Reports: Israel Breaks the 'Backbone' of Iran's Missile Industry

The Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post reported on the Israeli Air Force's attacks on dozens of locations used for producing solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, significantly reducing the Islamic Republic's ability to replenish its missile arsenal. According to the news site 'Walla', the Islamic Republic was unable to produce some of the equipment destroyed in the Israeli attack on its own and had imported them from China. This Israeli news outlet, citing three Israeli sources, added that the attacked targets were a key part of the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile program. David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Dekel Olet, a researcher at the American think tank CNA, told Reuters that the facilities used for mixing solid fuel for missiles at the military site in Parchin were targeted in the Israeli attack. Olet stated that Israel also targeted a missile production site in Khajir, near Tehran. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic announced that Israeli fighter jets attacked border radar systems in Ilam and Khuzestan provinces, as well as around Tehran, using 'very light' warheads. Albright, in a post on social media, referenced commercial satellite images indicating that Israel targeted a building in Parchin known as 'Taleqan 2', which was used for experimental activities during the now-defunct nuclear weapons development program known as 'Amad'. He cited documents stolen by Israel in 2018, stating that the Islamic Republic had kept important experimental equipment in 'Taleqan 2'. Albright added that even if the Islamic Republic had removed key materials from this building before the Israeli airstrike, the intrinsic value of the building for future nuclear weapons-related activities should not be overlooked. He further noted that satellite images from Parchin show that Israel damaged three other buildings located 320 meters from 'Taleqan 2'. In two of these three buildings, solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed. In this context, Dekel Olet mentioned that satellite images from Planet Labs PBC indicate the destruction of three buildings used for mixing missile solid fuel and a warehouse in Parchin. Images from Planet Labs PBC of the Khajir military site also show that two buildings used for mixing missile solid fuel in this complex were destroyed due to the Israeli attack. Reuters, referencing satellite images, pointed to the earthworks around these buildings, adding that the purpose of these earthworks was to prevent chain explosions in all buildings in case of an explosion of flammable materials in one of them. According to Olet, producing industrial mixers is difficult, and their export and import are under strict control. He added that the Iranian government has imported them over the years at great expense and faces challenges in replacing them. Olet continued that with its limited operation early Saturday, Israel was able to deliver a significant blow to the Islamic Republic's ability to mass-produce missiles, making potential future missile attacks by the Iranian government to penetrate Israeli missile defense more difficult. Axios news site also reported, citing three anonymous Israeli sources, that Israel destroyed 12 mixers necessary for producing solid fuel used in long-range ballistic missiles, which has severely reduced the Islamic Republic's ability to replenish its missile stockpiles and may deter the government from launching extensive missile attacks against Israel. Israeli sources added that four S-300 air defense systems, which were strategically located to protect Tehran's nuclear and energy facilities, were targeted in the Israeli attack. They stated that a drone production factory and a facility in the Parchin military complex were also attacked by Israel. In this context, the newspaper 'Ilaaf' reported that Israel destroyed a secret ballistic missile production factory and numerous heavy fuel mixers needed to power the 'Khaybar' and 'Haj Qasim' missiles in its early Saturday attacks. These two missiles were used in the recent Iranian missile attack on Israel. According to Ilaaf's report, a ballistic missile production factory that was the 'backbone of Iran's missile industry' was destroyed as a result of the Israeli attacks. The report adds that about 20 mixers, each worth at least two million dollars, were destroyed during these attacks. While 'Walla' reported that it would take at least a year to restore this equipment, informed sources from the Islamic Republic's missile industry told 'Ilaaf' that reactivating the factory would require at least two years. In this context, officials from the Islamic Republic and Israel told the New York Times that air defenses stationed at the Imam Khomeini Port petrochemical complex in Khuzestan province and the Abadan oil refinery were targeted in the attack. Hamid Hosseini, an oil and gas industry expert in Iran and a member of the Iranian and Iraqi Chamber of Commerce, told the New York Times that the Israeli attacks contained a 'clear message' to the Islamic Republic. According to him, given the serious economic repercussions for Iran and the Islamic Republic's realization of these risks, Tehran must now act 'wisely' and avoid further tensions. According to the Jerusalem Post, more than 100 Israeli aircraft participated in the early Saturday attacks with the mission of striking the most advanced air defense systems of the Islamic Republic and ensuring air superiority for any potential future operations, including the possibility of low-altitude attacks over Tehran. An estimate of the total damages from the early Saturday attacks by Israel against the military positions of the Islamic Republic is not yet available.