Revisiting Israel's Attack on Four Locations: Several Acts and Layers

On the morning of November 5, Israel conducted a "precise and targeted" operation involving at least 100 fighter jets, attacking over 20 military positions primarily related to the air defense of the Islamic Republic across four provinces: Tehran, Semnan, Ilam, and Khuzestan. These retaliatory strikes by Israel followed a missile attack by the Islamic Republic on October 1, during which over 180 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel. Israel opted to target military positions of the Islamic Republic amid widespread speculation in the media about the possibility of attacks on nuclear facilities, energy infrastructures, and even political and military figures, including Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic. Myri Aizin, a retired colonel and director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University in Israel, stated in an interview with Voice of America that reports indicate between 100 to 150 Israeli aircraft attacked 15 to 20 military positions related to the Iranian government's air defense, as well as missile and drone production sites. In response to a question regarding the potential entry of Israeli F-35 fighters into Iranian airspace during these attacks, he mentioned that Israel is currently not providing information on this matter due to the possibility of ongoing conflicts and further attacks against Islamic Republic positions within Iran. According to the latest available information, during the attacks on the morning of November 5, Islamic Republic positions in the provinces of Tehran, Semnan, Ilam, and Khuzestan were targeted. In Tehran province, military sites in Parchin, Khajir, and the Tayco industrial factory in the Shamsabad industrial complex were among the targets of Israel's attack. Farzin Nadimi, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute, told Voice of America that the Parchin site is where the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group operates, focusing primarily on liquid fuel production. He noted that given the increasing importance of solid fuel in missile industries, the Parchin site has now also turned to solid fuel production. Satellite images from Planet Labs PBS of the Parchin military site, located about 40 kilometers southeast of downtown Tehran and near the Mamlou Dam, show that one structure has been completely destroyed and other structures have sustained damage. David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Decker Olet, a researcher at the American think tank CNA, stated based on satellite images that facilities used for mixing solid fuel for missiles at the Parchin military site were targeted in Israel's attack. Albright, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), referenced commercial satellite images indicating that Israel targeted a building at Parchin known as "Taleqan 2," which was used for experimental activities during the now-defunct nuclear weapon development program known as "Amad." He added that even if the Islamic Republic had removed key materials from this building before Israel's airstrike, the intrinsic value of the building for future nuclear weapons-related activities should not be overlooked. Albright continued that satellite images from Parchin show that Israel damaged three other buildings located 320 meters from "Taleqan 2." In two of these three buildings, solid fuel for ballistic missiles was being mixed. In this context, Decker Olet noted that satellite images from Planet Labs PBS indicate the destruction of three buildings used for mixing solid missile fuel and a warehouse at Parchin. Based on satellite images from the Khajir site, at least two structures damaged by Israel's attack can be observed at this site located 20 kilometers from downtown Tehran. According to Olet, Israel targeted a missile production site in Khajir near Tehran. Analysts indicate that Khajir has an underground tunnel system and missile production sites that the Islamic Republic has secretly constructed. Farzin Nadimi told Voice of America that the Shahid Bakri Missile Industries Center at the Khajir site works on solid-fuel missiles. The two damaged structures observed in the satellite images from Planet Labs PBS of this military site were likely used for mixing solid missile fuel. Regarding the Tayco factory located in the Shamsabad industrial complex south of Tehran, Farzin Nadimi mentioned that Tayco is active in the oil and gas sector, and Israel's potential attack on this factory could be due to its involvement in manufacturing mixers used in missile industries. Shahrud (Semnan province): The Islamic Republic, despite confirming Israel's attacks on its positions in the three provinces of Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan, did not mention the Shahrud missile base. However, the Associated Press reported on Tuesday, November 8, that Israel also targeted the ballistic missile production base and missile launch facilities related to the IRGC's space program located in Shahrud during its attacks on the morning of Saturday, November 5. Satellite images attributed to the Shahrud Space Center belonging to the IRGC show that it was destroyed in the Israeli attack. According to Farzin Nadimi, the production of solid fuel for ballistic missiles is concentrated at the Shahrud site by the IRGC. Published photos from the Shahrud site indicate that one of the solid fuel production buildings at this site has been destroyed. Farzin Nadimi believes that the presence of hundreds of missiles at this site, as seen in satellite images, confirms that the Islamic Republic is engaged in missile production there. In this regard, Fabian Hintz, a defense and military researcher, told Voice of America that the Shahrud site has transformed over recent years from a center solely for research and development in