Reuters cites three Iranian officials: A ceasefire in Gaza will deter Iran from attacking Israel

Three senior officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran say that only achieving a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip will deter the Iranian government from taking direct retaliatory action against Israel. Reuters, quoting these three unnamed officials, wrote that this indicates a kind of retreat from previous reports suggesting the Islamic Republic's intention to attack Israel before the talks on Thursday, August 16. The news agency quoted a person it called a 'senior security official' of the Islamic Republic, stating that if the Gaza-related talks fail or if Israel pursues a policy of stalling in negotiations, the Islamic Republic, along with its allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, will carry out a direct attack on Israel. Reports in recent days indicated that Israel believes the Islamic Republic wants to attack the country before extending negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas. The Islamic Republic has promised to respond severely to Israel in retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, blaming Israel for this assassination, although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied such an action. Meanwhile, Reuters noted that the Iranian Foreign Ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as the Israeli Prime Minister's Office and the U.S. State Department, did not respond to the news agency's inquiries. John Kirby, the White House spokesperson, told reporters on Monday, August 7, that 'something may happen this week by Iran and its proxy forces... This is the assessment of the United States and also the assessment of Israel.' In the meantime, the U.S. Navy has sent several cruisers and a submarine to the Middle East to strengthen Israel's defensive capabilities. John Kirby, the National Security Council's Strategic Communications Coordinator, said on Monday that the U.S. is prepared for potential 'major attacks' from the Iranian government or its proxy groups in the Middle East. He stated that the United States, like Israel, is concerned about a possible attack from the Iranian government and its proxies, which is why it has increased its military presence in the Middle East in recent days. At the same time, an Israeli Defense Ministry official told Voice of America that Israel is 'preparing for a range of different scenarios' against the Iranian government and its proxy groups. This Israeli Defense Ministry official emphasized 'close coordination of defensive arrangements with the United States,' stating that Yoav Galant, Israel's Defense Minister, speaks several times a week with Lloyd Austin, the U.S. Defense Secretary, and that there is a high level of 'operational and strategic coordination at all levels.' This Israeli official further appreciated the United States for 'deploying significant amounts of equipment and forces in the region,' emphasizing the close cooperation between the two countries to ensure interoperability between their military forces. In another part of its report, Reuters quoted Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, stating that he believes Iran prioritizes its needs to assist its ally Hamas but at the same time wants to avoid an all-out war. He added that Iranians have never made their strategies and policies subordinate to the needs of proxy groups. Meir Litvak noted that an attack by the Islamic Republic is 'likely and almost inevitable, but I do not know the scale and timing of it.' Saeed Leilaz, an analyst residing in Iran, also told Reuters that the leaders of the Islamic Republic are now eager to work for a ceasefire in Gaza; 'to gain motivation, avoid an all-out war, and strengthen their position in the region.' He pointed out that Tehran had not previously participated in the Gaza peace process but is now ready to play a 'key role' in the negotiations. Saeed Leilaz did not provide further details regarding the 'key role' he mentioned. Reuters also quoted two Iranian officials stating that 'Iran is considering sending a representative to the ceasefire negotiations, which would be the first since the start of the war in Gaza.' According to these two sources, 'this representative will not participate directly in the sessions but will engage in behind-the-scenes discussions 'to maintain a line of diplomatic communication' with the United States during the ongoing negotiations. The news agency noted that U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian officials did not immediately respond to questions regarding whether the Islamic Republic would have an indirect role in the negotiations. Meanwhile, according to the state news agency IRNA, the Iranian representation at the United Nations announced that 'Iran has not participated and will not participate in the indirect ceasefire talks in Gaza mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. between Israel and Hamas.' In this context, two senior sources close to Hezbollah in Lebanon told Reuters that Tehran is allowing negotiations to take place but will not abandon its intention for revenge. One of these sources stated that a ceasefire in Gaza provides Iran with an excuse for a smaller and 'symbolic' response.