Rouhani's Economic Assistant on Public Protests: Continuing This Way Puts Us at Risk

Masoud Nili, economic assistant to Hassan Rouhani, has warned about the possibility of a "repetition and expansion" of the protests that occurred in December in Iran, stating that the current priority for the country is to "revive hope and social capital" and that continuing economic reforms without gaining the trust of the people is "dangerous." Nili made these remarks on Wednesday, March 14, in an interview with the state newspaper Iran, analyzing the economic reasons behind the street protests that took place in nearly 100 cities across Iran. He stated that these "demonstrations... are a warning that protests may become larger and more widespread, and... next time, the opportunity may not be available to you." The economic assistant to Hassan Rouhani also warned that "if we continue like this and proceed in the same manner, we will be at risk." Nili's reference to the December protests in nearly 100 cities in Iran began with the slogan "No to Price Hikes" in the city of Mashhad and quickly spread to other cities, questioning the political and cultural performance of the government and the state. These protests, which led to clashes between security and military forces and protesters in some cities, resulted in at least 25 deaths. Thousands were also arrested during these protests, with judicial officials confirming that at least three of them died in custody, with authorities attributing their deaths to "suicide." Before Nili, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the Minister of Interior, had also stated regarding the nationwide protests in December that the factors of dissatisfaction have not yet been eliminated and that "a spark is enough to ignite it." Since the December protests, Iran has continuously witnessed labor and student protests, as well as gatherings from other sectors, with many women and girls protesting against mandatory hijab, facing state repression. Nili's analysis of the economic situation of the people indicates that in Iran, "everyone is against each other. Today the country is like a sick person in a bad state in a hospital, but the relatives are fighting among themselves and the doctors are also in conflict." This economist has warned that "in the absence of social capital, undertaking economic reforms is dangerous. Before any economic reform, social capital must be enhanced to take further steps." Nili emphasized that "if the third aspect of trust in officials is undermined, pursuing the other two aspects {i.e., economic reforms and solving welfare problems} is costly and dangerous under the current circumstances." The economic advisor to Rouhani explained that "if people trust that with the increase in fuel prices, the transportation fleet will be modernized, they will show cooperation, provided that they are assured that the created resources will be spent correctly; in this regard, there should be a roadmap, and we should not shock them all of a sudden." Nili, examining the welfare conditions of Iranian households over a relatively long period from the beginning of the Iran-Iraq war until 1392 (2013), concluded that from 1374 to 1384 (1995-2005) without any government advertising, "on average, the level of household welfare... doubled, and the living conditions of people saw a relatively appropriate improvement." However, he stated that in 1384 (2005) coinciding with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's rise to the presidency in Iran, statements indicating that "the low-income class of society has been harmed and its conditions must improve... created excitement in society." Nili added that despite the increase in the country's resources, "not only was there no improvement in people's lives, but the previous trend was completely halted." Another event during this period, according to Rouhani's assistant, was the payment of cash subsidies in 1389 (2010), which "increased people's purchasing power but was immediately neutralized by the deep and unprecedented stagflation of 1391-1392 (2012-2013)." He continued that following Rouhani's presidency, although "improvements... occurred in the economic conditions of the country in the following years, they were only to compensate for part of the damage caused by the stagflation of 1391-1392 (2012-2013). The indicators show improvement, but we have not yet reached the previous point." According to him, although "statistics do not indicate that people's conditions have worsened compared to 1392 (2013), {however} the point is that in 1384 (2005), expectations were created and recognized in society that were not fulfilled; and this caused the attitude of the people, especially the low-income class, to become very negative and angry due to the unmet demands during the years 1384 to 1388 (2005-2009)." Nili added that "the same situation occurred in 1392 (2013) regarding the JCPOA for the middle class... {this class} was waiting for an interaction with the world that would bring about a major change in their lives. This demand created expectations far beyond the actual capacity of the JCPOA in society." This economist concluded that the "compressed" demands of the low-income class and the middle class have created a situation where society currently faces two classes with "serious unmet needs."