Reuters: Lebanon No Longer Has Military Capability to Fight Israel

Reuters reported, citing 'informed sources', that Hezbollah, backed by the Islamic Republic, understands that it no longer has the military capability to engage in another war with Israel and takes Lebanon's crises into account when planning its next steps in the conflict with Israel. According to the report, as the war between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah's Palestinian ally, resonates throughout the Middle East, the risk of war between Hezbollah and Israel is more likely than ever since their last major conflict in 2006. The United States, the European Union, and Japan have designated the Hamas militia, which is supported by the Islamic Republic, as a terrorist group. Analysts believe that if Hezbollah sees Hamas on the verge of defeat in Gaza, it may seek to escalate tensions, but Lebanese leaders are concerned that Israel might decide to engage in a major conflict with Hezbollah in response. However, with Israel's warnings, Hezbollah knows that opening a second front would bring 'devastation' to Lebanon, and the costs for a country that has endured one of the most destabilizing periods since the civil war from 1975 to 1990 would be heavy. An informed source familiar with Hezbollah told Reuters, 'Hezbollah has no interest in war. Lebanon has no interest in war.' Many are questioning who will fund reconstruction with the government treasury empty. Some are also asking whether Gulf Arab states, led by Sunnis who funded Lebanon's reconstruction in 2006, will help again given Hezbollah's larger role in Lebanon this time. Nevertheless, Reuters states that Hezbollah has shown its readiness for war, indicating its position as a leader in the Iran-backed coalition against Israel and the United States. Lebanese politicians have urged Hezbollah not to escalate tensions, although they have little influence over its decision-making. Reuters quoted Walid Jumblatt, a Druze leader, saying, 'Lebanon's fate is at risk.' He stated that Lebanese people cannot do anything to stop a war provoked by Israel. He told the media, 'But on our part, we must control the situation through dialogue and advise our brothers in Hezbollah to maintain the rules of engagement.' Israel's President Isaac Herzog has said that Israel is not seeking confrontation on its northern borders, but if Hezbollah drags it into war, it must be clear that Lebanon will pay the price. Decades of corruption and mismanagement by Lebanon's ruling politicians led to the financial system's collapse in 2019, erasing savings, destroying currency, and plunging Lebanon into poverty. Lebanon is effectively without a government and remains without a president amid factional struggles. Reconstruction of Lebanon after the 2006 war, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 mostly civilians, took years. After the 2006 war, which began after Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed several Israelis in a cross-border raid, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, stated that the group did not foresee the war and would not have carried out the operation had it known it would lead to war. According to Reuters, seventeen years later, Hezbollah's extensive arsenal, supported by the Islamic Republic, has shifted the balance of power in its favor against opponents. Ghassan Hasbani, a prominent member of the Lebanese Forces party, a Christian faction strongly opposed to Hezbollah, said, 'They decide for war and peace, and this is completely unacceptable.' Reuters states that there are serious concerns about Hezbollah dragging Lebanon into a destructive confrontation, especially as its social and economic fragility means Lebanon cannot withstand further instability. Mohannad Hage Ali from the Middle East Institute at Carnegie said that Hezbollah is seriously considering how to finance reconstruction after any war and is questioning whether Gulf Arab states will help and how much cash Iran will provide. He stated, 'If reconstruction does not take place, it will certainly have a political cost for Hezbollah... People will ask questions, and widespread anger will arise.' Netanyahu warned: If Hezbollah attacks, Lebanon will pay the price. Forest fires in southern Lebanon occurred as a result of exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel: Reconstruction of the south after the Hamas attack will take years. Ground attack on Hamas positions in Gaza; Israel: More attacks are on the way. The Israeli army conducted air and drone strikes in southern Lebanon, targeting Hamas positions in northern Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Eight Syrian soldiers were killed in Israeli airstrikes.