Reports from Two American Media Outlets on the Assessment and Likelihood of an Israeli Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facilities

The Wall Street Journal, citing American officials, reported that U.S. intelligence agencies concluded in the final days of Joe Biden's administration that Israel is assessing the possibility of launching severe attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities this year, given Iran's weaknesses. This report, published on Wednesday, February 24, highlights the risks of high-stakes military actions in the Middle East following strikes on Iran last year. The Washington Post also reported on Thursday, February 25, that Israel is likely to attempt a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear program in the coming months; an attack that could delay Tehran's program for weeks or perhaps months, but "according to U.S. intelligence assessments, it would escalate tensions throughout the Middle East and raise the likelihood of a broader regional conflict again." The Wall Street Journal, citing two informed sources, stated that U.S. intelligence analysis indicated that Israel would seek support from the Trump administration for attacks on Iran, believing that he is more likely to join these attacks compared to Joe Biden, the previous U.S. president. According to one U.S. government official, the U.S. intelligence community had prepared a second report in the early days of Donald Trump's presidency, stating that Israel was assessing an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and was concerned that time to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program was running out. U.S. military officials say that given the complexity of Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel would likely need military and logistical support from the United States for an attack. Israeli officials have repeatedly stated in recent months that the opportunity for military action against Iran is ripe. Israel Katz, Israel's defense minister, was among those officials who said last November, "Iran's nuclear facilities are more vulnerable to attack than ever... We now have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal, which is to neutralize and eliminate existential threats against Israel." Iran has repeatedly threatened that if its nuclear facilities are attacked, it will retaliate, but the Wall Street Journal writes that Tehran is now significantly weakened due to Israeli strikes on its military sites and the setbacks suffered by its proxy forces, including Hezbollah and Hamas. Meanwhile, Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president, said on Thursday that if Iran's nuclear facilities are attacked, the Islamic Republic will rebuild them again. These remarks came after the aforementioned reports in American media about the likelihood of an Israeli attack on key Iranian nuclear sites. Masoud Pezeshkian also ordered the installation of equipment for the second unit of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. The Washington Post reported that Israel would target the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in a potential attack in the first half of 2025. The newspaper described two potential attack options, both involving U.S. assistance, both through aerial refueling and through intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance in operations. The Washington Post added that the Israeli Air Force is preparing to use the possibility of launching ballistic missiles from air to ground without its aircraft entering Iranian airspace. Brian Hughes, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, in response to the Washington Post report, said that President Trump would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Mr. Hughes added that while President Trump prefers to negotiate peacefully with the Iranian government, he will not wait forever. Donald Trump recently stated that his preference is to reach an agreement with Iran rather than "bomb it heavily." The U.S. president rejected reports regarding U.S.-Israeli joint military planning for an attack on Iran last week. He emphasized that instead of military action, he seeks to achieve a new nuclear agreement with Tehran and that work on this agreement should begin immediately. However, Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, described negotiations with the Trump administration on January 19 as neither "wise," nor "intelligent," nor "honorable," and subsequently, other Iranian officials also spoke against negotiations with the United States. Israel has carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran twice this solar year, and Israeli officials and military experts have stated that the second attack caused devastating damage to Iran's air defense; Iranian officials deny this. Trump: Iran is scared and willing to negotiate, I prefer to reach an agreement instead of attacking.