Richard Nephew's Recommendations to Donald Trump's Administration to Halt Iran's Nuclear Program

Richard Nephew, an American foreign policy expert known as the 'architect of sanctions' against the Islamic Republic, states that Donald Trump should give diplomacy with Iran one last chance while simultaneously preparing for military action. In an article published on January 3 in Foreign Affairs, Nephew writes, 'Given the risks of military action, the United States should make a final and sincere effort to negotiate to stop Tehran's nuclear program at the beginning of Trump's term.' Nephew also adds, 'Caution dictates that Washington should begin planning for military action now and ensure that Iran takes this threat seriously.' Nephew, who was previously a member of the U.S. negotiating team during Iran's nuclear talks with world powers, emphasizes that an attack that destroys the Natanz facility and other nuclear sites in Iran will not end the problem, 'just as the death of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020 and the attacks on Iran's centrifuge production facility in 2021 did not end the problem.' Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whom the Israeli Prime Minister mentioned two and a half years ago as the 'father of Iran's nuclear bomb,' was killed on December 7, 2020, in an attack on his car on the Abasrd road in the suburbs of Tehran. Nephew, who served as the director for Iran at the National Security Council during Barack Obama's presidency, writes in his article, 'The United States may have to continuously attack Iran to permanently suppress its nuclear ambitions or carry out a larger attack that eliminates elements of Iran's security forces or regime.' He then argues that if such attacks occur, it is hard to imagine that the Islamic Republic would quickly turn to diplomacy unless there is a change in the Iranian government. This senior researcher at Columbia University further adds that negotiations in 2021 and 2022 to restore the United States and Iran to full compliance with the JCPOA failed because Iran did not trust the United States and was concerned that if Republicans came to power in America, the new president would not adhere to the agreement. However, he added that 'if Trump himself agrees to a new deal, Iran may believe that this agreement will be sustainable.' During his recent election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized the need to return to the so-called 'maximum pressure' policy against the Islamic Republic and deemed the 2015 agreement between world powers and Iran insufficient due to its exclusion of missile programs and destabilizing activities in the Middle East. Nephew, who was a senior sanctions expert in negotiations with Iran from 2013 to 2014, states that if the United States uses the 'maximum pressure' approach to soften Iran in future negotiations, Iran may respond by hiding its nuclear materials, building a bomb, withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or any combination of the three. He wrote, 'If efforts to reach an agreement fail, the United States must be prepared to use military force.' According to Nephew, in this case, Iran must simultaneously focus on rebuilding its nuclear program, reconstituting Hezbollah, renewing its missile capabilities, and managing the country's economic problems while still under sanctions. Nephew states that the Iranian government 'must make real decisions about its strategic path. This country has lost all its major deterrent systems and methods and can no longer turn to nuclear weapons as a cheap and quick option to restore this deterrence.' He also wrote that in the event of U.S. attacks on Iran, the Islamic Republic may receive limited support among the Iranian people, and it is possible that depending on the intensity, targeting scope, and collateral damage of these attacks, the Iranian people may see it as an opportunity for regime change. Nephew concludes his article for Foreign Affairs by stating, 'The blows Iran has received from Israel, along with its ailing economy, may already be sufficient for this country to head down the nuclear path.' Following the killing of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, one of the senior commanders of the Quds Force in Syria, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones on April 14, and on September 2, in response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforushan, Zahedi's successor, in Lebanon, targeted Israel with 181 ballistic missiles. In response to these attacks, Israel carried out strikes on Iran on October 27, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims destroyed several military centers and also eliminated the Islamic Republic's defensive capabilities. In his article, Richard Nephew recommends that American policymakers should shift their calculations to the understanding that Iran's development of nuclear weapons is inevitable and must be managed, warning that there is a limited window to prevent reaching this point and that Washington should consider severe actions.