Return of Monthly Inflation to a Reliable Range

The Central Bank's report on inflation for the month of Dey indicates that the trend of decreasing inflation rate momentum has continued, with the annual inflation rate reaching 16.3%, showing a 0.5% decrease compared to the annual inflation rate ending in Azar this year. The point-to-point inflation rate for Dey experienced a growth of 15.7% compared to Dey last year, while the point-to-point inflation rate for Azar was reported at 16.7%, indicating a 1% decrease in the point-to-point inflation rate from Azar to Dey. However, a noteworthy point is the change in the monthly inflation rate trend in Dey. The monthly inflation rate in Azar reached its highest level since Tir 1392 at 1.9%, raising concerns about increasing inflation in the coming months. Nevertheless, this upward trend did not continue in Dey, and according to the Central Bank's report, the monthly inflation rate decreased to 0.3%, once again giving economists and experts hope for maintaining the achievements in controlling inflation in the coming months. The surge in the monthly inflation rate in Azar can be attributed to currency price shocks and their effect on the general price level, which, with relative price adjustments in the currency market and the cessation of severe fluctuations in this market, led to a significant decrease in the monthly inflation rate in Dey. The return of the monthly inflation rate to 0.3% prompted Valiollah Seif, the head of the Central Bank, to express hope that 'if no major changes occur in the last two months of the year, we will experience inflation below 16% by the end of the year.' An analysis of the price changes in the selected goods basket by Radio Farda also shows that the average price of this basket of 10 items increased by 5.5% in Dey compared to Dey last year. Onions experienced the highest price growth among these 10 food items during the period from Dey 1392 to Dey this year, with a 40.7% increase. The price of chicken meat, in Dey this year compared to the same month last year, saw a decrease of approximately 10% (9.24%), the largest price drop among these 10 selected items in Radio Farda's basket. Table 1 compares the details of price changes in Radio Farda's selected goods basket in Dey this year and last year. However, examining the prices of these 10 selected items in Dey this year compared to the previous month (Azar 1393) shows that the average price of this basket decreased by about 3% (2.94%). The largest price decrease among the items in this basket was recorded for tomatoes, which saw a decrease of about 32% (31.6%) during these two months. The highest price of onions also experienced a growth of 9.5% during these two months. Details of the price changes of the items in this basket can be seen in Table 2. An examination of the components analyzed in the consumer price index report indicates that the index for food and beverage items decreased by 0.3% in Dey compared to Azar, which aligns with the calculations of price changes in Radio Farda's selected goods basket. According to Alireza Moqaddai, the director of economic statistics at the Central Bank, this group has a high coefficient in calculating the inflation rate. The price index for this group in Dey 1393, compared to Dey last year, saw an increase of 11.1%. The highest monthly price growth among various goods and services groups was attributed to the health and medical group, which saw a 1.3% increase in its price index in Dey compared to Azar. The growth of this main group's price index in Dey 1393 compared to Dey 1392 was over 33%, about twice the inflation rate growth during this period. The report from the Statistical Center of Iran on the inflation rate for Dey in urban areas also confirms the continuing downward trend in inflation, with the point-to-point inflation rate for Dey reaching 14.4%. The 12-month inflation rate ending in Dey in that report also stabilized at less than 16%, at 15.8%. If we consider the reports from the Statistical Center of Iran on the inflation rate, the government has managed to bring the inflation rate below 16% two months earlier than promised by the end of the year. In this context, the annual inflation rate in Iran has decreased to 15.8%.