Rising Inflation in Iran; Fear of Economic Collapse and Suggestions for Wartime Measures

An economist referred to a report from the Iranian Statistical Center as indicative of "economic collapse," which will accelerate under "maximum pressure." Simultaneously, the government announced the return of ration cards, and a government-affiliated politician stated that actions should be taken like in the early years of the war. Reports from citizens within Iran indicate that the rising prices of essential goods and necessary services have seriously affected the lives of Iranians, and according to a psychologist, entering a phase of "absolute poverty" will lead society into "complete chaos." Siamak Javadi, an economist and financial researcher at the University of Texas, published a chart showing a 1.6% economic growth in the fall of 1403 in Iran on Thursday, March 9, stating on social media platform X: "Note that in this chart, blackouts were not as widespread as they are now. This chart reflects the situation during the Biden era." This economist emphasized that "this fall will undoubtedly accelerate with the current blackouts and maximum pressure, entering negative territory." On the other hand, Ahmad Midari, the Minister of Labor of the Islamic Republic, announced the beginning of a new phase of electronic ration cards, a modified version of the rationing system from the 1980s, stating that "the specified amount will be directly deposited into the accounts of beneficiaries." Additionally, Behzad Nabavi, the Minister of Heavy Industries during the Iran-Iraq war and a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, acknowledged that "the country's economic situation is worse than we can wait for three more years," stating, "We must start our actions like those at the beginning of the war. We need to have rationing of essential goods." This minister's reference to the policies includes the rationing of essential goods during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, where necessary items were distributed through coupons after hours of waiting in long lines in front of specific stores across the country. This reformist politician commented on the U.S. government's maximum pressure policy on the Iranian regime, saying: "We need to resolve the foreign policy issue in the short term, and we cannot immediately start eating faloudeh with Trump. We must proceed gradually." Behzad Nabavi suggested that the Islamic Republic "continue its communications with the Europeans" and "declare a ceasefire with the U.S. for now." Citizen reports indicate that on the eve of Nowruz, which is considered a season of market prosperity in Iran, "wholesalers are facing a customer crisis." A video report depicts a merchant stating that "the situation for wholesalers is extremely concerning," with "stores empty of customers" and "concerns about the future at their peak." The narrator in this report says: "We who waited a year for the New Year’s Eve, with rising prices and the dollar, have no way to continue. The fear of 1404 has cast a shadow over our hearts, and there are no signs of improvement on the horizon." The narrator also emphasizes that "silence equals the destruction of our business" and that "now is the time for protest," stating: "No sector is safe from this crisis. The New Year’s Eve, which should be a season of prosperity, has turned into a nightmare for merchants." Reports indicate that with the exit of the Saudi Arabian company Savola from the Iranian economy, which supplied a large portion of the market's oil, the issue of oil shortages has become serious since the beginning of winter, and in recent weeks, citizen reports have indicated a shortage of this essential commodity in the market. Reports also indicate that shortages of essential goods, including oil, have raised concerns ahead of Nowruz and Ramadan. Another citizen wrote on X about the severe price increase of cosmetic and hygiene products: "A few days ago, I bought a moisturizer, and now I see it has increased by about 500,000 tomans." Another user on X held the Islamic Republic officials responsible for the soaring dollar prices in the Iranian market, stating that in the two months following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, "the dollar price did not change, but in the five or six months of the Medicalian government, the dollar price has skyrocketed." Some users criticized the performance of Abdolnaser Hemmati, the Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance of the Islamic Republic, referring to the soaring dollar rate in recent weeks, giving him the nickname "Naser Navasan." Zeynab Esmaeili, a journalist, shared her personal account of the costs of treating a simple cold, stating, "Yesterday, with cough symptoms in my daughter, we went to the clinic," and "the cost of making an online appointment was 18,000 tomans, specialist consultation 350,000 tomans, medication 461,000 tomans, round trip 400,000 tomans." She emphasized: "How much income do we have that we must pay over one million tomans for treating a simple cold?" Mohammad Ghaderi, a psychiatrist in Iran, discussed the image of the Iranian economy and the impact of poverty on society in an interview with the Ekowebsite, stating: "The disaster that absolute poverty brings to a person is that they become so involved in basic needs that they fall into complete chaos and have no understanding of anxiety, depression, their environment, or the future." According to this psychologist, "this class cannot envision any future for itself." The spread of poverty and livelihood problems in Iran has led to consequences such as the continuous shrinking of household food baskets, the elimination of some consumables, and the emergence of physical illnesses and mental crises. In recent days, alongside disruptions in the insurance rights for special patients' medications, reports indicated that some patients, due to economic pressures, were forced to sell their vital medications. Continued livelihood protests; an economist: "You are witnessing an economic collapse." Strikes and gatherings of workers, nurses, and retirees in various regions of Iran. "Social Security" unable to pay; delays in bonuses. Strikes at Saipa; gatherings of nurses, retirees, and oil industry workers in Ahvaz. The Islamic Republic's indifference to teachers' problems; protests continue. The Iranian government is "active" in rebuilding Lebanon but unable to solve internal problems.