Retired University of Tehran Professor: The Fall of the Islamic Republic Will Be Like the Collapse of the Soviet Union

Ahmad Naghibzadeh states, "Everyone in Iran has realized the necessity of negotiating with the U.S. except for one person who does not want to understand," and he predicts that the fall of the Islamic Republic will be akin to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Naghibzadeh, a retired political science professor at the University of Tehran and a prominent foreign policy analyst residing in Iran, compared the Islamic Republic's government to "communist regimes" in a detailed interview with Euronews published on Wednesday, April 6. He refers to what he calls "Ali Khamenei's presence at the top of the power pyramid," stating, "In Iran, just like in communist organizations, when a person rises through the power pyramid, they step on their comrades, and when they reach the top, they do whatever they want. The performance of the Islamic Republic is very similar to that of communist regimes." This political sociology graduate from the University of Paris also predicts that the fall of the Islamic Republic will resemble that of communist regimes: "I have previously said that the collapse of the Islamic Republic will likely happen like that of the Soviet Union. Since I issued this warning, they have been looking for an Ayatollah Gorbachev, and as soon as they think someone is ready to implement changes from above, they remove them from the way." Regarding Iran's foreign policy in 1404, which he describes as a year of "super crises," Naghibzadeh also points to Russia's significant influence in Iran and expresses concern that if Moscow intends to, it could even compel "Iran's government forces to hold a parade in the streets of Tehran." In recent years, relations between Iran and Russia have become much closer, especially under the government of Ebrahim Raisi, with Tehran and Moscow expanding their ties further. Additionally, the two countries signed a "comprehensive strategic cooperation" agreement on January 17, 1403, which, according to Tehran and Moscow, will enhance the level of relations between the two sides. Naghibzadeh predicts that as long as Russia's influence in Iran remains this high, Iran's relations with Western countries will not improve. In another part of his remarks, the retired political science professor links the death of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to Russia's activities in Iran. He states, "Hashemi Rafsanjani, as president and the team that worked with him, were all in favor of resolving the issue with the U.S., and I have no doubt that Hashemi lost his life over this issue and died suspiciously." According to state media reports in Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani died on January 8, 2017, while swimming in a pool belonging to the Expediency Discernment Council, suffering a heart attack. However, Mr. Hashemi's children have repeatedly called their father's death "suspicious" in interviews. Naghibzadeh continues the extensive interview by addressing tensions between Iran and the United States, identifying Ali Khamenei as the main obstacle. He notes what he calls the "stubbornness and personal grudges" of the Supreme Leader, stating that he believes "everyone in Iran has realized the necessity of negotiating with the U.S. except for one person who does not want to understand." In another part of this interview, he also predicts that Israel, in 1404, with the support of the United States, will target Iran's nuclear facilities, asserting that the potential attack by these two countries will be such that the Islamic Republic will no longer have the capacity to retaliate or launch another attack. This retired political science professor at the University of Tehran further states that "a wise approach from the Americans would be to smartly target the leaders of the Islamic Republic within the country." He suggests that a scenario similar to what happened with Ismail Haniyeh may await the main decision-makers of the Iranian government, stating, "Several strikes will likely occur, including the elimination of several high-ranking Islamic Republic figures; something that Israel has proven its capability to do. I do not think the Americans will act foolishly and enter Iran and do something that harms the people, as this would lead to more serious crises in the region." Ismail Haniyeh, the then-head of Hamas's political bureau, was killed on July 31, 2024, a day after attending the swearing-in ceremony of Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran. While the Islamic Republic claims that this senior figure of the extremist group Hamas was killed by an explosive projectile, Israeli media reported, citing security officials, that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh was due to a bomb planted under his bed in Tehran.