Reuters: Satellite Images Indicate Development of Two Ballistic Missile Centers in Iran

Recent satellite images indicate significant construction at two major ballistic missile centers in Iran. Two American researchers assessed that the development of these centers is aimed at increasing missile production. Reuters reports that this conclusion was confirmed by three senior Iranian officials who requested anonymity. The expansion of these sites follows an October 2022 agreement in which the Islamic Republic of Iran agreed to provide missiles to Russia, which has been seeking these missiles for its war in Ukraine. According to American officials, the Islamic Republic is also supplying missiles to the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, both of whom are members of the 'resistance axis' supported by the Islamic Republic against Israel. Images from the commercial satellite company Planet Labs show over 30 new buildings at the Shahid Modarres military base in March and the Khajir missile production complex in April. Both facilities are located near Tehran. Reuters states that the images it reviewed show that many of the structures are surrounded by large earthen berms. Jeffrey Lewis, from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, said, 'Such berms are associated with missile production and are designed to prevent an explosion in one building containing highly flammable materials from affecting another adjacent structure.' Lewis noted that development at Khajir began in August of last year and at Modarres in October of that year. According to Reuters, three Iranian officials who were not authorized to speak publicly confirmed that Modarres and Khajir are being developed to enhance the production of conventional ballistic missiles. One of them said, 'Why shouldn't we do this?' Another Iranian official stated that some of the new buildings also allow for a 'doubling' of drone production. This source also mentioned that drones and missile components are sold to Russia, while drones will be provided to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah. Reuters could not independently verify the statements of the Iranian officials. The Iranian representative at the United Nations did not respond to Reuters' request for comment on the expansion of these complexes. The Islamic Republic has previously denied selling drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis. The media office of Hezbollah did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Mohammed Abdulsalam, the spokesman for the Houthis, claimed that increased weapons production in Iran would have no impact in Yemen, as the Houthis, according to him, develop and produce drones independently of Iran. Lewis analyzed the images from Planet Labs along with Deker Olt, an analyst and researcher at CNA, a think tank in Washington, as part of the 'Middlebury' project that monitors Iran's missile infrastructure. Lewis stated that we know Russia is seeking low-cost missile capabilities and has turned to the Islamic Republic of Iran and North Korea. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied transferring North Korean missiles to Russia. Any increase in missile or drone production in Iran would be concerning for the United States. Washington has stated that Iranian drones assist in the continuation of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. These actions are also concerning for Israel, which is countering attacks from Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah. The U.S. Director of National Intelligence's office declined to comment on the analysts' assessments. A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council refrained from confirming their evaluation, adding that the United States has implemented various measures, including sanctions, aimed at limiting the production and export of missiles and drones from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Modarres and Khajir sites are overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which plays a central role in the Islamic Republic's missile and nuclear programs. The IRGC controls a large part of Iran's economy and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. These complexes have long been associated with the development and production of Iran's short- and medium-range ballistic missiles for the country's space program. On November 11, 2011, a massive explosion destroyed a large part of the Shahid Modarres center associated with solid-fueled missiles, killing 17 IRGC personnel. One of them was Hassan Moghadam, whom the Islamic Republic regards as the 'architect' of its ballistic missile program. According to Reuters, a second Iranian source said construction at the Modarres site, which resumed after the 2011 explosion, accelerated last year.