S-300 and Russia's Range-Range Strategy in Iran

When Iran signed the contract with Russia to complete the Bushehr nuclear reactor in 1995, it never imagined the troubles it would face. From 1995 until today, the Russians have been working on this reactor. The German company Siemens began constructing this reactor before the revolution, but after the revolution, in line with its anti-Western policies and opposition to modern technologies, the Islamic Republic of Iran deemed it a 'clear betrayal of our people' and shut it down. During the war with Iraq, Saddam Hussein bombed the reactor four times. However, the Russians were always ready to repair the damages, convert German technology to Russian, and deliver it to Iran in a neat package. They did not demand much money – only $800 million. In a situation where Iran had turned to over twenty nuclear countries to accomplish this task, the Russian offer was not only generous but also strategically significant as it transformed Iran from a nuclear consumer country to a producer equipped with nuclear technology! Today, when we look at the total costs of diplomatic travels and peripheral expenses over the 10-12 years to resolve the nuclear dispute between Iran and the West, it is on par with what the Russians demanded for the repair and operation of the power plant. From Russia's perspective, however, the situation was different. With concerns about NATO's expansion towards its borders, entering into this nuclear deal allowed Russia to secure a new consumer market in a territory it had been interested in since the Tsarist era and throughout the 75 years of Soviet rule, considering it the best way to access the warm waters of the Persian Gulf and control the region's economic and strategic flow. Soon, hundreds of Russian experts were sent to Iran, and several times that number of Iranian trainees were sent to Russia. This exchange also opened the door for ordinary students and state-sponsored Iranian scholarship students to Russia and Ukraine, so much so that the largest number of Iranian students still reside in Russia and Ukraine, primarily interested in studying expensive medical and dental fields. Thus, after the 1979 revolution, the second significant event in Iran-Russia relations was marked by this contract. The first dates back more than two decades and began with the visit of Eduard Shevardnadze, Gorbachev's foreign minister, to Tehran. Towards the end of the Iran-Iraq war, Shevardnadze met with Ayatollah Khomeini in Tehran and engaged in discussions. At that time, Iraq's alliance with Soviet Russia no longer benefited Russia, as Iraq had turned towards the West during the war with Iran. However, Shevardnadze's negotiations with Iran led to Russian assistance towards Iran. Of course, Russia was also favored by this assistance, and immediately after the meeting, the slogan 'Death to the Soviet Union' was halted by the order of the central Friday prayer headquarters, with only the United States and Israel receiving special attention from the Friday prayer leaders. Soviet flags were gradually removed from the streets by demonstrators, and only the American flags were repainted. Thus, Russia was assured that Iran's leaders did not wish for its demise and, in addition, sought the destruction of its rival, the United States. This motivation was enough for Russia to export everything from decommissioned submarines to scrap Tupolev aircraft to Iran. After the war ended, Russian Tupolevs carried more passengers than the aircraft carrier Vincent, yet no one raised their voice in protest. Gradually, Russia became an economic and political partner that could even be counted on for its veto power in the Security Council. After 1995, it took several years for the reactor contract to be implemented. If we were to use sweet Persian proverbs, over these twenty years, the Russians repeatedly brought Iran to the edge of the spring and sent it back thirsty. Even during Dmitry Medvedev's time, who briefly held power between two terms of Putin, Russia and the United States drew closer and had verbal agreements against Iran. The operation of the Bushehr reactor, alongside all these events, progressed at a snail's pace, and we were supposed to wait until we could make halva from sour grapes. However, the sale of the S-300 missile system, negotiations for which began 12 years ago (2003), was another green light, with even the down payment made and the contract signed. In the meantime, as a reward, Iran had achieved observer membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and several joint ivory towers with Russia and Ahmadinejad, but the Russians, having managed to keep NATO's missile defense program at bay, saw no necessity to upset their European, Israeli, and American friends by selling the S-300 missile system and decided to withhold its delivery to Iran. This decision led to Iran's complaint and a demand for $4 billion in damages. Twelve years later, suddenly a week or two ago, after Iran's agreement with the 1+5, in which the Russians were also a party, they realized that if the agreement turned into a deal and was implemented, Iran's markets might be 'contaminated' with a plethora of Western products, diminishing Russia's foothold there. The Russians understood that under the conditions of American sanctions and Israeli pressure, they could not deliver this missile system, but now with the easing of sanctions, the situation had changed. The S-300 missile system is a type of long-range surface-to-air system that can counter many modern aircraft and cruise, ballistic, tactical, and short-range offensive missiles, and at one time was considered part of NATO's anti-weaponry, with its strategic importance being so high that the Russians themselves dubbed it 'NATO's nightmare.' Now, following the visit of Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, to Moscow, on Monday, April 13, it was suddenly announced that based on Putin's order, the delivery and transport of this system to Iran would no longer have land, air, or sea prohibitions. Of course, this decree does not indicate a lifting of sanctions but