radical movements like the Green Movement or moderation appropriate to the time, but always within the framework of reforms."