Results of Two State Elections in Germany: Historic Achievements for Far-Right and Far-Left Parties

The preliminary results of the state elections in Germany in the eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia indicate a heavy defeat for the ruling parties and historic victories for two populist parties from the far-left and far-right in Europe's largest economy. In Thuringia, the far-right party 'Alternative for Germany' garnered around 33% of the votes, marking the first victory for an extreme right party since the end of World War II in Germany. The newly established 'Zehra Wagenknecht Alliance', considered part of the left-wing populist spectrum in Germany, placed third with 15.8% of the votes, collecting more votes than all the parties currently in the ruling coalition in Germany. The ruling parties in Berlin have never experienced such a defeat in regional elections before. In Saxony, although the 'Christian Democratic Union' narrowly won the election, the 'Alternative for Germany' received more than twice the total votes of the three coalition government parties, namely the center-left Social Democrats, the environmentally friendly Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats, coming in second place. The results not only suggest that negotiations to form a government in these states could be difficult and lengthy but also undermine the authority of the German government. These results are likely to lead to increased internal conflicts within the ideologically diverse coalition of Olaf Scholz's government. However, Stefan Marshall, a political science professor at the University of Düsseldorf, told Reuters that it is unlikely the current government in Germany will fall, as 'this will not serve the interests of any of the three parties.' In this context, the Alternative for Germany has announced that, as is customary for victorious parties in state elections, it will invite other parties to form a coalition government in Thuringia. However, it is highly unlikely that other parties will respond positively to this invitation, and with the inability of the 'Alternative for Germany' to form a majority, the task will fall to the conservative Christian Democratic Union. The next complexity is that this party will also be unable to form a majority government in Thuringia without the support of the 'Zehra Wagenknecht Alliance', despite deep ideological differences. The 'Zehra Wagenknecht Alliance', founded in January 2024 by Iranian-German politician Zehra Wagenknecht, is a splinter group from the German Left Party. Wagenknecht, who was one of the two leaders of the Left Party in the German parliament, previously led an extreme left pressure group within the Left Party and has often praised the governance style of the German Democratic Republic, referring to it as 'the most peaceful and humanitarian policy that Germans have created in their entire history.' Nevertheless, Andre Brodocz, a political science professor at the University of Erfurt, told Reuters that as the power of the two populist parties, the 'Zehra Wagenknecht Alliance' from the left and the 'Alternative for Germany' from the right increases, the main parties will be more inclined to cooperate to form governmental majorities. However, voters of these parties may punish their respective parties for these incompatible coalitions by voting for disruptive parties in the next elections, creating a vicious cycle that has distorted the political landscape in this leading power of Europe.