Russia's Entry into the Syrian War: Reasons and Possible Consequences (2)

In the previous section, the ineffectiveness of the Syrian government forces and their repeated retreats against rebel groups, the collapse of the Syrian economy, the disruption of the social fabric of the country, and the extent of Russian military presence were examined. This section discusses the advances of rebel groups, the coordination between Iran and Russia to assist Assad, the potential confrontation between the US and Russia in Syrian airspace, Russia's political and strategic objectives, and finally, signs of a shift in the US position regarding Assad and the possibility of a clearer horizon for resolving the Syrian crisis. The advances of rebel groups have been noted by some Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, who in recent interviews justified the expansion of Russia's military presence in Syria by stating that this presence has a long history and that Russian military personnel are training their Syrian counterparts to use Russian equipment. In this context, on Thursday, September 17, the Russian government announced that its military support for Bashar Assad's government is aimed at fighting terrorism, protecting Syria's independence, and preventing a 'full-scale disaster' in the region. Despite these justifications, the reality is that despite previous assistance from Russia and Iran to Syria, opposition rebel groups have advanced towards the west of the country, especially towards Latakia, leaving little room for further retreat by Assad. A tactical retreat of Assad's forces from Latakia, similar to what previously occurred in Hasakah, Quneitra, and parts of Daraa, Aleppo, and Idlib, would equate to the fall of Assad's regime. Latakia is considered the heart of the Syrian Alawite community and a stronghold of Assad's supporters, and access for rebel groups to it would lead to the fall of Tartus and the remaining coastal areas of Syria. Tartus, after Latakia, is the second-largest port in Syria and the center of Tartus province. The Russian Navy has established a base in this port, which holds significant strategic importance for Russia in the Mediterranean Sea. The appearance of modern Russian armored personnel carriers of the 'BTR-82A' type in Latakia and its surrounding areas, along with the deployment of Russian commandos to Syria, reflects Moscow's concerns, and if necessary, direct and practical involvement of Russian soldiers in operations against rebel groups is not out of the question. Coordination between Iran and Russia? According to some media reports, Russia's decision to strengthen its military presence in Syria has been coordinated with Iran, and Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, has traveled to Russia in this regard. In this context, Mojtaba Zolnoor, an advisor to the representative of the Supreme Leader in the IRGC, recently denied this claim, stating that Soleimani's cooperation with Russia for the deployment of 1,000 Russian soldiers to Syria is 'utterly false' and that if Soleimani were willing to have a military presence in Syria, he could provide thousands of forces without needing Russian soldiers. Meanwhile, the newspaper As-Safir, close to Hezbollah, reported on Tuesday, September 15, that Qassem Soleimani 'in line with the efforts of Russia and Iran for joint cooperation in Syria' traveled to Moscow for the second time in a month. Three days after this news, Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei, emphasized the coordination between Iran and Russia in Syria, stating that the two countries, along with Hezbollah, are providing 'military advice' to the Syrian government, a point that Bashar Assad also referred to in a recent interview, expressing gratitude for the support from Iran and Hezbollah. Potential confrontation between Russia and the US in Syria The simultaneous military presence of Russia and the US in Syria, especially in Syrian airspace, could be dangerous and lead to clashes between American and Russian aircraft. Therefore, establishing a process to prevent or reduce the risk of unintended aerial confrontations between coalition aircraft and Russia, which is currently a challenging process for coalition aircraft, will add complexity to air operations in Syria. Although most US and coalition air operations occur in areas far from the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, where Russian troops are stationed, the expansion of Russian military presence to the east and north will lead to overlapping operational areas for the US and Russia, increasing the likelihood of unintended confrontations. Russia has already raised the possibility of such confrontations and has asked the US to have military personnel from both countries sit down for discussions so that, considering the risks arising from the simultaneous military presence of both countries in Syria, there is a clear understanding of each other's paths and objectives. The presence of Russian aircraft in Syrian skies will complicate and confuse coalition air operations. The Syrian battlefield is very complex, and in many cases, ISIS, various rebel groups, and Assad's forces are simultaneously present. In such an environment, Russian military personnel or aircraft may target groups supported by the US while supporting Assad's forces. The likelihood of such an event is higher in the provinces of Damascus in northern Syria and Daraa in the south, where US-backed groups operate. The Islamic State group, or ISIS, is the main target of the US, and Russia also ostensibly prescribes military operations against this group, even emphasizing the need for a broad coalition to fight ISIS in recent