Review of Ali Khamenei's Economic Directive in the Context of the Year’s Slogan; Government's Economic Performance is Indefensible

A Tehran-based newspaper has followed up on Ali Khamenei's economic directive framed as the year's slogan, 'Controlling Inflation and Growing Production,' by consulting 10 economists and economic experts, ultimately giving a failing grade to the economy in the past year. The Ham Mihan newspaper reported on Sunday, March 18, that in 1402 (2023), the purchasing power of economic units decreased due to inflation, and production slowed down. According to the newspaper, production experienced a decline, while inflation and reduced access to energy, alongside decreased liquidity, accelerated the closure of economic units. The report also included economists' opinions, with Davood Soori stating that 'the government has not succeeded in controlling inflation, and the published statistics regarding production indicate that the country's economic growth is due to increased oil revenues, not production growth.' Ali Saadouni, another economist, voted against the realization of the year's slogan, stating that 'the government's actions are not defensible at all. Some issues may be temporarily controlled through currency injections, money supply increases, and gold injections, but this trend will not continue.' Hamid Mirmaeini, an economic analyst, also described the unfavorable economic conditions, saying, 'It seems that 1403 (2024) will be even harder; the government's economic performance is indefensible.' Amir Hossein Khalighi, a political economy researcher, described the economic programs as failed and emphasized that 'the political risks are so high and large that some policies, even those aimed at improving the business environment, do not show their effects.' Peyman Molavi, another economic expert, commented on the government's achievements in fulfilling Khamenei's directive, stating, 'From the beginning of the year, it was clear that the year's slogan would not be realized because fulfilling the slogan requires real prerequisites. Controlling inflation requires a coherent monetary policy, part of which would have involved raising interest rates, which did not happen.' Molavi emphasized that 'another part of this slogan related to production growth and economic growth, which unfortunately did not occur due to the continuation of sanctions.' Meanwhile, reports published on the government's economic performance over the past year indicate that no group or sector is satisfied with the conditions, and most predictions for the coming year indicate a year full of economic, political, and even social risks. Some media outlets and analysts, considering the predictions and political developments in Iran, do not rule out the possibility of widespread economic protests in the country. Sara Bazavandi: If workers' wages increase in line with inflation, employers will protest. The government's hand in determining the minimum wage has been revealed: a proposed 20% increase and widespread protests. Poverty is the main factor behind the increase in student dropouts in Iran. The inflation puzzle; a 35% inflation rate is predicted for food products in the new year. The dollar rate has crossed 60,000 tomans; gold coins are nearing 38 million tomans. The campaign for a minimum wage of 15 million tomans has gathered about 70,000 signatures. The heavy shadow of poverty over the Haft-Seen table; Nowruz 1403 (2024) does not smell of gifts. The regulation of the market for the New Year and Ramadan is in a coma; the engine of inflation has been turned on.