Reuters Analytical Report; Government Elections Dominated by Khamenei's 'Loyalists'

Reuters wrote in an analytical report that the outcome of the tightly controlled government elections, following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May, will impact the 'succession of Ali Khamenei, the senior decision-maker of [the Iranian] government.' Given that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic is currently 85 years old, it is possible that 'the next president will be closely involved in the final selection process of Khamenei's successor.' Therefore, this controlled government election process must ensure that candidates who share views loyal to Ali Khamenei dominate the presidential competition. The Reuters report adds that this election coincides with escalating regional tensions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, increasing Western pressure on Iran due to its rapidly advancing nuclear program, and rising domestic dissatisfaction over political, social, and economic crises. However, the issue of Khamenei's imminent succession, which is heavily anti-Western, is the main concern among Iran's clerical elite. The Guardian Council, a 'hardline body' composed of clerics and jurists aligned with Khamenei, has approved five 'hardline' candidates and one 'moderate' candidate from an initial pool of 80. Among the 'hardliners,' Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament and a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, stand out. The only candidate described by Reuters as 'moderate,' Masoud Pezeshkian, is supported by the 'reformist camp of Iran, which has been politically sidelined.' Khamenei has not publicly supported any candidate. However, Yahya Rahim Safavi, his advisor, has urged voters to 'choose a president whose views do not contradict those of the Supreme Leader.' Safavi, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, stated: 'People should choose a president who considers himself the second-in-command... The president should not create division.' Reuters writes that while the role of the president has a high international profile, real power lies with the Supreme Leader, who has the final say on state matters such as foreign or nuclear policy and controls all branches of government, the military, the media, and a significant portion of financial resources. The report states that 'Raisi was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei,' and his sudden death has sparked a race among hardliners seeking to influence the 'selection of Iran's next supreme leader.' Reuters continues that one Iranian source close to Khamenei, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, said that the leader 'does not tolerate political conflicts when cohesion among power holders is essential.' This informed source stated: 'A president who is loyal and fully aligned with the Supreme Leader, while also being trusted by the Revolutionary Guards, can significantly aid in a seamless transfer of power.' Reuters adds that while it is expected that religious supporters of the clerical system will vote for hardliners, 'many Iranians' may express their dissatisfaction with the repression of dissent and anger over worsening living standards among the limited electoral options. Pezeshkian's chances, who is strongly loyal to Khamenei, 'depend on attracting millions of disillusioned young voters who have been sidelined since 2020, as well as ongoing splits among the five hardline candidates.' Reuters notes in this analytical report that 'the electoral power of reformists is uncertain' as some voters believe they failed to provide greater freedoms during their previous time in power. The unrest following the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman in custody in 2022, revealed the rift between reformists and their power base after 'reformist leaders' distanced themselves from protesters calling for 'regime change.' Reuters states that 'reformists have remained loyal to Iran's theocratic government' but support de-escalation with the West, economic reforms, social liberalization, and political pluralism. Iranian dissidents, both inside and outside the country, have called for a boycott of the elections, widely distributing the hashtag 'election circus' on social media X, arguing that high participation legitimizes the Islamic Republic. Narges Mohammadi, an imprisoned Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner, stated in a message from Evin Prison in Tehran that this vote will be a 'fake' election. She said the government relied on repression to maintain power, and its goal in holding elections 'is not to support democracy and people's rights, but to strengthen power and tyranny.' However, prominent reformist politicians have warned that low voter turnout will allow 'hardliners' to maintain their control over all branches of government. Reuters adds that Raisi won in 2021 with around 49% participation, a significant decrease from 70% in 2017 and 76% in 2013. The five 'hardline' candidates largely avoided discussion of social and political freedoms during their election campaigns and televised debates, while acknowledging the country's economic problems without offering specific plans to address the crisis. Reuters concludes this report by stating that Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old former health minister, 'is an advocate for social freedoms and has spoken about the rights of women and ethnic minorities' in the Islamic Republic. He has pledged to promote a 'more pragmatic' foreign policy. If none of the candidates receives at least 50% plus one of the total votes, including blank votes, a second round will be held between the top two candidates. The transition of the Iranian people from the Islamic Republic; Shahin Modarresi believes that 'overthrow' is the main discourse. Sina Azadi: The people of Iran are angry with the government and disappointed with participating in the elections. The expansion of opposition to the process of determining Raisi's replacement; the families of the bereaved consider participation in this show as 'hostility to freedom.'