Russia, Sanctions, and Record Air Accidents in 2024

The number of air accidents in Russia in 2024 has surpassed last year's record. Experts believe this situation is due to the inability of Russian airlines to conduct timely repairs on passenger aircraft following the imposition of Western sanctions. Russian-made aircraft are also facing issues. Reports indicate that just in the past week, three 'Superjet 100' planes have been grounded due to technical faults. The record of air incidents in Russia has been noted by the newspaper 'Novaya Gazeta', which, relying on official reports, estimated that in 2023, technical defects in passenger aircraft in Russia were reported over 150 times, showing a 188% increase compared to 2022. According to the same report, in 2024, with one month left until the end of the year, 208 cases of technical defects in passenger aircraft have been reported, marking a 30% increase compared to the previous year and over 200% compared to two years ago, the year when Boeing and Airbus ceased support for passenger aircraft in Russia due to Western sanctions. This estimate only includes cases that occurred for passenger aircraft after takeoff and during flight or landing. It is reported that this year, passenger aircraft in Russia have had to return to the airport at least 90 times or have made emergency landings due to technical defects during flight. In 30% of all these cases, the issue was with the engine, 25% with the chassis, 20% with the brakes, 10% with the ventilation system, 5% with windshield cracks, 5% with wing flaps, and other issues due to various defects. The report adds that the technical defects preventing passenger aircraft from flying are far more numerous. The American publication 'Newsweek' has also counted over 180 technical violations of passenger aircraft in Russia in 2023 and over 200 in 2024. It is said that between 2018 and 2022 (the four years prior to the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions against Russia), the average technical defect in passenger aircraft was 55 cases per year. In other words, last year the number of technical defects was three times higher, and this year it has been more than four times compared to the years before the war. ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) marked Russia with a 'red flag' in the fall of 2023 due to the insecurity of passenger flights. In this list, only three other countries are registered besides Russia: Liberia, Bhutan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the imposition of Western sanctions, the Federal Air Transport Agency allowed Russian airlines to assess the technical condition of their existing aircraft and conduct repairs if necessary. Multiple reports support that several aircraft have been grounded to source spare parts for the repair of other aircraft. Recently, consultants from the New York-based company 'Oliver Wyman' predicted that if Western companies do not resume the sale of parts or support for aircraft sold to Russia, within two years, the number of Western passenger aircraft in Russia will decrease from 736, which existed before the war, to half by the end of next year, and will continue to decrease by 20% annually thereafter. On the other hand, by order of Vladimir Putin, at least half of the fleet of Russian airlines must consist of domestically produced aircraft by 2030. To achieve this goal, 120 passenger aircraft must be produced in Russia next year, and this capacity must be increased annually to reach the production of over 230 passenger aircraft by 2030. This directive to produce over 1000 passenger aircraft has been issued at a time when, on average, 40 to 50 passenger aircraft have been produced annually in Russia over the past 50 years. On Monday, December 3, a 'Superjet 100' belonging to the Russian airline 'Azimut', which had taken off from Sochi to the resort of Mineralnye Vody, had to return to the origin 45 minutes after takeoff 'due to a technical fault'. Some media reported that the fuel filter fault sensor on this aircraft had been activated. Exactly a week earlier, a hydraulic system issue forced another 'Superjet 100' to make an emergency landing in Krasnoyarsk, and a day before that, another 'Superjet 100' caught fire after landing in Antalya, Turkey, but there were no casualties. According to the 'Agnestoo' news agency, over the past three years, various technical violations have been recorded in this aircraft more than 15 times. In previous years, Russia had made considerable efforts to sell the 'Superjet 100' to Iran. Some reports indicate that the entire plan was initiated with the aim of having Iranian airlines use Russian-produced aircraft under Western sanctions. This initiative ultimately failed because 22% of the 'Superjet' parts were produced in the USA, and Washington did not allow Moscow to deliver these aircraft to Tehran. After the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions against Moscow, the situation has completely transformed, and Russia announced last spring that it sought Iran's assistance to support its passenger fleet. A memorandum of 'aircraft manufacturing and repair and increasing direct flights' was signed between the two countries, and an Airbus from 'Aeroflot' and then a Bombardier belonging to Tatarstan Airlines were sent to Iran for repair. At the same time, reports emerged that the French engine of the 'Superjet' had also been sent to Tehran for reverse engineering. After multiple reports of Iran's repeated delays in sending repaired aircraft back to Russia, this cooperation appears to have been halted.