Russia and the Delivery of S-300 to Iran; A First Step for Building Trust

It seems that Mohammad Javad Zarif's recent trip to Moscow has put an end to the long-standing issue of the S-300 system. As Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, told the RIA Novosti news agency, Moscow and Tehran have agreed on the delivery of the S-300 air defense system, and only technical details are under review, thus this matter should be considered concluded. A high-level delegation from Iran is scheduled to visit Moscow next week to attend the MAKS 2015 air show, and it is highly likely that the S-300 system will be on their agenda. According to Sputnik news agency, the S-300 contract will be signed on August 25, and the system will be delivered to Iran 30 to 40 days after that. In this context, Brigadier General Dehghan, Iran's Minister of Defense, stated on August 17 at a press conference ahead of Defense Industry Day on August 22, that Iran and Russia have agreed on the S-300 system and that they will receive an updated model of this system with modifications that the Russians will implement, adding, "Next week our friends will go to Russia to sign the contract." The Iranian Defense Minister further emphasized, "This contract will have its own timeline and will be implemented and operational from the day of signing. The Russians have completed the work related to subsystems and assembly, and we will receive this system in the shortest time... Until now, we had requested three battalions of S-300, and one more has been added, and the price has also gone up." The Russian news agency Interfax, citing a source familiar with the contract, stated that the value of the four battalions of S-300 requested by Iran has been set at 900 million dollars. In other words, 100 million dollars more than the contract Iran signed with Russia eight years ago in 2007. According to this source, Russia will deliver the "S-300 V-4" or "Antey 2500" (NATO designation S-23) to Iran instead of the "S-300 PMU-1," which is no longer produced, as it has better capabilities. This system, which is the latest model of the Antey-2500 system, became operational in 2013 and has a missile range of 400 kilometers. The Russian government's decision to quickly deliver this system to Iran, aside from Moscow's efforts to revive military relations with Tehran, is also a symbolic political act by Vladimir Putin against the United States, and it downplays the heated discussions in the U.S. Congress regarding the acceptance or rejection of the comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran, the outcome of which is expected to be clear by late September. According to the Russian president, Iran has joined the global community following the comprehensive nuclear agreement, and returning to the previous sanctions era is unjustifiable, though one cannot overlook the strategic competition and Russia's struggle with the U.S. and the West in general—competition rooted in NATO's expansion into Eastern European countries, the deployment of the European missile defense system, the war in Ukraine, and economic sanctions against Russia. Based on the comprehensive nuclear agreement, arms and missile sanctions against Iran will remain in place for five and eight years, respectively, but Russia does not consider the S-300, which is purely a defensive system, subject to sanctions, while the U.S. opposes the delivery of this system to Iran. In this regard, John Kirby, the spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, told Fox News that the nature of the S-300 system is defensive and that United Nations sanctions or the comprehensive nuclear agreement do not cover it, but the U.S. opposes the sale of this system to Iran. Meetings between Iranian and Russian political and military officials in recent months, including the visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Tehran last January and the signing of a military cooperation agreement between the two countries, indicate that Moscow is eager to eliminate the prevailing distrust in bilateral relations and strengthen its strategic ties with Iran. The expansion of military relations between Iran and European countries is largely tied to the implementation of the comprehensive nuclear agreement, but it seems that Iran is currently unwilling to expand relations with these countries. In this regard, the Iranian Defense Minister stated at the August 17 press conference, "In the fighter jet sector, we have communicated our needs to the Russians and have not spoken to any other country, nor have we made any requests in this area from France, and I doubt that we will have military cooperation with this country under these circumstances." Despite this reluctance, it seems unlikely that even with the lifting of sanctions, European countries will be willing to sell advanced weapons to Iran for a long time, and in this regard, Russia will be the primary and then China will be the most important exporters of weapons and military technology to Iran. According to the state newspaper China Daily, Iran has signed a contract with China to purchase 24 Chengdu J-10 fighter jets. American and Israeli analysts have repeatedly stated that the delivery of the S-300 system to Iran will upset the strategic balance in the Middle East, as it will make penetrating Iranian airspace more difficult and increase the costs of potential attacks. Russia's assistance to Iran, aimed at disrupting the strategic balance in the region, will allow Iran to play a more prominent role in the Middle East, a region where Moscow and Tehran have strategic common interests. The Russian Foreign Ministry, ahead of Zarif's recent trip to Moscow, issued a statement indicating that political dialogue between Iran and Russia has recently become more fruitful, describing Iran as "one of Russia's closest regional partners" and adding that "deep mutual understanding and extensive practical cooperation" are characteristics of the two countries' relations. Besides Syria and Iraq, Iran and Russia also share strategic common interests in Afghanistan, the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Caspian Sea, which was emphasized in the statement. At the end of his trip to Moscow, Mohammad Javad Zarif spoke at a joint press conference with Sergei Lavrov about the positions and common interests of the two countries in the Middle East and emphasized that the issues in Syria should be resolved politically by the people of that country without foreign powers' prescriptions. In this regard, Sergei Lavrov stated that it is unacceptable for foreign governments to demand Assad's resignation for the opposition to come to power. In conclusion, Russia's decision to send the new generation of the S-300 system to Iran and to develop cooperation in military and political fields indicates a new equation in the region that has emerged after the nuclear agreement. Russia wants to be the first country in the world to take immediate and practical action regarding the lifting of sanctions on Iran and is eager to enter into security, economic, and energy equations with Iran. Given the U.S. policy in the Middle East, Russia seeks to play a more active role in the region and supports the axis led by Iran, namely Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, while calling for non-interference by Arab countries against the Houthis. However, this Russian approach has a dual nature, meaning that on one hand, it supports the "resistance axis," while on the other hand, it seeks to establish closer relations with Sunni countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan, while maintaining a complex position regarding Israel. A clear example of this duality is in relation to Syria and Bashar Assad's position. While Lavrov insists on Assad remaining in the Syrian political scene, his Saudi counterpart, Adel al-Jubeir, emphasizes that Assad should have no role in Syria's future. The delivery of the S-300 system by Russia, given its tumultuous background with Iran, provides a basis for reviving bilateral relations and should be seen as a positive step for building trust, but its dual approach in the Middle East necessitates caution in assessments and raises questions about its continued support for the "resistance axis."