Researchers: Scientific Modeling Likely Influenced U.S. Assessment of Iran's Nuclear Program

Researchers speaking with Voice of America provided new insights into Iran's nuclear scientific activities. It appears that these scientific endeavors have influenced the United States' decision to revise its assessment of the Iranian government's nuclear program. The new assessment indicates that the Islamic Republic is in a better position to weaponize its nuclear program. An unclassified assessment sent to Congress by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence in July states that the Islamic Republic has engaged in activities since 2020 that place it in a better position to produce a nuclear bomb if it chooses to do so. While this one-page assessment does not detail these activities, reports in American media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal and Axios from June, July, and August cited unnamed U.S. and Israeli officials expressing concern that the Iranian government is involved in computer modeling and metallurgy research applicable to nuclear weapons construction. These reports did not address the nature of the research or the motivations behind the Iranian government's activities. The new assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence removes the previous position in the 2023 report to Congress that the Iranian government 'is not currently undertaking the key activities necessary to produce a nuclear weapon.' Mike Turner, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, highlighted recent news reports regarding potential nuclear weapons-related work in Iran during an interview with CBS on Sunday. He described these reports as indicating the 'possibility' that Iran could declare itself a nuclear-armed state by the end of this calendar year. The Islamic Republic has long insisted that it is not seeking nuclear weapons. However, the latest assessment from the Director of National Intelligence indicates that there has been a 'significant increase in Iran's public statements regarding nuclear weapons this year, suggesting a reduction in the taboo surrounding the topic.' The Iranian permanent mission to the United Nations in New York did not respond to Voice of America's request on August 13 for comments on the nature of scientific research in Iran that seems to have prompted the revision of the Director of National Intelligence's assessment of the Islamic Republic's nuclear activities. One researcher who spoke with Voice of America, American physicist David Albright, stated that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence may have updated its assessment at least partially based on Iran's work in the area of 'computer modeling conducted within the framework of civilian research efforts' that 'benefits the nuclear weapons program.' Albright, who is the head of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, noted that he has found references to the use of software and computer codes for simulations useful in nuclear weapons design in recent Iranian scientific reports. This physicist, who has testified multiple times before Congress regarding his studies on clandestine nuclear weapons programs worldwide, stated that his team has reviewed over 150 Iranian scientific reports published in recent years obtained from open sources. He mentioned that some of these reports were published this year. According to Albright, 'This modeling work includes simulations of shock waves produced by explosively projecting metal fragments onto another solid metal. This modeling is essential for understanding how a nuclear explosion occurs.' He added that Iranian scientific reports do not describe simulations of shock waves impacting the core of a nuclear weapon. He emphasized that 'it is not clear from reading the documents that the authors are working on nuclear weapon codes.' Albright stated that Iranian scientists involved in recent computer modeling are likely concealing their weapons-related objectives as part of a deceptive behavioral pattern he has also found in his past reviews of two sets of confidential nuclear documents from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The head of the Institute for Science and International Security added that one set of documents dated back to 2006, which he and The Times of London obtained from an anonymous source the following year, and the other set was stolen by Israel from the Islamic Republic's nuclear archive in 2018, which Israeli officials provided to him. David Albright, in describing these two sets of documents in his 2021 book titled 'Tracking Dangerous Nuclear Weapons from Iran,' stated that these documents show that after the cessation of the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons program in 2003, as the International Atomic Energy Agency also reported, Iranian officials decided to preserve part of that program by delegating research projects to universities in Iran. He wrote that as part of this effort, Iranian researchers used cover stories to present their work as civilian and conceal their connections with officials involved in nuclear work. Another researcher who spoke with Voice of America, Ariel Levite from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based in Washington, stated that it seems the Iranian government has resumed research after several years of hiatus to fill the last gap in its nuclear weapons program. He said that significant steps are currently being taken in Iran to accumulate weapons-grade enriched uranium and develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Levite, a former senior Israeli nuclear and defense official, added that there are three ways to interpret the Iranian government's motivation for pursuing such research: a warning to the United States and Israel that it is prepared to take final steps toward nuclear weapons, an internal decision to downplay the 2004 fatwa by Ali Khamenei against the production of nuclear weapons, or that this research is an effort by overly pro-nuclear weapons Iranians to stretch the boundaries and limitations of Khamenei's fatwa as far as possible. Levite stated that one can only speculate about this and 'if I were to guess the motivation (for the research), I would say it is a combination of all three.' According to Albright, Iran's work in computer modeling reduces the number of tests needed to test a nuclear explosive device and gives the government greater confidence that such a device will work. He said, 'This (computer modeling) can save them time in building a bomb, but we do not know enough about their program to time it. Overall, they have taken enough action that they could confidently do this in less than six months.' Levite noted that he does not believe the latest scientific research in Iran would give the Islamic Republic the ability to produce its first rudimentary nuclear bomb in less than three to six months. He added, however, that given the progress the Islamic Republic's nuclear program has made, the timeline for Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons may have shortened. The Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee: The Islamic Republic may become nuclear by the end of 2024. The former Israeli Prime Minister says the head of the 'octopus' that is Tehran should be targeted. The Washington Post: The Islamic Republic is concerned about the 'neutralization' of its nuclear program in the event of a major attack on Israel. The Wall Street Journal report: The Islamic Republic has enough fuel to build a nuclear weapon, but lacks the will to do so. The son of the former U.S. President has become the head of the 'Alliance Against a Nuclear Iran.' Lindsey Graham: Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic are one; Israel has the right to target the masterminds of terrorism anywhere and anytime. The U.S. State Department emphasizes: We judge the Islamic Republic by its actions, not by its words and claims.