Scientists: The Effects of Drought in the Amazon Will Last for Three Years

The owner of a guesthouse in Brazil says that drought has impacted the Amazon rainforest. According to a report by Reuters, Raimundo Lithe de Souza wrote that one morning in October, when he woke up, he noticed that the level of the river behind his house had dropped by about 30 centimeters overnight, and his boat was stuck in the mud. He said that over the weeks, rotting fish carcasses appeared on the shores of the Jaraki River (a tributary of the Rio Negro), the bodies of snakes and crocodiles were found in the forests, and rodents were struggling in the mud to find water. Souza stated, 'In my 37 years of life, I have never seen anything like this happen to our river.' The drought caused by climate change has brought the water levels of the Amazon River and four of its largest tributaries to their lowest levels in at least half a century in northern Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and parts of Venezuela and Colombia. This has led to the death of river dolphins, which live in freshwater or brackish water and are endangered, and has caused deadly erosion of riverbanks. Since rivers are the backbone of transportation throughout the Amazon region, drought and reduced river levels have disrupted access to food and medicine in dozens of cities. According to scientists, this drought is also considered a global climatic threat, as it could double the mortality rate of the largest trees in the rainforest and release vast amounts of greenhouse gas carbon stored in the trees' wood into the atmosphere. The Amazon, the largest rainforest in the world, is regarded by scientists as a bulwark against climate change, as its dense vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide from the air and releases oxygen. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned on Friday, December 1, at the UN climate change conference COP28, 'Even if we stop cutting down a single tree, [the Amazon] could still reach its tipping point.' The situation may worsen; experts predict even more severe drought next year. Reuters interviewed nine scientists who said that the drought, which began in April, is likely to weaken the annual rainy season in the region, which is now due, and that these conditions will continue until the next rainy season in late 2024. Five of these scientists told Reuters that it is unlikely the Amazon will fully recover from the drought before 2026, even under the best possible conditions, as it will likely take two good rainy seasons to restore the natural moisture to the forest soils. Five researchers predicting recovery of the Amazon rainforest in 2026 say that if the 'El Niño' climate cycles extend, the effects of the drought could last longer. The natural phenomenon 'El Niño' disrupts global weather every two to seven years, warming the waters of the Pacific coasts in South America, redirecting rains there, and conversely reducing rainfall in the Amazon. Four of these scientists told Reuters that given the uncertainty in any long-term weather predictions, accurately forecasting when the Amazon rainforest will recover from this drought is difficult.