Russia, a Long-Term and Strategic Partner for Iran?

Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, will participate in the third summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran on Monday. This summit is taking place at a time when media attention is increasingly focused on the relations between Russia and Iran, especially as it appears that Moscow and Tehran have increased their military presence or military assistance to the government of Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria. This policy has drawn criticism from the United States and several other countries in the region and the world. In this context, the Kremlin's statement regarding Mr. Putin's visit to Tehran, mentioning the discussion of Syria and military cooperation alongside economic and energy dialogues with Iranian officials, indicates Russia's efforts to maintain or expand its relations with Iran. The Kremlin's description of Iran as a country with a strategic partnership with Russia may confirm this effort. However, it should not be forgotten that Vladimir Putin used such a description of Iran at least once during the visit of Mohammad Khatami, the former President of Iran, to Moscow. In the following years, Russia's delays in completing the Bushehr nuclear power plant—which had drawn severe Western objections—and its cooperation in the adoption of UN Security Council sanctions against Tehran led to significant criticism in Iran. These criticisms also targeted Russia's refusal to deliver the S-300 missile system, which Moscow described as compliance with UN Security Council resolutions against Iran. However, it seems that Moscow, considering the prospect of Iran's rapprochement with the West in pursuit of lifting sanctions, is seeking to maintain its position in Tehran. It should also be noted that the Syrian crisis is another reason for this Russian policy. Since Vladimir Putin's presidency began in 2000, alongside Moscow and Tehran's relations, it may be better to review Russia's foreign policy, which is a function of the country's president. In recent weeks, Russia has conducted extensive air and missile operations against Bashar al-Assad's opponents, marking the first large-scale foreign military operation beyond the geographical borders of the former Soviet Union. In this regard, the former Soviet Union had previously conducted military operations concerning some of its neighbors, such as Iran, North Korea, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Afghanistan. Moscow has previously shown its intention to adopt a more active, even aggressive, diplomacy by supporting separatists in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's government’s indifference to opposition and criticism, as well as sanctions from the US and the EU, can also be interpreted in this light; especially since Crimea was annexed to Russia despite widespread protests through a controversial referendum. Many countries condemned this referendum as illegitimate, and the UN Security Council deemed it illegal by a majority vote. However, could not the Russian president's diplomacy have been predictable for Western countries? Mr. Putin's positions since he held the premiership in Russia indicated that, unlike his predecessor Boris Yeltsin, he thinks and acts differently. Vladimir Putin's special interest in Peter the Great, Charles de Gaulle, and Konrad Adenauer—leaders who rebuilt their countries and turned them into great powers—could be seen as the first sign of his perception of his role in Russia. Meanwhile, some experts consider the policies of the Russian president, in what they call the suppression of opposition and the role in the disintegration of Georgia and Ukraine, as policies that do not serve the interests of the Russian people. This group of experts points to reports from human rights organizations regarding human rights violations by Putin. In this context, Vladimir Putin's severe response to Islamist separatists in Chechnya and the restoration of the hegemony of the central government was his first practical step during his premiership to strengthen the power of the central government, which led to his popularity in Russia. This action was significant because prior to that, there was a widespread centrifugal tendency among the republics and regions of Russia. A prominent example of this was seen in Chechnya, or Tatarstan, which managed to become an autonomous republic with extensive powers. This was while Boris Yeltsin's government was unable to suppress the centrifugal tendencies of the republics and regions. Meanwhile, after beginning his presidency, Vladimir Putin sought to continue the Eastward Look diplomacy designed by former Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov. Strengthening relations with China was a hallmark of this diplomacy during Vladimir Putin's tenure. Simultaneously, Moscow attempted to expand its relations with Iran and several countries. Alongside this diplomacy, public opinion in Russia was an important factor. The nationalist sentiments of Russians were wounded after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia was no longer considered a superpower or even a regional power. In this context, Vladimir Putin has somewhat managed to fulfill some of the demands of a significant percentage of public opinion in Russia (establishing a strong government, countering separatist tendencies, and relatively improving economic conditions compared to Boris Yeltsin's era) both inside and outside the country. Although in recent years there have been large protests against him, these oppositions have not been such that they could oust Vladimir Putin or force him out of the political scene in Russia. Currently, there is also no sign of those widespread protests. Now, Russia's military operations in Syria have provided Vladimir Putin with an opportunity to not only heal the wounds of Russian society but also to showcase the military power of his country to the US, the EU, and the countries of the Middle East. This operation, in turn, sends the message to the Russian people that their country is a global power that everyone must consider in their political calculations. It can also be noted that Vladimir Putin seeks to respond to Western policies in Ukraine while maintaining his only Arab ally. "Russia, a long-term and strategic partner for Iran" Reports regarding the alliance of Russia, Iran, and Syria, if true or realized, could significantly enhance Moscow's power play and maneuvering in the Middle East. From this perspective, Vladimir Putin's negotiations on the sidelines of the gas summit in Tehran can be examined. But will the aggressive policies of recent years work in favor of the Russian president? And can he present himself to his people like Peter the Great? The answers to these questions depend on multiple factors and actors in the Syrian crisis and their actions, including how far Iran—while simultaneously reducing tensions with the West—will enhance its activities in the Middle East alongside Russia. This is an important question for the Russians because currently, Moscow does not have a powerful partner, collaborator, or ally in the Middle East like Iran, and at the same time, its support for Bashar al-Assad has put Russia at odds with significant regional countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Meanwhile, the emphasis of some Iranian officials, including Bijan Zanganeh, the Minister of Oil, who told the Russian Energy Minister on Monday, "Russia is a long-term and strategic partner for Iran in all eras," could be seen as positive signs for Moscow. Although some experts believe that Iran's cooperation with Russia is tactical and that Tehran will improve its relations with the West if sanctions are lifted. This group of experts points to the dialogues of Iranian officials with their Western counterparts. On the other hand, the positions of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, in foreign policy and his continued attacks on the US could be considered a reassuring point for Moscow.