the IRGC's space program into a facility for mass production of ballistic missiles, making it highly significant for the Islamic Republic. Ilam and Khuzestan provinces: The Islamic Republic initially claimed that Israeli fighter jets attacked border radar systems around Tehran and in the two provinces of Ilam and Khuzestan using "very light" warheads. Farzin Nadimi, in his interview with Voice of America, referred to the geographical position of Ilam province on the border with Iraq, mentioning the deployment of defensive groups, including Abdanan and the Nehjir defense site. He noted that Nehjir has radar capabilities and is an electronic intelligence site that can collect electronic information by listening to electromagnetic activities in the sky over Iraq and beyond. However, he added that it is still unclear whether this site was targeted in Israel's attack. Regarding Khuzestan province, he stated that Ahvaz and Mahshahr host Russian-made radars. This senior researcher at the Washington Institute pointed out that the effectiveness of Russian-made defense systems and radars is superior compared to those made by the Islamic Republic, and disabling them during recent attacks opens up more options for Israel for future strikes. Destruction of all four S-300 systems: Analysts state that the S-300 systems made in Russia are the most effective part of the integrated air defense system of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, November 7, that three S-300 systems were destroyed during Israel's attack on the Islamic Republic on the morning of Saturday, November 5. According to this report, the Israeli airstrikes on November 5 not only destroyed vital military infrastructure of the Iranian government but also shattered the credibility of Russian military equipment, which had previously been damaged due to their poor performance during the invasion of Ukraine. This American newspaper, citing Israeli and American officials, stated that the S-300 systems deployed in Iran may have managed to intercept only a few of the missiles fired from Israeli fighter jets at best. Meanwhile, in the attack attributed to Israel on April 20 against the Islamic Republic, another S-300 system was also destroyed. In this context, Fox News reported that the four S-300 air defense systems made in Russia that Israel has destroyed in its attacks on the Islamic Republic in Iran this year were the only such systems that the Iranian government had at the beginning of this year. Fox News quoted an unnamed senior Israeli official as saying, "Most of the Islamic Republic's air defense has been destroyed." The network also reported that Amos Hochstein, a senior Middle East advisor to President Joe Biden, stated in an internal call that "the Islamic Republic is practically defenseless" and vulnerable to future airstrikes. Messages and Consequences: A comprehensive and precise report on the extent of the damage caused by Israel's attacks on the Islamic Republic's positions on the morning of November 5 is not yet available. Ilan Berman, senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, told Voice of America that the reason for Israel's refusal to provide detailed information on this matter is that the Islamic Republic, by presenting its narrative of the attacks and the resulting damages to Iranian citizens, could be led to refrain from responding to these attacks. He pointed out that significant damage to proxy groups and missile production facilities, as two main pillars of the Islamic Republic's deterrence, could lead the Iranian government to take "more decisive and overt action" to acquire nuclear weapons. Fabian Hintz also described Israel's attacks as having a limited yet very important and effective scope. Farzin Nadimi believes that the conflict between the Islamic Republic and Israel is still in the signaling phase. He added that Israel, through its "limited but significantly effective attack," demonstrated that it can accurately target Islamic Republic objectives deep within Iranian territory using long-range air-launched ballistic missiles. Behnam Taleblu, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Voice of America that Israel's goal in attacking the Islamic Republic was to send a signal and disrupt missile production lines. He added that the Islamic Republic's current position is neither retreating nor expanding the conflict with Israel. According to Taleblu, Khamenei's current position, given his emphasis on the need to avoid underestimating or overestimating Israel's attacks, represents a "between two positions" stance. This senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies noted that the conflict between the Islamic Republic and Israel was previously a "shadow war," but given the direct attacks from both sides, the possibility of returning to a "shadow war" seems unlikely, and neither side appears to currently have such intentions. He stated that the upcoming U.S. elections could have a direct impact on how the two countries confront each other moving forward. In this context, Saeed Qasemi-Nejad, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Voice of America that Israel, in its attacks on the morning of November 5, did everything it could, considering the upcoming elections in the U.S. He stated that a broader operation could have influenced the election results, and the Israelis do not want such a perception to arise in either the Democratic or Republican parties. Qasemi-Nejad added that a potential attack on systems around economic infrastructures, especially in Khuzestan province, carried a very important message that if the Islamic Republic continues tensions, Iran's economic infrastructures could become targets of attack. He noted that by attacking the "economic chokepoints" of the Islamic Republic, Israel could cripple Iran's economy, and Iranian officials must understand this issue.