Seeking Justice for the 2009 Elections and Karroubi's Challenge

Hojjatoleslam Mehdi Karroubi's hunger strike was an unexpected event that stirred the political landscape of Iran for a day. The cleric of the Green Movement, known for his courage and straightforwardness, brought the issue of the 2009 election protests back into the spotlight with his decisive action. His move highlighted the fact that the Green Movement still has a latent existence and has not ended contrary to the government's propaganda and the political approach of some reformists. Karroubi's dry hunger strike was organized around two main demands: 'the removal of security guards from his residence' and 'a public trial.' The fulfillment of the first demand led to the breaking of his hunger strike. However, the prospect of achieving the second demand remains ambiguous despite vague assurances. The vulnerability of the Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) institution and the judicial and security apparatus of the regime, along with the unmanageable risks of addressing the controversial 2009 election case, make it highly unlikely that the regime would agree to a public trial under normal circumstances. Therefore, it is improbable that Karroubi, as a politically experienced individual with extensive knowledge of the power bloc's behavior, has not considered this issue. Thus, Karroubi's objective should be sought beyond the apparent meaning of demanding a public trial. In fact, a deeper exploration of the matter reveals that he had several goals in mind. First, he made it clear in his continued correspondence that his will to engage in politics during house arrest is serious. By risking his life at the age of nearly 80, he sent a message to the regime, especially to the leadership, that the walls of house arrest and numerous restrictions cannot prevent his political activism and at least symbolic presence in the political arena. Through sporadic and coherent positioning, he seeks to maintain the alternative position of the Green Movement. The continuation of this approach within a rational framework, with cost-benefit calculations and appropriate feedback in society, and rebuilding communication with the Green Movement's base will increasingly reduce the advantages of house arrest for the dominant power sector. In this process, critical voices against house arrest within the power bloc have become relatively louder, and the likelihood of ending house arrest increases as costs rise against benefits. This point becomes even more significant when all government efforts to silence the Green Movement and force its symbolic leaders into submission have reached a dead end. Conservative reformists and moderates have also failed to find intermediate solutions based on mutual gain. However, the main message of Karroubi's movement is a political action challenging the perpetrators and instigators of the 2009 election's deviation from its natural path and the orchestrators of the bloody and violent suppression of peaceful post-election protests. After enduring nearly seven years of house arrest, with a body weakened by problems but a firm spirit, he conveyed to the regime that he stands firm on his positions and that his issue is with the political system. He seeks sustainable change in the current political situation and is willing to bear the costs to achieve this. The hunger strike caused Mehdi Karroubi's name to be broadcast in a supportive and converging manner from the parliamentary podium to society. The swift acceptance of his demand also reflected the virtue of struggle and resistance, which the government has succumbed to and is vulnerable against. Of course, the audience of his words is not only the leadership and aligned conservatives. His action, whether intentionally or not, has had negative repercussions for Hassan Rouhani and the moderate reformists led by Mohammad Khatami. The difference in Karroubi's positioning against their conservative practical approach has created a challenge. During Karroubi's hunger strike, Rouhani faced heavy pressure from part of the electorate and was increasingly criticized for his failure to resolve the house arrest issue. His delayed action to remove agents from the house arrest site and deter interference from the Ministry of Intelligence forces does not allow the realization of Karroubi's first and short-term demand to lead to the satisfaction of the target community. A significant portion of Rouhani's voters still expect him to take more qualitative and quantitative actions regarding the lifting of house arrest. Failure to meet this expectation will lead to Rouhani being accused of breaking promises and deceit in the minds of that community. Overall, Karroubi's hunger strike was a successful and calculated action that targeted the message of the May 29, 2017 elections for change in the current political situation. The demand for a public trial has the capacity for continuous emphasis over time and can serve as a mobilizing platform for the revival of the Green Movement's activities and facilitate the end of house arrest. The main meaning of Karroubi's insistence is to establish that the goal is not just the physical lifting of house arrest and freedom, but the discovery of the truth and the execution of justice in the case of the 2009 election protests is the main issue.