Saudi Energy Minister's Advisor: Iran May Only Be Able to Export One Million Barrels of Oil

The advisor to the Saudi Minister of Energy stated that the likelihood of a complete halt to Iran's oil exports due to U.S. sanctions is low. Ibrahim Al-Muhanna, who has served as an advisor to the Saudi Ministry of Energy for years, said on Tuesday, September 6, at a conference in Norway that Iran could likely export one million barrels of oil per day. Currently, Iran exports more than double this amount. He also deemed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb by Iran in retaliation for sanctions as 'unlikely', stating that Iran is not even capable of closing these straits in a limited manner. He added that such an action could harm Iran as much as it harms others, as Iran may be able to continue exporting one million barrels of oil per day. Over 18.5 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and nearly five million barrels pass through Bab-el-Mandeb near Yemen's borders. Recently, Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted two Saudi oil tankers in Bab-el-Mandeb, causing Saudi Arabia to temporarily halt oil exports from this strait. U.S. oil sanctions against Iran are set to take effect on November 4. Initially, the U.S. stated that it would bring Iran's oil exports to zero, but later announced that it is trying to convince buyers to reduce or stop their oil purchases from the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, based on a new report from the OPEC monitoring committee, member compliance rates were about 147% in May, 120% in June, and around 109% last month. Thus, allied countries have added about one million barrels to their oil production during this period. In contrast, Iran's daily oil production decreased by 85,000 barrels in June and July, while Venezuela's production has decreased even more. According to OPEC statistics, Saudi Arabia alone has increased its production by nearly 400,000 barrels per day, and Russia has added over 250,000 barrels. Iran is strongly protesting the increased production from Saudi Arabia, Gulf countries, and Russia, stating that those countries that have excessively reduced production should be the only ones allowed to increase production.