Saad Hariri: Lebanon's New Prime Minister; What Will Hezbollah's Share in the Cabinet Be?

After two and a half years of political paralysis in Lebanon regarding the election of the country's thirteenth president, we are now witnessing a significant acceleration in the developments in this small yet important country. This acceleration can be traced back to the election of the new president (Michel Aoun) on October 31, 2016, and his subsequent appointment of Saad Hariri to form a cabinet on November 3. Thus, Lebanon has a new president and a new prime minister in less than a week, and now we must wait to see the composition of the cabinet that Hariri is tasked with forming. Ali Akbar Velayati described Michel Aoun's election, a Hezbollah candidate, as a victory for Hassan Nasrallah. If this is the case, one must ask whether Hariri's appointment (a rival of Nasrallah) to form the cabinet is not a setback for Hezbollah. This question is significant when we remember that Hariri is seriously opposed to Hezbollah on at least two major issues. First, he seeks revenge for his father. Rafik Hariri (Saad Hariri's father) was killed in a terrorist incident in 2005, which Saad attributes to Hezbollah and Syria. Second, Saad Hariri is strongly opposed to Syrian influence in Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah's intervention in the Syrian civil war on behalf of Bashar al-Assad. As we know, Saad Hariri is politically opposed to Syria (an ally of Tehran and Hezbollah) and is supported by Saudi Arabia. He was born in Riyadh and holds Saudi citizenship. His wife and three children reside in Saudi Arabia and spend little time in Lebanon. His entry into politics came after his father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was killed in a bombing incident. Upon entering politics and serving as prime minister from 2009 to 2011, he pointed the finger at Syria and Hezbollah for his father's assassination. Consequently, his cabinet fell after many ups and downs due to Hezbollah withdrawing its ministers from the cabinet. Therefore, it remains to be seen how Hariri, with his experience from the previous failure of his premiership, will be able to form a cabinet that is not susceptible to collapse as before. The difficulty Hariri faces in forming his cabinet stems from the fact that, like his previous cabinet, it will be a coalition government. Thus, he has a challenging path of political negotiations ahead with other parties and political movements, especially Hezbollah. Up to this point, the differences between Hariri and Hezbollah on the two mentioned issues are serious. It is clear that if he seeks to identify his father's killers or if he wants to create a distance between Hezbollah and Syria, he will practically face Hezbollah's obstruction in forming his cabinet. The coming days will show whether these two rival factions, one led by Hariri and the other by Nasrallah, have reached a common understanding for cooperation to save Lebanon from its current situation. If such a common understanding has not been achieved, Hariri's government will either fail to form a coalition cabinet or, if formed, will lack the stability necessary to govern the country. As mentioned, there are serious disagreements between Saad Hariri and Nasrallah, one concerning the assassination of Rafik Hariri and the other regarding Hezbollah's support for Bashar al-Assad. In this regard, we must wait to see how many ministers Hezbollah will have in Hariri's cabinet and whether Hariri will succeed in forming a coalition cabinet. If so, how long will his cabinet last? The difficulties of Hezbollah's presence in the cabinet Although Tehran is pleased with the election of Hezbollah's candidate, Michel Aoun, as president of Lebanon, it is unlikely that it is satisfied with Hariri's premiership. It should not be forgotten that the presidency of Lebanon is more of a ceremonial position, while the prime minister's position is executive and holds more power than the president. Regardless of the disagreements between Hariri and Nasrallah, it should not be forgotten that due to Riyadh's efforts, Hezbollah is now classified as a terrorist organization by two important entities: the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Following these provocative actions by Riyadh against Hezbollah, Nasrallah described Saudi Arabia, alongside Israel, as a factor of "sedition" in Lebanon. He also stated that "there are some Lebanese groups that hope the decisive storm operation [Saudi military operation against the Houthis] will be repeated in Lebanon as it was in Yemen." Most importantly, it should not be overlooked that Saad Hariri is tasked with forming a cabinet and possibly inviting Hezbollah to participate in it at a time when Lebanese banks have placed Hezbollah under banking sanctions at the request of the U.S. government. According to the sanctions currently imposed by Lebanese banks on Hezbollah-affiliated entities and individuals, even the bank accounts of two Hezbollah representatives in parliament have been subjected to banking sanctions. Therefore, even if Hariri has the will to form his coalition cabinet with the presence of Hezbollah members, he will face challenges. Despite all these complex situations that have arisen for Hezbollah both within Lebanon and in the Syrian war, it cannot be denied that Hezbollah is an important and influential player in the internal equations of this country, making it practically impossible to ignore. With all this in mind, we must wait to see whether Hezbollah will be able to secure a significant share of the cabinet after bringing its candidate (Michel Aoun) to the presidency. Simply put, the composition of Hariri's coalition government will be a political weighing of the influence of each political faction, especially Hezbollah.