is a clear reason that Moscow no longer cares about those sanctions and has reinterpreted them. This occurs while the leaders of the 1+5 believe that until the agreement with Iran is operationalized and a final agreement is reached, the structure of sanctions should not be altered. Here, the reciprocal actions of two different interests from the perspectives of Iran and Russia have led to Russia's action being welcomed by Iran, as it effectively lifts the sanctions and opens the way for similar actions by other countries like China, Japan, and India. From Russia's perspective, enough discussions have taken place regarding Iran's nuclear file, and now it is time for action. The implementation of the missile system's delivery to Iran may take until the end of the year, and therefore Russia remains loyal to the spirit and framework of the agreement, but with this preemptive announcement, it manages to keep Iran enchanted by its promises and retains Iran as its economic market while seizing Iranian oil as a backing for transactions. In addition to the international law discussions mentioned above, from a strategic viewpoint, Mr. Shamkhani's statements that this event creates new conditions for Iran's 'stabilizing policies' in the region have their supporters and opponents. The discussion of the strategic impacts of this anti-missile system and whether a defensive system can also act offensively is an important debate that arises against Iran's claims, and unfortunately, the volume of this article does not allow for its entry. Without delving into how far Iran's policies contribute to regional stability or not, Russia's intentions behind lifting the ban on the delivery of the S-300 missile system can be summarized as follows: A - Has Russia taken a step towards the practical lifting of anti-Iran sanctions? The clear answer is that Mr. Putin's statement does not refer to sanctions and is merely a form of exercising sovereignty over the use of Russian land and air for transporting this shipment, which, if not delivered, would require about $4 billion in compensation to Iran. Therefore, Russia is ostensibly acting to respect the contract concluded with Iran, and Iran believes that it will not abandon its complaint until this system is delivered. B - What are the results of delivering this missile system to Iran? Immediately after the announcement of the removal of obstacles and the possibility of delivering this missile system to Iran, both Israel and the United States protested against it, with Israel even considering it a result of lifted sanctions and another sign of Iran's military empowerment in the region, which, according to Benjamin Netanyahu, challenges the security of the region and Israel. Naturally, with such a defensive system, threats from Israel and some hardline Republicans in the U.S. Congress to bomb Iran's nuclear sites will become hollow. However, this defensive capability does not come free and increasingly ties Iran to Russia. C - What are the real impacts and behind-the-scenes calculations of Russia? - If this system is delivered to Iran, Russia will not have to pay the claimed $4 billion in damages to Iran, even though no legal ruling has been issued yet. Additionally, it will receive $800 million for this system (which happens to be equal to the amount Iran paid to Russia for the reconstruction of the nuclear reactor). - Iran-Russia relations as a permanent customer will be maintained and strengthened, and Russia can count on Iran as a long-term arms customer. The question arises whether the missile system, like the nuclear reactor, requires more training and military expertise or if just a driver from the IRGC can operate it by pressing a button. - Apparently under pressure from Israel and the United States, Iran is increasingly leaning towards Russia and purchasing Russian weapons, the details of which were signed during the Russian Defense Minister's visit to Iran last January. The details of this agreement have not been disclosed, but Russian media speak of the daily export of 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil to Russia in exchange for equipment and Russian goods. Naturally, the implication is that the equipment refers to weaponry. Additionally, in the past, Iran has imported grains from Russia, but it seems that this time the volume of exchanges includes a wide range of goods. - U.S. congressional Republicans view this action by Iran as a step towards disrupting peace and regional stability, considering the presence of the S-300 missile system in Iran a direct threat to their allies such as Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab countries, and Israel, and they will increase pressure on Iran in Congress. This very fact will further push Iran closer to Russia. - It even strengthens the possibility that Republicans could gain an absolute majority in legislation and prevent the implementation of the nuclear agreement, in which case Iran will be further pushed into Russia's embrace. - Even if the nuclear agreement is implemented, Russia's decision to exploit the prevailing anti-Western and anti-American sentiment among high-level Iranian decision-makers and IRGC military commanders is currently perceived as the lifting of the ban as a 'translation of political will' at the leadership level of both Iran and Russia. - Ultimately, if we consider this a simple transaction, in a situation where the U.S. is no longer seeking to establish a missile defense system in Europe and near Russia's borders, by selling the S-300 missile system and providing unlimited post-sale services, the Russians convert a useless commodity into usable dollars, making this a win-win deal for Russia that alleviates the burden of U.S. and European sanctions against it. - From a long-term strategic perspective, Vladimir Putin's decision aligns with his other regional actions, such as his provocations in Eastern Ukraine, and continues to expand Russia's political, economic, and military influence in neighboring countries, thereby developing strategic depth and moving defensive lines away from Russia's current geographical borders.