Sanders Again! This Time Thanks to Bill Clinton

Perhaps Bill Clinton wanted to make amends. Of course, he claims he had no such intention. Nevertheless, he certainly caused a stir! Loretta Lynch, the U.S. Attorney General, who could have been the last barrier against an indictment against Hillary Clinton in the email case, unexpectedly stated that if the FBI recommends that Clinton be prosecuted, she would not oppose it. The series of events over the past week suggests that Bill Clinton was not without influence in Ms. Lynch's decision-making. In fact, the story of Ms. Lynch and the Clinton family quickly snowballed into a devastating avalanche; a saga that began last Monday with a seemingly simple meeting on the tarmac of Phoenix Airport. At this airport, it appears that the planes of Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch were briefly parked next to each other by coincidence. At this time, Bill Clinton was leaving Phoenix while Loretta Lynch was arriving in the city. However, while both planes were on the runway, Mr. Clinton's escort vehicles approached the Attorney General's plane, and as security sources told American media, he disregarded security protocols and exited his vehicle to approach the Attorney General's staircase. He shook hands with the head of the Attorney General's protection unit at the top of the stairs and met with her in what seemed to be a chance encounter. A few minutes of small talk with the Attorney General and her husband, discussing the well-being of children and grandchildren, and then goodbye! Bill Clinton returned to his own plane, and they each went their separate ways. Very soon, news of this seemingly simple meeting took on a political dimension in the media—especially in the media opposed to Hillary Clinton. Ms. Lynch is considered one of the most important judicial officials in the investigation of Hillary Clinton's emails. In this case, the FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) is examining the possibility of a crime committed by Hillary Clinton herself. Ms. Clinton, while serving as Secretary of State, used her personal servers to send and store work emails, which contained classified information from the U.S. government, in violation of the internal regulations of the State Department. The FBI will announce its recommendation to the Attorney General at the end of this investigation in the coming weeks. In such circumstances, Bill Clinton's meeting with someone who currently holds the reins and has a decisive role regarding Hillary Clinton is interpreted as an attempt to influence this case. Simply put, Bill Clinton is accused of trying to play favoritism for Hillary Clinton through this meeting and his friendly banter with the Attorney General and her husband. The repeated explanations from the Attorney General do not seem to have been convincing to the public. She insisted that no significant discussions took place during this meeting, that it was just ordinary pleasantries, and that there was no mention of emails. After this meeting, Ms. Lynch faced such media pressure that some even called for her resignation from this position. However, instead of suffering a scandalous downfall from her position as Attorney General, Ms. Lynch, with a simple strategy, lifted the heavy burden of this meeting off her shoulders. On Friday—just four days after her chance meeting with Bill Clinton—she announced that at the end of the FBI's investigation into Hillary Clinton's case, she would not oppose any recommendation for potential indictment against Clinton. Thus, she poured cold water on everyone’s expectations and emphasized that the email case of Hillary Clinton would most likely not have a political ending. Prior to this development, if the FBI recommended that Clinton be indicted and Loretta Lynch opposed this recommendation, not only would the issue of Clinton's prosecution be off the table, but public opinion would also have been more easily reconciled with the matter, as such an event had precedent. The last example was the investigation into David Petraeus, the former CIA chief, who ultimately could have faced the serious charge of 'betrayal' based on the FBI's recommendation, but with the direct intervention of the Attorney General, lighter charges—such as violations of regulations—were considered against him. Given Loretta Lynch's decision, everyone will now be waiting for the FBI's review of the case. These investigations are ongoing, and the FBI has already interrogated many of Ms. Clinton's close associates. However, Hillary Clinton herself has not yet faced the FBI interrogator. (Updated: Ms. Clinton finally voluntarily answered FBI questions for three and a half hours on Saturday. Read the news report about this event here.) If the FBI ultimately concludes that Hillary Clinton personally committed a crime and should be prosecuted, she will have to defend herself in court; an event that could effectively mark the end of her campaign for the presidency. With this in mind, if an indictment is brought against Hillary Clinton, what will happen to the Democratic Party's nomination? Will Bernie Sanders become the nominee? The answer to this question is not easy. Neither the Democratic Party's regulations nor U.S. electoral laws prohibit a candidate from campaigning if they are indicted. Hillary Clinton can legally continue her campaign while simultaneously pursuing her case in court against Donald Trump. However, aside from the legal and party regulatory aspects, how likely is such an event? The answer to the second question depends on various factors, some of which will become clear at that time; factors such as public opinion reaction and Hillary Clinton's standing in polls. For example, if after an indictment, Hillary Clinton does not withdraw from the race and simultaneously leads in polls against her Republican rival, and the email controversy does not affect her popularity, her nomination by the Democratic Party will be more likely. However, if in this situation, polls show that her supporters have turned away from her and are no longer willing to vote for her, and the prospect of the Democratic Party's defeat in the upcoming November elections and a potential presidency for Donald Trump becomes more pronounced, Ms. Clinton's situation will become seriously difficult. In such a case, even her insistence on remaining in the race may not help her, and she could lose the nomination to Bernie Sanders due to a shift in the votes of influential party members. All these speculations come at a time when so far, the issue of emails and the FBI's investigation into Hillary Clinton's conduct has affected her reputation, leading some segments of American society to distrust her. Under such circumstances, the likelihood that a formal indictment could confront her campaign with a devastating crisis is very serious. In other words, few believe that Hillary Clinton can continue her campaign if faced with formal charges and legal proceedings. Even many of her supporters hope that the email issue will conclude favorably in the FBI's investigation and will not go to court. Of course, if the FBI explicitly states at the end of the investigation that she is innocent, this could turn into a new campaign asset and energize her campaign. The FBI's investigation into Clinton has various dimensions, ranging from violations of email usage regulations to handling classified information, to cover-ups and the potential provision of false information to mislead investigations, all of which are various charges Clinton faces in these investigations. Less than a month remains until the Democratic Party convention and the official nomination of Hillary Clinton. This convention is set to take place from July 25 (4th of Mordad) to July 28 (7th of Mordad). So far, the outcome of the voting at this convention is clear, and it is expected that for the first time in history, a woman will secure the Democratic Party nomination. If this does not happen due to the FBI's investigations, the course of history will change towards another horizon, and Bernie Sanders may succeed in standing on the brink of the White House as the first Jewish candidate. If this happens, Bernie Sanders' semi-dormant campaign will rise like a phoenix from the ashes of the intra-party competition to soar into battle against Trump.