Reuters Assessment of Increased Rocket Attacks by Iraqi Shiite Militias on Israel; Not Beneficial for Any Party

Iran-backed Shiite armed groups in Iraq have expanded their rocket attacks on Israel in recent weeks, raising concerns in Washington and among some of Iran's allies about potential Israeli retaliation and heightened regional tensions. According to a Reuters analysis, while these attacks are often viewed by Western officials and Israeli experts as less of a threat compared to pinpoint attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, their frequency and complexity have increased. U.S. officials and Israeli military statements indicate that at least two of the rocket attacks have hit their targets, while others were intercepted and shot down by U.S. and Israeli defense forces. However, new weapons such as cruise missiles have been regularly used since May, making them harder to eliminate for air defenses. Mike Knights, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who tracks these attacks, told Reuters, 'Overall, the intensity and types of weapon systems being used have significantly increased.' He added, 'This complicates Israel's job and raises the financial costs of defense.' Knights stated that the Iraqi groups' attacks on Israel are launched from areas south of Baghdad and in the border region between Iraq and Syria, which are dominated by Iran-backed groups. He explained that to reach Israel from Iraq, projectiles must fly over Syria, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia. Reuters spoke with dozens of sources, including those in Iraqi armed groups and other factions within Iran's regional ally network known as the 'Resistance Axis,' alongside U.S. officials and other regional experts. Most agreed to interview and provide candid assessments on the condition of anonymity. They indicated that the Iraqi groups' attacks, including those by Kata'ib Hezbollah and Nujaba, are raising concerns for Washington. These movements are also being monitored with concern among some Iranian officials and their powerful ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has carefully calibrated its conflict with Israel to avoid escalating into a full-blown regional crisis. Hussein al-Mousawi, a spokesman for Nujaba, one of the Shiite armed groups in Iraq participating in the attacks on Israel, told Reuters that these attacks are a natural evolution of the military capabilities of Iraqi groups and aim to increase the costs of war in Gaza. He emphasized that they intend to continue these attacks from any location for as long as necessary. A senior official from the 'Resistance Axis' stated that while Iran is eager for Iraqi groups to participate in the regional battle against Israel, their willingness to miscalculate is a constant source of concern. He noted that Iraqi groups had previously inadvertently escalated major regional tensions in January of this year when they killed three American soldiers in a drone attack on an American base in Jordan. On the other hand, the Iraqi government, which carefully balances its friendly relations with Washington and Tehran, does not officially acknowledge these rocket attacks but has been unable or unwilling to stop them. Critics argue that this type of positioning by the Iraqi government regarding missile attacks from its territory reflects the limitations of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's power in a coalition government that includes Iran-backed armed groups. According to critics' assessments of the Iraqi Prime Minister, this situation may undermine efforts to rebrand Iraq as a 'stable' and 'open for business' country. This is while Iraq does not recognize Israel as a country, and Israel views Iraq as an Iranian puppet state and a primary corridor for weapons from Iran to other armed groups, including Hezbollah. Iraqi groups that formed after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and during the battle against U.S. forces at that time joined the Syrian civil war to support Iran's ally, Bashar al-Assad, and gained a foothold in the territory near the border with Israel. An Iraqi shadow group claimed responsibility for drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2021 and 2022.