Sadegh Larijani's Code for Maintaining the Ceremonial Role of the Assembly of Experts

The fifth round of elections for the Assembly of Experts has become the most competitive election in the history of this assembly. In this round, 801 individuals registered to participate in the elections, of which 16 are women. The number of registered candidates has increased by 62% compared to the fourth round of elections. The competitive landscape is not only characterized by a relatively diverse range of candidates among the political factions of the regime and the quantitative growth of registered volunteers but also by the issues raised and the definition of the Assembly's functions and its relationship with the leadership, which has added to the sensitivities and alignments. The main divide is over the perception of the leadership's performance. Sadegh Larijani Amoli's discussions in response to comments made by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and reformists and critics of appointed institutions provide a suitable context for understanding the differences. The result of the Guardian Council's assessment will determine the level of competitiveness in the fifth round of the Assembly of Experts elections. Although it is predictable that, regardless of how restrictive it acts, the competitive arena will be relatively greater than in previous elections, there is also a possibility that the Guardian Council may act beyond the norm and even prevent Rafsanjani from playing a role in the elections, effectively eliminating him. The reformist-moderate bloc does not have a comprehensive competition plan and seems more focused on forming a strong faction with the presence of 'generals' while also keeping an eye on collaboration with moderate conservatives to disrupt the existing configuration in the Assembly of Experts to the detriment of hardline and traditional conservatives. Therefore, the dominant power considers this minimal presence a threat, and as Mohammad Reza Bahonar, a prominent conservative member, has described, the presence of a noisy group of ten in the Assembly of Experts and playing a discordant tune is also seen as troublesome. After the announcement of the results of the qualifications review by the Assembly of Experts, it will become clear how much the reformist and moderate bloc can play a role in the Assembly. In the third round of the Assembly of Experts elections held during the reformist government, the reformists had a serious plan to influence the elections, but widespread disqualifications deprived them of this opportunity, leading the Combatant Clergy Association to refrain from submitting an electoral list in protest. However, two theoretical and discursive issues have overshadowed the elections: the issue of the council-based leadership in the post-Khamenei era and how the Assembly of Experts will oversee the leadership and its subordinate institutions. Sadegh Larijani's statements, asserting that the Assembly of Experts does not have the right to oversee the leadership, have sparked controversy. In response to objections, he clarified that, in his view, the oversight of the Experts is limited to determining the leadership and examining the continuity of the necessary conditions for leadership and cannot detail or specifically oversee the leadership's performance and its subordinate institutions or demand accountability from them. He emphasized that according to the constitution, the Experts cannot demand explanations from the institutions under the leadership or conduct investigations like the parliament or the inspection organization from executive institutions. Since Sadegh Larijani is contemplating sitting on the future seat of the leadership, it is understandable that his personal motivations may be involved in this matter. However, his statement is challenging and contentious and conflicts with the concept of oversight. Naturally, examining the continuity of leadership conditions by the Assembly of Experts requires case-by-case examination of the leadership's performance and continuous oversight of the performance of appointed institutions such as the judiciary, the IRGC, and the police to ensure that they operate within their inherent duties and legal powers. Such an approach complicates the exercise of an extralegal and absolute leadership. For this reason, the dominant power seeks to justify the neutral and nominal approach of the Assembly of Experts theoretically and structurally to render its influence on the leadership institution ineffective. The regime has so far attempted to keep the Assembly of Experts neutral and its elections quiet, calm, and free from public attention and influence. Regardless of the inherent conflict between the theory of leadership and oversight by the Experts, Larijani's interpretation, which seems to be supported by the leadership and the majority of conservatives, is unjustifiable and incompatible with the powers of the Assembly of Experts according to the constitution. Conservatives maneuver that the Assembly of Experts elections are beyond the internal political disputes of the regime, but since the Assembly of Experts is the only upper institution over the leadership institution in the Islamic Republic and the leadership operates at the highest level of politics in the power bloc, competition among political factions in the Assembly of Experts elections is necessary to ensure oversight over the overall policymaking processes of the regime in its appropriate form. The claim of the elective nature of all components of the regime, including the leadership, becomes meaningful indirectly when the composition of the Assembly of Experts reflects public opinion rather than becoming a factor for distinction and division between elected and appointed institutions, with the public having no effective role in directing and shaping it. This paradox remained hidden during the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini and under the influence of his charismatic image but became prominent during the exercise of leadership by Khamenei. However, relying on the flawed cycle of oversight by the Guardian Council (the selection of the leader by the Guardian Council, the selection of the Guardian Council's jurists by the leader, and the qualification of candidates for the Assembly of Experts by the Guardian Council) and engineering the elections, he has so far managed this divide and prevented any limitations on his extensive intervention in governance. However, the elections and the possibility of determining future leadership in the fifth Assembly of Experts have activated this divide. Therefore, Sadegh Larijani's remarks and the warnings of hardline conservatives regarding the possibility of a larger upheaval than the 2009 presidential election are a code for maintaining the ceremonial and neutral function of the Assembly of Experts. Accordingly, it is expected that the strictness in this round of the Assembly of Experts elections will be beyond the norm. The issue of council-based leadership, although denied by some moderate forces like Alavi, the Minister of Intelligence, has supporters among the officials of the Islamic Republic. However, this approach faces constitutional challenges, but there is potential for its proposal in the post-Khamenei era, although the likelihood of its occurrence is low. Another challenge for the dominant power and conservatives is the presence of 'generals' from the coalition of reformists and moderates. Figures like Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hassan Khomeini, and Hassan Rouhani have the capacity to gain first-round votes in the Assembly of Experts elections from Tehran province. In this round, the simultaneous elections of the Assembly of Experts and the parliament will increase the turnout rate, which will work against conservatives and the current dominant faction in the Assembly of Experts. However, the final level of participation will depend on the decisions of the Guardian Council. In the coming weeks, the final list of approved candidates will clarify how the alignments in the Assembly of Experts elections will shape up. Although the significant gap between the Assembly of Experts elections and the criteria for free, fair, and effective elections weakens the possibility for the rival faction to play a decisive role in the future Assembly, raising critical views regarding the current performance of the Assembly of Experts and theorizing for its genuine oversight poses a challenge to religious despotism at a not-so-broad level.