Reuters Report on the Sensitive Situation in the Middle East; Is the Countdown to War Underway?

As Israel prepares to attack the Islamic Republic and continues to target Hezbollah positions in Lebanon with intensity, the likelihood of a large-scale war across the Middle East has increased. Reuters, citing several informed and experienced sources in intelligence and military affairs, reports that despite the escalating crisis, efforts are underway to rein in Israel and the Islamic Republic to prevent a widespread war between them that could involve other countries. These experts told Reuters that it is highly unlikely that Israel will not retaliate for the recent missile attack by the Islamic Republic on this country in the coming days. During this attack, Tehran fired over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, which according to Israel and the U.S. was an 'unsuccessful' attack with no casualties. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, stated in a cabinet security meeting on Tuesday that 'anyone who attacks us, we will attack them.' An informed source, who wished to remain anonymous due to security concerns, told Reuters that Israeli officials have informed their American counterparts that Israel's attack on the Islamic Republic will be 'calculated,' but they have not yet provided a final list of potential targets. Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and negotiator during two Palestinian uprisings, stated that Israel will select its targets with 'precision' and 'accuracy.' He added that key military centers in Iran, such as missile infrastructure, communication centers, and power plants, are likely candidates for this operation. Many interviewed experts, including more than half of former military, intelligence, and diplomatic officials from the U.S. and the Middle East, believe there is little chance that Israel will strike Iran's oil infrastructure or the Islamic Republic's nuclear sites. They argue that such actions would likely provoke a severe response from the Islamic Republic and could target the oil facilities of U.S.-allied Arab countries in the region. U.S. President Joe Biden, in response to a question on whether he has asked Israel not to attack Iran's oil facilities, stated that he does not negotiate in public. He had previously mentioned that he is in discussions with Israel regarding such attacks, which have caused a rise in global oil prices. In recent weeks, Israel has surprised everyone with its ongoing attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Islamic Republic's ally, ranging from pager explosions to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of this militant group, and other commanders, as well as air and ground assaults in southern Lebanon. Norman Roule, a former senior CIA officer who served as the senior U.S. intelligence community manager for Iran from 2008 to 2017, stated that it is unwise for foreign countries to attempt to predict Israel's attack plans. He added, however, that if Israel decides on a proportional yet fundamental attack, it may target the Islamic Republic's missiles or the Quds Force officials who direct Tehran's attacks and its proxy groups against Israel. The Quds Force is a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran. Roule, a senior advisor to the 'United Against a Nuclear Iran' group, stated that Israel could target Iranian facilities that refine gasoline and diesel for domestic consumption. He further noted that by avoiding attacks on the Islamic Republic's oil export facilities, Israel could prevent Tehran from retaliating against the oil facilities of Gulf Arab countries and significantly increasing global oil prices.