days. However, ISIS, which has seized eastern and central Syria, is not a major threat to Assad's regime. This regime perceives the main and immediate threat from rebel groups operating in the west of the country, especially in northern Latakia, Idlib, Hama, and southern Damascus. Therefore, currently, fighting ISIS is not a priority for Assad, and Russia has entered the field to strengthen and sustain Assad's regime, not to fight against ISIS. Russia's objectives, the US, and possible consequences The intensification of Russia's military presence in Syria is a strategic and deliberate step by Moscow to support Assad, who has seen a decline in the effectiveness of his forces and their failures in recent months, and considering the insufficiency of assistance from Iran and Hezbollah. Despite contradictory statements from Russian and Iranian officials, Moscow has taken this step in coordination and consultation with Iran, which has recently increased its assistance to Syria. Vladimir Putin intends to assist Bashar Assad's regime through various means and to render ineffective the buffer zone that the US and Turkey want to establish in Syria, while introducing Russia as a fresh force into the Syrian civil war. By doing so, Vladimir Putin hopes to limit US military options in Syria. The strengthening of Russia's military presence in Syria could transform the current situation on the ground in the Syrian civil war and may even turn the tide. This presence could prevent a sudden fall of Assad and may even ensure his survival for a period, but this Russian intervention could also pose serious challenges for Moscow. Nevertheless, statements from Russian officials indicate that Moscow is aware of these potential problems and has accepted the risks of its military presence, one of which could be the further radicalization of opposition rebel groups. These groups may engage against Russian forces and inflict damage on them, but it is unlikely that they could defeat Russia in a serious and widespread confrontation. Rebel groups lack the discipline, cohesion, and sufficient firepower. It is not clear how far Russia will go in its assistance to Assad's regime, but it has already taken significant military steps. Given the weapons, equipment, and personnel Russia has deployed in Syria, the mission of Russian forces likely includes: air defense and protection of western Syria and the forces stationed in this area with defensive systems and fighter jets; protection of the Russian naval base in Tartus; assistance to the Syrian air force; close air support for Syrian forces' operations; and providing training to Syrian military personnel. However, the deployment of Russian tanks and fighter jets in Syria indicates that Russia may participate in some offensive operations against rebels. A lose-lose game The incoherent strategy of the US and other coalition countries in Syria and Iraq, coupled with the increasing power of ISIS in these countries, has created a favorable position for Russia to make a bold move into the Syrian civil war and pursue its objectives in the country by expanding its military presence. As previously mentioned, currently, Russian assistance to Syria is limited, but if Russia further strengthens its military presence and increases the number of its soldiers in Syria, transforming it into a powerful and significant fighting force, coalition countries will not be able to stop it. Any practical action by coalition countries will carry the risk of military confrontation with Russia. By strengthening its military presence in Syria, Russia has placed the US and other coalition countries in a passive position, and the recent positions and actions of these countries towards Russia indicate that the US and European countries are reluctant to engage in military conflict with Russia, preferring diplomatic protests, sanctions, or similar actions through the United Nations. Nevertheless, in the long run, Russia's military presence in Syria could be a lose-lose game for both Russia and the US and other coalition countries. This presence, on the one hand, weakens and even thwarts the military pressure of coalition countries on Assad's regime and, on the other hand, by bolstering Assad's confidence and self-assurance, dries up his willingness to resolve the Syrian crisis through political means and reach an agreement with rebel groups. Concurrently, Russia will also be forced to bear the burden of a weak ally with insatiable needs, namely Assad's regime, and may alienate some regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. A tendency towards a political solution? Therefore, the perspective of coalition countries, especially the US, for resolving the Syrian crisis has been moderated by military pressures and has proposed political dialogue and military coordination with Russia and cooperation with this country and even Iran to end the civil war in Syria through political means. The 50-minute phone conversation between US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoygu, along with statements made by US Secretary of State John Kerry on Saturday, September 19, at a joint press conference with his British counterpart in London, are signs of this new approach. In the mentioned press conference, John Kerry invited all parties involved in the Syrian civil war to reach a political solution, asking Iran and Russia to use their influence to bring Bashar Assad to the negotiating table, and that Assad's departure from power could be postponed until the end of the civil war, with the timing of the power transition to be determined in the negotiations. We must wait and see if Iran and Russia will respond positively to this request from the US.