Return of the Qatari Ambassador to Tehran; Is a New Polarization on the Horizon?

The relationships between countries are not fixed and stable; they possess a fluid characteristic. Therefore, their friendships and enmities change according to their interests. A clear example of this characteristic can be seen in the rapprochement between Tehran and Doha. Following the execution of Sheikh Nimr, a Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia, and Tehran's protests, Doha, aligned with its larger brother in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Riyadh, expressed its dissatisfaction by recalling its ambassador from Tehran. Eighteen months after this decision by Doha, the Qatari ambassador has now returned to Tehran and has begun his work. The renewal of Doha's relationship with Tehran, which indicates the fluid nature of international relations, occurs at a time when Qatar and Riyadh, both members of the Cooperation Council, have severed their ties. In other words, since January 2016, when Riyadh and Doha's alignment led to a deterioration in Doha's relationship with Tehran, the conditions have changed in such a way that the divergence between Doha and Riyadh has resulted in an alignment between Doha and Tehran. This means that Doha no longer pays attention to Riyadh's dissatisfaction with Tehran's protests against the execution of Sheikh Nimr. On the other hand, the divergence between Doha and Riyadh is not merely a deterioration in the relations between the two Arab countries; it signifies the collapse of the structure of the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In other words, what currently exists among these six countries is the absence of the element of 'cooperation.' Thus, following the political bankruptcy of the Arab League as an ineffective Arab structure, one can now predict the bankruptcy of the Gulf Cooperation Council as the second failed Arab structure. The return of the Qatari ambassador is a sign of significant steps for the future. While one of the 13 conditions set by Saudi Arabia and other countries imposing sanctions on Qatar, namely the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain, was that Doha cut its relations with Tehran, Doha has now, by sending its ambassador back to Tehran, effectively made a significant 'gesture' to these countries, especially Saudi Arabia; particularly if we recall that another of the thirteen conditions was to expel members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from Qatari soil and to cut military and security cooperation with Tehran. Now, the Qatari Foreign Ministry has announced the return of its ambassador to Tehran, emphasizing that Doha is not only seeking to normalize its relations with Tehran but, moreover, aims to develop 'comprehensive' relations between the two countries in all areas, including military and security cooperation. This is nothing but an open defiance by Doha against Riyadh and its other Arab brothers. The lesson that Doha learned from the air, sea, and land blockade led by Saudi Arabia, along with the compliance of the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt, is not a lesson that Doha can forget forever. Doha will not forget that its Arab brothers imposed sanctions on this small country to the point of death. In this suffocating blockade, only the Iranian sea and air passage was the lifeline for Doha. The return of the Qatari ambassador to Tehran is Doha's appreciation of Tehran and a defiance against its larger brother, Saudi Arabia. This has also become a significant opportunity for Tehran to recruit allies from the Arab world and the Cooperation Council amid the troubled relations among Arab brothers, especially from a country that has $300 billion in foreign reserves and shared gas reserves with Iran. Therefore, one should not assume that the return of the Qatari ambassador to Tehran is merely a renewal of political relations between the two countries; rather, as explicitly stated in the Qatari Foreign Ministry's statement, it should be assumed that this decision is the first step towards larger decisions. By sending its ambassador to Tehran, Doha is distancing itself from Saudi Arabia and the Riyadh-influenced Cooperation Council while seeking to strengthen the gas triangle of Qatar-Iran-Russia on one side and the cooperation triangle of Qatar-Iran-Turkey on the other. Even if the relationship between Qatar and Riyadh normalizes, Doha will not forget the hostile behavior of its Arab brothers, in which Riyadh played a central role. Doha has learned a lesson that such punishment can be repeated at any time. Therefore, it must now think of a solution. Such a solution passes through Iran, which is Doha's lifeline. In the confrontation between Doha and Riyadh, as the Qatari Foreign Ministry's statement implicitly suggests, it is not far-fetched that Qatar will officially and publicly increase its military-security cooperation with Tehran, just as it has openly provided a military base to Turkey. As mentioned, the fluid nature of relations among the Gulf countries has now led to a situation where Qatar is cutting ties with Riyadh but taking steps towards renewing relations with Tehran. If we consider the Cooperation Council without Qatar as a collapsed or weakened entity that lacks the power to peacefully resolve disputes, we must inevitably believe that the region has entered a new polarization. In this polarization, Iran, Qatar, Russia, and Turkey are taking steps to overcome their differences and align more closely with each other. If this polarization takes full shape, it could reshape regional developments, including in Syria and Yemen, in such a way that neither Qatar nor Turkey insists on the ousting of Bashar al-Assad, or the presence of the Houthis in the power structure in Yemen is recognized. The inexperience of the new Saudi leaders in pushing Qatar out of the circle of Arab brothers has led to this country's closeness to Iran and Turkey. On the other hand, Qatar will not forget that Trump, under the influence of Riyadh, labeled Qatar as a state supporting terrorism. This, in turn, compels Doha to devise a new plan in its relations with Moscow, and as stated, the outcome of these developments will be a new polarization involving Iran, Qatar, Russia, and Turkey.