Reports of Iran's 'Decision' to Directly Attack Israel; Gallant's Warning to Tehran

Axios reporter Barak David has reported, citing two informed sources, that according to the latest assessments of Israeli intelligence agencies, Iran has decided to directly attack Israel. Two informed officials stated on Sunday, August 12, that the Israeli intelligence community believes Iran's attack on this country in retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the former head of the political bureau of the extremist group Hamas, in Tehran is likely to occur in the coming days. Hamas is recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union. The report adds that Iran's retaliatory attack may even happen before August 15 (this Thursday) and the start of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar. Biden has once again warned Tehran; Jordan has warned Iran and Israel about its airspace. In recent days, reports have emerged regarding the possibility of the Islamic Republic backing down from a direct attack on Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh's killing in Tehran due to international pressures on Iran. One source told Axios that the situation is still 'fluid' and discussions within Iran regarding a military response to Israel are ongoing. It was noted that the decision-making bodies in Iran may change their decision. The report adds that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is seeking an attack on Israel on a larger scale than the April 14 attack, during which over 300 missiles and drones from the Islamic Republic targeted Israeli territory, with 99% of them reportedly intercepted and destroyed by Israel and its allies. Axios's reporter writes that in recent days, debates within Iran between the IRGC and Masoud Pezeshkian, the President, and his advisors over the attack on Israel have intensified, with Pezeshkian opposing a severe Iranian response to Haniyeh's killing. Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Minister warned Iran and Hezbollah, the militia group affiliated with the Islamic Republic, in a statement on Sunday: 'Anyone who harms us will receive a response that will be unprecedented.' Yoav Gallant emphasized that Israel does not want to start a war on other fronts but must be prepared. On Saturday, the US President once again warned the Islamic Republic of Iran about a potential retaliatory attack against Israel and, in a brief response to reporters asking what message he has for Iran, said 'Do not act.' Additionally, Ayman Safadi, Jordan's Foreign Minister, stated in an interview with Al Arabiya that his country has informed both Iran and Israel that in the event of renewed hostilities between the two countries, 'any target in Jordan's airspace will be shot down.' Simultaneously, the official Islamic Republic news agency, IRNA, reported that the IRGC is conducting a five-day military exercise in western Iran. Morad Babakhani, the political and social deputy governor of Qasr-e Shirin, stated on Sunday, August 12, that this exercise is 'to enhance the combat readiness of the armed forces' and will continue until this Tuesday. Babakhani assured that people should not be concerned about the sounds of explosions resulting from the exercise. The Gilan-e Gharb County is located in the southwest of Kermanshah province, and Qasr-e Shirin is the third city of Kermanshah province near the Iran-Iraq border. This city borders Gilan-e Gharb to the east and the Kurdistan region and Iraq to the west. The IRGC's exercise is being held amid tensions in the Middle East and concerns in the region and the world about the possibility of a military attack by Iran on Israel, which could lead to an unpredictable Israeli response against Iran. Hezbollah has carried out a 'heavy drone attack' in northern Israel following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas's political bureau, in Tehran, which occurred hours after the targeted Israeli military attack that killed Foad Shukr, a senior military commander of Hezbollah, in Beirut. The emphasis by the Iranian Supreme Leader on 'blood vengeance' and the promises of Hezbollah's Secretary-General for retaliation have heightened concerns in the region and the world. Iranian officials and the Hamas group identify Israel as the perpetrator of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied this accusation. On Friday, Iranian media quoted Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the IRGC, stating that the Supreme Leader's orders regarding 'severe punishment of Israel and revenge for Haniyeh are clear and will be executed in the best possible way.'