Reuters: Kirkuk Oil as Iran's Reward for Intervention in Iraq Crisis

A few days after the announcement of negotiations between Iranian and Iraqi officials regarding the transfer of part of Kirkuk oil to the Kermanshah refinery, Reuters reported, citing commercial and official sources, that the first oil shipment from the Kirkuk region of Iraq will arrive in Iran within a few days. The report adds that control over Kirkuk oil exports is a 'reward' that the Iranian government has received in exchange for helping the central Iraqi government to neutralize the independence of the Kurdistan region. After 2014, when control of the Kirkuk region fell into the hands of the Kurdistan region, the oil produced in this area was exported via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline through Kurdish areas of Iraq to the Ceyhan port in Turkey and global markets. However, after the Kurdish independence referendum, the central Iraqi government, with the help of the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi), supported by Iran, regained control of the Kirkuk region from the Kurdistan region and agreed with Iran to send part of this oil to Iran. Reuters writes that the proxy war between Iran and U.S. regional rivals, including Saudi Arabia, in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, along with the issue of transferring Kirkuk oil to the Kermanshah refinery, has heightened concerns in Washington and Riyadh. The report adds that under the new agreement, 15,000 barrels of oil worth one million dollars will be sent from Kirkuk to Iran daily via oil tankers in the coming days. Several official and commercial sources told Reuters that this figure will gradually increase to 60,000 barrels per day. Reuters notes that Baghdad and Tehran are also negotiating the construction of a pipeline from Kirkuk to central Iran so that oil from the Kirkuk region can be exported through Iran and the Persian Gulf. Recently, Hamid Hosseini, Secretary-General of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce, announced that with the construction of a pipeline, 650,000 barrels of oil from the Kurdish regions of Iraq and Kirkuk could be transferred to Iranian refineries or exported through Iran daily. Reuters states that 'the issue of transferring Kurdistan and Kirkuk oil through Iran could challenge Turkey's hopes of becoming an energy transit hub for the region and Europe. On the other hand, the U.S. failure to connect with its Iraqi allies has rapidly increased Iran's influence in the country. According to Reuters, part of this issue is 'under the shadow of the efforts of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force.' The IRGC is eager to enter the Iraqi oil trade. The news agency writes that 'Soleimani traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan this October to convey Iran's warnings to the region's officials regarding the independence referendum and was also involved in the operation to retake Kirkuk by Iraqi forces.' Despite reports from Reuters and other news agencies about Qassem Soleimani's role in the retaking of Kirkuk by Baghdad, Haider al-Abadi, the Prime Minister of Iraq, denied this in an interview with the British newspaper Independent on November 1, stating that Soleimani's influence on the events in Kirkuk was 'zero.' In any case, an official from Erbil told Reuters that 'the Kurds' dream of becoming a major oil exporter has gone up in smoke, and Iran is set to dominate this game.' Reuters writes that Turkey and Iran, both of which have large Kurdish populations, have been furious about the Kurdistan region's move towards independence and consider it a regional threat. The U.S. had also warned the Kurdistan region against holding the independence referendum. However, Reuters notes that local political sources in Iraqi Kurdistan believe that internal disputes among Kurdish parties led to the failure of the independence plan. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, unlike the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party, had previously been willing to export Kirkuk oil through Iran. Shirzad Yabe, an advisor to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, told Reuters that this party had previously negotiated with Masoud Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan region, about joint management of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah and ending the illegal control of oil fields in these areas by the Kurdistan region, but Mr. Barzani strongly opposed it. He stated that some members of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan had also contacted Iran and Iraq regarding a pipeline for exporting Kirkuk oil to Bandar Abbas. Nevertheless, the issue of constructing the pipeline was ultimately agreed upon between the central Iraqi government and the Iranian Ministry of Oil. With the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan deteriorating after mid-October, oil exports from this region have decreased by 300,000 barrels per day, which is estimated to have a total value of about one billion dollars so far. In this context, the Kurdistan region accepted the Iraqi Supreme Court's ruling banning separation.