Reuters Report on the Benefits, Risks, and Obstacles of the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Agreement Amid Jake Sullivan's Visit

Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Advisor, has traveled to Saudi Arabia to discuss a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement that is part of a broader deal that Washington hopes will lead to the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Reuters reported on Saturday, May 18, addressing key issues related to this agreement, the risks and benefits it may hold for the United States and Saudi Arabia, and how it fits into U.S. efforts to mediate the normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia. According to Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the United States may negotiate agreements for peaceful nuclear cooperation with other countries. This law specifies nine criteria of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that these countries must adhere to in order to prevent the technology for developing nuclear weapons or the transfer of sensitive materials in their development to others. The law explicitly refers to congressional review of such treaties. Why does Saudi Arabia want this agreement? As the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia is not an obvious candidate for developing a civilian nuclear program, which is typically aimed at building power plants for electricity generation. The reason for Riyadh's desire to reach an agreement with Washington primarily fits within the framework of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious reform program known as "Vision 2030," which emphasizes the goal of renewable energy production and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, part of which is expected to come from nuclear energy. A second reason, pointed out by critics, is that Riyadh may want to gain expertise in this area in case it decides to produce nuclear weapons one day, despite safeguards mentioned in every deal with Washington to prevent this. The Crown Prince has long stated that if the Islamic Republic of Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will also pursue this path, a position that has raised deep concerns among nuclear disarmament advocates and some U.S. lawmakers regarding a potential U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement. The benefit for the United States? Reuters states that this agreement could yield strategic and commercial gains for the United States. The Biden administration has explicitly sought to mediate a long-term, multi-faceted agreement that guides Saudi Arabia and Israel toward normalizing relations. Washington believes that acceptance of normalization with Israel may partly depend on achieving a civilian nuclear agreement. The strategic benefits of this agreement include strengthening Israel's security, creating a broader coalition against the Islamic Republic, and enhancing U.S. relations with one of the wealthiest Arab countries at a time when China is seeking to expand its influence in the Gulf region. The commercial advantage is that it positions U.S. nuclear industries to secure contracts for building Saudi nuclear power plants, especially as U.S. nuclear companies compete with Russia, China, and others for global trade in this sector. What obstacles stand in the way of this agreement? First of all, nothing is conceivable in the context of the Israel-Hamas war. Israel launched an attack on Gaza following Hamas's assault on southern Israel on October 7, which, according to Israeli statistics, killed about 1,200 people and took 253 hostage. It is hard to imagine that the Saudis would be willing to normalize relations with Israel under such circumstances. The nuclear agreement fits within a broader deal. The United States hopes to find a way to grant several concessions to Saudi Arabia in exchange for Riyadh's agreement to normalize relations with Israel: a civilian nuclear treaty, security guarantees, and a pathway to the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, viewed as part of a "grand deal" in the Middle East, remains shrouded in ambiguity. What are the key issues in the agreement? A key issue is whether Washington might agree to build a uranium enrichment facility on Saudi soil, when this might happen, and whether Saudi personnel might have access to it or if it would only be operated by American staff in a "black box." Without the safeguards present in an agreement, Saudi Arabia, which has uranium mines, could theoretically use enrichment facilities to produce enriched uranium at levels close to those needed for nuclear bomb production. Another issue is whether Riyadh would agree to Saudi investment in a U.S.-based uranium enrichment plant owned by the U.S. and hiring American companies to build Saudi nuclear reactors.